....hasn't moved much at all yet in response to their expected growth, and guidance. Listen to the Conf Call...skip to the last question in the Q&A....amazing.
Just a few days ago, analysts moved up their estimate for the next two quarters to .21/share for September, and .26/share for December. I'll say the obvious....that's pretty cheap for a fast growing seven buck stock.
And management stated in the conf call that due to their strong balance sheet (and cash raise six months back), they won't need to raise any cash in the next year plus...which is always a bit of a worry for growing property and casualty stocks.
Insider buying continued from lower levels into the mid sixes, and now continues again in the low sevens. Reminds me of the constant insider buying in FNHC from under five bucks into the low twenties.
Still not much risk yet built into the stock price. I mean sure, you can always have a bad quarter due to a bad storm or two...but that would just present another great buying opp. Given estimates of .47/share in the second half of this year, insider buying, strong balance sheet; KINS should move up into the double digits by year end.....and higher in 2015.
I like KINS a lot.
Management has stated over and over that they cannot (or will not) cut their R&D.....so there can't be sustainable profits in the near term. Their markets is too small.
While I don't want ACTS to spend their cash on buying a money losing company, you'd think that after all these years, and all the times there's been market weakness and cyclical weakness in this sector; ACTS could have found a nice profitable company to buy on the cheap with all their cash. Instead, they've bought the R&D departments of other companies....for tens of millions of dollars. And have gotten a horrible return on that investment based on their current operations.
Just take the darn thing private at $3.00, or heck $2.80. It would cost you what, $50 million. And you still would have near two hundred million in your kitty to putz around with forever on this hobby of yours.
Wonderful to hear about the addition to you family!!!
I've actually heard of CONX and their test kit before, from another strong investor a couple of weeks back. I looked them up quickly, but never followed up. You know, busy looking up so many stocks,especially referrals from others....hard to keep up. Anyway, I'll look further.
On the recommendation front...I dunno. MUEL earnings were strong, I have a position but havent added. KINS (northeast based prop and cas insurer) has earnings in Thursday....if it were to drop to $6.50 or under prior, I'd recommend (and I'd add). There are others but dont want to clog up APT thread with Off-topic stuff. Certainly lots of earnings coming out on the micro's next week.....should be fun.
hey hope, I added some at $2.22 after earnings.....I thought earnings were solid. Progress in both segments for the first time in a while. Sure, this mini-move may be b/c of ebola (as nfpcomp states)....but its also possible that some want to get in b/c of the strong quarter APT posted, and the decent prospects of a strong(er) September quarter.
If APT could somehow pull off a straight-laced five or six-cent Sept quarter, then APT should head straight to three. And if more investors start believing that APT's prospects are high...due to what appears to be APT taking market share in their building products segment while at the same time turning around the long dormant protective gear segment...then APT could head up towards three in the next month or two.
And with APT, you never know when or if some scare, like ebola (or the more mundane avian flu's and influenzae) , will bring the momo's in to chase the ask up to whatever level, whether APT benefits financial or not.
I NEVER stated nor believed FNHC would lose money in q2. I said they could lose money in q3 when the bulk of the reinsurance expense hits the books. I said I was impressed with their q2 earnings..better than I expected.
One reason FNHC sold off hard was because in the CC management detailed that an additional $13 million dollars in reinsurance expense would hit the books in q3 (which was my point several weeks before earnings). FNHC described it incorrectly...it'll be less than $13 million b/c one-t hird already hit in q2. I think FNHC's confusing points about this in the CC is another reason for the selloff.
RE 'my inconsistency' I said $19.50 is a great price for a trade, and posted that as I was buying at $19.46 for all to see. I stated weeks ago I no longer liked the sector as much as I had, b/c of greater competition will lead to lowered pricing, And, in fact, in the CC, FNHC stated they were lowering their pricing starting in September by 3%. Anyway, FNHC had pulled back over 20% from where I sold in a very short time, had come out with a quarter BETTER than I expected, and had just price a secondary....so yes I took the opportunity pick up 9,000 shares for a trade premarket. I don't call that inconsistency, I call that taking advantage of an opportunity in the short run.
