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Gannett Co., Inc. (GCI) Message Board

fabulouspoodle 43 posts  |  Last Activity: May 27, 2015 6:12 PM Member since: Apr 7, 1999
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  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 27, 2015 6:12 PM Flag

    ulp...noone on a message boar has a 5 year plan. There's always the possibility that MCZ tanks at some point and howie gets an opp to buy back even steven. But it is kinda funny reading the absolute desperation in his posts to somehow drive the stock lower. You can almost see the sweat marks on his posts as he grabs a napkin to wipe his brow.

  • Reply to

    RCKY

    by hopeful200 May 19, 2015 2:11 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 27, 2015 5:58 PM Flag

    ...I added 1333 at $18.37.

    Nice to see SGMA perking up over the past few months...fy end 4/30 won't come out for a while.....maybe six to eight weeks, so hoping she meanders higher during this long quiet period.

    As for RCKY, I think the retreat to the $20.xy's was a normal pullback, or just noise. IMO, the move lower was related to the recall....which may have some non-trivial (but still small) effect on the coming quarter, but would seem to be meaningless in the mid and long term.

    If you get a chance, take a look at KINS, a New York (areas around NYC) based Prop and Cas Insurer. Earnings were poor last quarter due to an extremely severe winter, but earnings should bounce back strongly, imo, KINS should post around .30/quarter going forward.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 27, 2015 12:21 PM Flag

    empry,

    fact is, you sold at the low, and are so frustrated that the share price of MCZ, which you luvved so much for so long..and followed and posted about positively for such an extended period of time, is now well above your sell point.

    As an intelligent investor, you know that the next earnings report will be near MCZ' guidance of a loss of one million or greater. You know that the stock has already reacted to this guidance. You also know that sales for this quarter are meaningless since in just a few months after earnings announcement we will be entering a new phase in MCZ' growth which will be hugely enhanced by what we have to estimate are hugely profitable RB sales.

    The period of the huge sales and earnings increases may be preceded...perhaps in this summer...by a slew of news items related to Rock Band and perhaps other initiatives, probably far more press releases than in the past several years. The share price may react very kindly to all these releases. So, heck, even if Rock Band turns out to be not as successful as some on this board are hoping for....the share price may nevertheless increase to higher levels prior to seeing any tangible earnings success.

    So the only thing you have left is to continue to attempt to negatively effect the price, and perhaps then you will be able to get back in at a level lower than your sales price.....or perhaps just have the satisfaction of seeing that the price you sold MCZ at is no longer way above its share price.

    We'll see if you are successful.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 22, 2015 6:46 PM Flag

    zoomlik,I understand the thought behind waiting the March quarters numbers to come out before buying,,,since I know, you know, and everyone else knows the first quarter will be ugly (one or two million dollar loss, and 16.5 - 17.5 in revenue...or something like that)....after all, that's the guidance given by the CEO in February, when 40% of the quarter was already complete.

    But the flip side is everyone already knows that..and the stock has already reacted to that guidance. So sure, there may be some afterhours and early on selling given the shock value of ugly numbers; but even if they turn out to be uglier than expected......So long as MCZ reiterates its current comments that this Company right now is all about the back half and Holiday season, and so long as they reiterate that they expect a strong back half and Holiday season (given RB and other stuff), then investors like me will be sitting at our computers ready to gobble up any shares that are spooked out of traders hands, and any dip is likely to be short lived.

    Now, if MCZ states that the back half doesn't look strong anymore; then yup, its definitely better to wait....but then you'll have plenty of time to buy...or never buy. But that pessimistic scenario seems unlikely from what MCZ has publicly stated, and in fact what they stated publicly at the Riley conference just a week or so ago....of course MCZ has surprised to the dark side before, so anything's possible.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 22, 2015 6:30 PM Flag

    norwalk, the CEO gave guidance for the March quarter in the last conf call. Basically a loss of one million or a bit more.....caused by slow sales. I mean he did give specific guidance by stating they would not be profitable on an operating basis for the year. That means they gotta lose at least one million, could be more. Revenues should be around seventeen million.

    Personally, I dont think these earnings will effect the price much because everyone knows what to expect and it the back half of the year that will effect MCZ's future. So long as the CEO continues to be optimistic about Holiday Season and new product offerings....I think shareholders will be very anxious to scoop up any shares that may appear on the cheap due to the prima facie ugly numbers, knowing the short term outlook is Very Strong.

    best.

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle May 19, 2015 2:56 PM Flag

    in the low sixes, seems like a strong value.

  • Reply to

    Should go up from here

    by paton May 7, 2015 1:08 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 14, 2015 1:50 PM Flag

    I think the recent weakness is b/c of UIHC's exposure to South Carolina and North Carolina. Tropical storm Ana hit the South Carolina coast directly last week, and then went north into NC. Obviously this is not like a major storm storm hitting Florida, but UIHC has its second largest amount of policies in South Carolina, and fourth most in NC. Not necessarily a severe hit to earnings...like the winter storms that hit Mass, but there should be some claims due to the storm, and some kind of hit to eps.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 13, 2015 6:37 AM Flag

    Can't find a working link either. Whats a 'VGChartz'?

