"I did listen to the conference call and am pretty relaxed and confident myself. I have no interest in closing or reducing my position in MNKD anytime soon so really don't care about the stock's day to day fluctuations. As far as I'm concerned, management is doing everything necessary and the company is precisely where I thought it would be at this point. The stock, meantime,is ridiculously undervalued, relative to both the company's potential and biotechs in general. As I've said all along, investors need to ignore all the noise engulfing this stock and stay focused on the fundamentals. Afrezza is a potential game changer that targets a massive massive therapeutic category. So, what's to worry about? Worst case scenario, you lose a few bucks. I've lost money on other stocks. On the other hand, if things work out as anticipated, the upside potential is considerable... My confidence extends to the partnership search, too." Responding to a question on seeking alpha article dated June 19. Comment was dated November 5.
this is huge imo
- Likely double-bottomed today (vs. 10/9 low)
- Completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from Nov '12 lows (I can't fathom a 100% retrace but....)
- $4.50 ish appears to be a support area (I guess we'll see in the coming days)
Also - mnkd was slammed after hitting a high of $8.70 on 8/14 for no legitimate reason other than shorts needing to take the stock down after clinical results so they could exit without a loss. When this has happened to other stocks I have owned and believed had fundamental merit, I have used the peak in this spike as an upside target to reach (and ultimately exceed) once the bear raid is over. I see mnkd easily reaching this target in the coming months.
I could be proven wrong - but these are some of the indicators I am personally working with and why I took the chance and bought more this morning.
Most importantly - I believe in the fundamentals of this stock. I cannot imagine that this won't be a blockbuster. I have been a marketing exec for Fortune 500 consumer products firms owned by pharma cos., have consulted with Fortune 500 firms on market growth strategy and I believe Afrezza has (or will have) all of the key elements for success:
- Afrezza fills an important, unmet consumer need (this is THE key to market success)
- is targeting a multi-billion dollar market ($9 billion per Exubera) in which it is likely to gain significant share,
- has clear, unique and meaningful advantages/benefits for the consumer that have been fully tested and cannot be easily replicated by competition,
- has strong physician support (86% very likely to prescribe) for Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes
- will have access to global distribution and pharmaceutical marketing expertise (via partnership which I believe is in the bag or at hand)
- can command a premium price
- has strong leadership from Al Mann who has proven success in developing successful products
Now all we need is FDA approval and it's off to the races -feel free to add to my list
Follow me here ----- Regeneron's Eyelea achieved a 25% share of market in one year with a product that merely reduced the number of injections a patient need (in the eye - ouch!). It projects $1.5 billion in revenue this year and has a market cap of $27.5B (so Regeneron's market cap is 18X revenue). If you assume that Afrezza can achieve that same percent share, 25% in the first year (and I think it can very easily), then with a retail market at $20B and a wholesale market at say $10B (I'm assuming pharmacies double the wholesale price - i don't know for sure if that's the case, but it makes the $10B conservative), that would give Afrezza $2.5B in wholesale revenue (as compared to Eyelea's $1.5B). Multiply that by revenue by Regeneron's market cap multiple of 18 since Regeneron, like Mannkind, is pretty much a 1 product company right now (I'm assuming Mannkind could achieve the same multiple) then that would give Mannkind a market cap of $45B. Assuming 400 million shares for Mannkind, that would give Afrezza a potential share price of $112.50 ($45B divided by 400m). I've made a bunch of assumptions which I think are reasonable - and this is just a quick and dirty assessment - I realize there are lots of way to get to a share price. Want to be more conservative? Feel free. I'd be happy with 1/2 that price longer term.
For goodess sake doesn't anyone read the footnotes on the Form 4? Palumbo sold the stock according to a pre-arranged selling plan. Her sale has nothing to do with what she thinks about the company's prospects. And for that matter, she is the head of HR, not the ceo or head of research. Get a grip people.
As I read it, they have completed 3 tranches. Nice.
From the WSJ when the deal was first announced: "Deerfield funded $40,000,000 at closing and will fund three additional $40,000,000 tranches as MannKind successfully completes its Phase III clinical trial, repays its outstanding 3.75% convertible notes and receives FDA approval for Afrezza(R)."
Conversion of $1.5MM probably a show of good faith imo, with remainder (or a portion thereof) upon FDA approval.
Let's not ruin it.
Crooks. My condolences to those who were stopped out or sold on the downgrade. Don't usually post on this stock because it's been dead for so long and I've held through thick and thin. Hope this is news that will turn price action to the positive for a while.
Early life and education
"Born and raised in Portland, his father was English and mother Polish. His brother is violinist and Juilliard Quartet founding member Robert Mann. He moved to Los Angeles, California in 1946 and has remained there ever since. He received his B.S. and M.S. in physics from the University of California, Los Angeles, doing graduate work in nuclear and mathematical physics. Mann holds honorary doctorate degrees from the University of Southern California, The Johns Hopkins University, Western University, and the Technion – Israel Institute of Technology (Israel).
In 1956, Mann founded Spectrolab, the first of his aerospace companies. While at Spectrolab, an electrooptical systems company, he also founded Heliotek, a semiconductor company, that became a major supplier of solar cells for spacecraft. Among other accomplishments during his tenure, Mann's companies provided the electric power for over 100 spacecraft and constructed one of the lunar experiments. Although he sold both companies to Textron in 1960 (merged into one, Spectrolab is now a subsidiary of Boeing Satellite Systems) he continued to manage them until 1972. After he left those companies to found Pacesetter Systems, which focused on cardiac pacemakers, he sold that company in 1985 and managed it until 1992. It is now a part of St. Jude Medical. Mann then went on to establish MiniMed (insulin pumps and continuous glucose devices, now owned by Medtronic) and Advanced Bionics (neuroprosthetics), which was owned by Boston Scientific from 2004-2008. Boston Scientific and the Advanced Bionics management had agreed to split the company. Under this split, Boston Scientific would own the pain management and other neural stimulation portions and Advanced Bionics would focus on developing, manufacturing and distributing cochlear implants for the restoration of hearing to the deaf."
I trust no articles that I read on SA unless the author has a lot of followers and I can confirm that many of their calls have been right and that their backgrounds (assuming they're true) have some substance. . It is astounding to me that a site like this can exist with the blatant b s that is spewed by so many. Unfortunately, many readers think their authors are on the site because they have legitimate credentials.
Who cares. Those trades took place between July 1 and September 30, Baker Bros still have a position and we have more positive information. In addition, there was a net overall increase of 1.56% percent in fund ownership during that period.
I have learned to play the crookedness - though I am continually surprised by the magnitude of it.