As for my bona fides as a value investor...I explained why I thought FNHC was not as good a value. I bought FNHC in the 3's and added more in the 2's...and more on the way up. My posts from that time can be found... I was the only person posting positively about FNHC. I sold when it moved up tenfold from my low buys, and said it could be wrong. Not many of my picks go up 1000% in two years, but geeze, not sure how you can say I'm not a value investor b/c I took a 1000% gain.
RE management....I have stated that management is the sector's best...I didnt sell due to management, but it was one reason I was happy to buy back.
I believe I answered most of your questions in my prior post, but...
1. They didnt have a choice because the decided they need to raise cash...read the offering documents.
1. $19.50 was reasonable, as mentioned in my earlier post, since secondaries are priced under the price of the stock at the time of the offering. The stock traded in the 19's just the day before, and, so a $19.50 pricing was reasonable.
2. re why did they have to wait for earnings to come out? Because the earnings report offers tons of new information. If you're within a few weeks of the earnings report, its normal to wait and give shareholders who may be buying lots of shares the latest information regarding the stock they are purchasing. So yes, in some ways secondaries are effected by earnings release dates.
3. 19.50 share price - imo, it was reasonable for FNHC to assume that their would not be an very unfavorable reaction to a very strong earnings report. Therefore scheduling the offering post earnings was not unreasonable.
4. Hurricanes effect on share price - I believe that the vast majority of shareholders would agree that a damaging hurricane event would send, at least in the short term, the share price of FNHC lower....from whatever level it might have been.
5. Why not in May? I don't know. Maybe because they were still working on their Monarch initiative (one of the reasons for the secondary) and felt they needed to finalize plans and divulge this information to potential investors before an offering. If FNHC did the offering in the first half of May, when FNHC traded between $19 and $22.50...mostly in the $20.xy's, the offering would have been near the $19.50 level, same as the current offering.
6. Why $21's and not $25 or $30? Imo, $25 or $30 was not as equally likely as $21/$22 by virtue of the shareprice...which was around $20.
7. "Timing the market is not a game I want management to be engaged in"......yet you are saying they timed their secondary poorly.
...followed buy a very strong second half. Seems like a decent buy here, especially considering the second half strength...and recent iinsider buying. I like this one longer term as well.
at these levels. I bought a few of this fallin knife at $9.60. Trading at what, less than 1.2 times book; they sounded positive in last quarter's CC. Should have a decent quarter. Competitor PCCC just reported a strong quarter....and PCMI trades at much lower multiples. I think PCCC trades around 1.8 times book, vs PCMI;s 1.2 times book. PCCC trades at a way higher p/e then PCMI. I dont see the big reason for that.
Earnings on Thursday, so we'll see soon enuf.
scott, not, I may have sold some at $26, but more in the$25's, and a large amount around $24. Since the I made a two trades, including buying some premarket on Friday.
Price to book is even lower then you 1.9 now that they raised their cash.
And as I mentioned often in earlier posts , FNHC has a great management group....FNHC is best of breed for Florida insurers
I won't go through the reasoning, I've discusses it before, and dont want to seem like a basher. But I dont like FNHC as much because I don't like the sector as much, dont like the risk reward as much. Thats why I am trying to short term trade it. At $19.5, it was getting pretty cheap anyways. And long history of watching Florida insurers, I've noticed that you buy the secondary offering selloff on the day its priced. When they were selling it for less then the offering price pmkt, it was a no-brainer.
Anyways, I could be completely wrong, and FNHC could shoot up to $30 soon. But imo, the most important thing for any investor is to be comfortable with your holdings......be able to sleep at night without worrying. Once you start worrying too much you make all the wrong decisions, like sell into a falling share price for a weak reason, etc.
So I may be wrong re the Florida insurers...or I might buy back a lot more sharees sometime (fully and not just for a trade). But right now I am a trader.
I do like KINS still, in spite of its mini move from where I bought.
s12, they really didnt have a choice. The stock was in the $19's yesterday, so pricing at $19.50 was very reasonable, imo....not much of a discount to current price. They really couldnt do it in the past three weeks because they had to wait for earnings to come out. And problem right now is they really cant wait since we're in hurricane season, there's always a chance for a hurricane or two, which could have sent the price even lower. And we know these guys dont like taking much risk.