  • Reply to

    This HRTG thing is suuupppperr cheap...

    by fabulouspoodle Apr 23, 2015 6:06 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 8, 2015 8:42 AM Flag

    y.m, KINS will report an awful quarter next week. Its even possible they report a decent sized loss. But the loss should be fully caused by the awful winter weather...KINS (prop and cas insurer) specialized on NY State, particularly Long Island, Westchester, Orange, Rockland counties plus a few other cities like Buffalo. Those areas were hit unbelievably hard by winter storms....including three snowstorms in a row.....the most snow ever.

    However, that really doesnt matter much. You never know about the weather, but that was a one in two hundred year winter weather event............and KINS will probably be around break even. After that (given normalized weather), KINS should start posting .30+ quarters.....quarter after quarter. And they said inthe last conference call that growth should continue for at least the next two years.

    I think KINS is a great buy here.....however, who knows what the earnings reaction will be. I mean KINS already warned they'd be near breakeven due to those winter storms, but a dip on earnings would be another great buy opp. I mean I think KINS is worth between $9.50 and $13.00 on a go forward basis ($9.50 based on a super conservative 1.5 times next years projected book value, and $13 based on a 10 p/e going forward.

    Of course, I've been wrong before, so I could be here.

    good luck.

  • Reply to

    This HRTG thing is suuupppperr cheap...

    by fabulouspoodle Apr 23, 2015 6:06 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 7, 2015 6:44 AM Flag

    Wow, $1.00/share for the quarter....very very solid. And they seem positive about growth going forward. But lets look at HRTG at only a .75/share qtrly performer going forward (25% discount to this quarters earnings). Plug a simple 10 p/e on that and you get a $30 target. And, while HRTG will need to buy more reinsurance for their dramatic growth, which would effect the September quarter; analysts stil have them growing and earning over $3.00 in '16. And thats before they raise up their estimates after this very strong quarter.

    Anyway, as I stated before, seems pretty darn cheap.

  • Reply to

    Really dumping AH

    by dugmalus Apr 30, 2015 4:31 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 3, 2015 8:33 AM Flag

    I'm sure he lightended up in the fours, like many of us. Flip side is I'm pretty sure he bought back way too early and heavy, in the three's, like many of us.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle May 1, 2015 8:00 AM Flag

    they made .68/share excluding the one time losses related to Monarch. Yesterday was an interesting day, I was able to pick up a bunch of shares in the 27's and flip them out a buck higher later in the day....good day to trade.

    The conf call should be interesting.

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Apr 30, 2015 7:22 PM Flag

    good news is that I sold one third of this shlop at $2.80 a few days ago. Bad news is I still own two-thirds.

    I'll buy back the one third for a nice trade. Did the same thing about a month or so ago. Keep on trading this shlop until maybe one day itll head higher. Maybe...one day.

    In the interim, SVing TRade.

  • Reply to

    wazzup wit dis big big early move?

    by fabulouspoodle Apr 29, 2015 9:45 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Apr 29, 2015 10:13 AM Flag

    hey algo...while management is entrenched with good salaries, you can always have a non-hostile takeover so long as the head honcho and a friend or two are offered guaranteed employment contracts.

  • fabulouspoodle by fabulouspoodle Apr 29, 2015 9:45 AM Flag

    ....was RCKY thing mentioned in a newsletter? Or are there some buyout rumours?

  • ....seems like a no brainer short term trade with very little risk (again thats short term). Don't see why HRTG can't get to $25.....they should make over .70 next quarter and around three bucks/share going forward.

  • fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Apr 22, 2015 9:24 PM Flag

    fortunately, MCZ already guided for a loss of over a million bucks, so that big losses should already be built into the price. And, as has been said by others, next quarters is MCZ's historically weakest quarter and well prior to the huge expected year end build up...so its virtually meaningless.

  • Reply to

    I am shocked...

    by b_fr_nk Apr 17, 2015 10:23 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Apr 22, 2015 1:18 PM Flag

    re: "Right on right on right on. Sounds like the only people buying are the people on this board. Who you gonna sell to?"

    ...I'm pretty sure you'll be on the bid, you_so_silly, when this thang finally hits its high, so if I get real lucky, I'll be dumping them on you.

    best.

  • Reply to

    Exceedingly low volume on this news.

    by turn_turn_quasar Apr 21, 2015 9:49 PM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Apr 22, 2015 8:43 AM Flag

    I luve updtab's confidence...simply does not waiver in good or bad times. Plus he's smart and offers quality insights.

    Now, does that uber confidence/optimism make hit the best investor? Who knows. But I bet he does better than 90% of us jabberheads.

    Keep 'em coming uptab.

  • Reply to

    I am shocked...

    by b_fr_nk Apr 17, 2015 10:23 AM
    fabulouspoodle fabulouspoodle Apr 22, 2015 8:36 AM Flag

    I picked up around 400,000 under .40 myself in recent weeks myself...

GCI
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