Maybe if they waited a few more weeks they have gotten $21 or $21.5/share....but that could go the other way too. If they were able to get $21.25, they'd have 167,000 fewer sharesissued in the offering. Not nothing, but not too significant either.
pretty crappy guidance for the remainder of this year though. By my calculations, SFY expects production to drop a bunch in q3 and q4. Check my numbers, but SFY stated that production was 2.94 MMBoe in q1, 3.45MMBoe in q2, and the estimate for q3 is 2.82 MMBoe, and the estimate for q4 is 2.69MMBoe. Plus, they estimate lease operating costs to increase abut 33% from q2 to the second half of '14. Please check my numbers.
FNHC may bounce back strongly. Its is imo the best run of the Florida prop and casualty insurers, with I believe the best reinsurance coverage, and an excellent overall control of expenses while at the same time expanding dramatically.
So what were the negatives? My guess is the following 'negatives' sent FNHC down (and again, it could bounce right back up):
1. Seems this is a common reaction after strong earnings amongst all Florida insurers, a scratch your head sell-off, and then an eventual rebound.
2. Along with earnings, FNHC announced a $40 million secondary offering. Lots of people sell automatically at the notice of any stock offering and wait till it prices to reenter. Plus, FNHC just had a large offering around seven months ago, so that's two very close together. The good news is its not that large, and their growth is still very strong....so it makes sense that they have to fund growth and their Monarch initiative coming up in five months.
3. In the CC they announced that Florida approved a 3% RATE CUT for federated. I mentioned in recent posts that I thought rate cuts would be a trend going forward, due to huge sector profits and more competition entering the market. 3% is not huge, but its not trivial.
4. In the CC the CEO discussed the current reinsurance rate increase, and stated that reinsurance expense is increasing from 17 million per quarter to 30 million going in the coming third quarter. He really didnt make clear (this is my understanding) that 1/3 of that increase already took effect in q2...so its really an increase of $8 million plus for q3 compared to q2 (my understanding anyways). That is still a big increase. He also said the third quarter is in general their slowest growth quarter.
I didnt get the feel it has anything to do with Canadian housing. My understanding, from the conf call, is that Monarch is being set up because at the moment, FNHC accepts only a small percent of the policies its agents offer to FNHC....I think they said 12%, but not 100% sure. Monarch, will be a prop and casualty insurer just like FNHC specializing in Florida policies, but Monarch will be set up to accept a slightly 'riskier' profile, which in turn means it will charge a higher rate than Federated. I like it because it will allow FNHC through Monarch to accept another type of business, and their agents will be happier b/c more of the policies they send to FNHCwill be accepted.
I think its a good move for FNHC, but I dont think its a gamebreaker or anything. Wont start till 2015, and I'm sure part of the reason for the secondary they announced today is to fund Monarch.
I bought some back after the Monarch announcement which I like, but nowhere near what I had. I had 33,000 shares during the quarter, now much much less.
hey bottomsup, remember, my post was from January 21, responding to their just released q4 2013 earnings. In that earnings pr the CEO stated the following (below), which to me seem happy about the turnaround, and optimistic going forward. Just a few weeks later, they announced a special dividend. However, the first quarter reports wasn't what I was looking for (also not really 'optimistic' like q4's) so I sold around four bucks. I got around $3.40, plus I captured the .25/share divvy, overall did fine. but I was hoping for lots more when I bought.
From '13 q4 report issued in mid January:
“...2013 was another milestone year for us. Sales momentum was strong during the fourth quarter and our merchandise as a whole performed well throughout the year. We continued to see positive results from strong product margins as well as new market penetration. Our plan is to continue to build on our momentum with growth in sales, margin improvements, and the execution of our broad promotional sales strategies and further investments in e-commerce and brand awareness. This outlook reflects the intense foundational work we've done over the last three years, which has us well-positioned to grow the company."
In Florida, if you are an insurance company, it is not legal to have 'two sets of prices' for the same home/wind insurance policies. So you can't have 'premier tier' pricing, and then 'lower tier pricing for a separate book of business that is somewhat higher risk and/or higher cost. Actually, I'm not sure its illegal,but FNHC management said its not allowable to them. Therefore, FNHC is starting this new jv, under a different umbrella (Monarch), which in essence will offer their agents more opportunities to accept policies, for these somewhat riskier, higher cost, higher priced business. This wont begin until 2015, and they may raise some capital to fund their startup costs.