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Sanford Bernstein Oil Value should be $60.00 to $50.00 a barrel

Based on Sanford C. Bernstein estimates of the marginal cost of oil production, the geopolitical premium in the Brent price is about $30 a barrel right now. Reminding the market that a strategic cushion exists—without necessarily deploying it—provides a check on that premium rising even further. Sweet Crude Oil Value should be $60.00 to $50.00 a barrel. That equates to averages gasoline price of $2.25 to $2.00 per gallon gasoline.
Sanford Bernstein geopolitical premium in the Brent price is about $30 a barrel right now That equates to averages gasoline price of $2.25 to $2.00 per gallon gasoline.

OPEC Says Supply Ample, Speculation Driving Price , | 14 March 2013 | 06:18 AM ET Oil supply will be more than sufficient to meet demand this year and beyond, OPEC's Secretary General said on Thursday, but added the price of fuel is being driven higher by speculation. "There has been no shortage of oil in the market. Producers have been able to meet consumer needs," Abdullah al-Badri told an energy conference. "We also see this as being the case for the rest of 2012 and the foreseeable future." Oil prices surged in March to $128 a barrel, the highest level since 2008, because of concern about possible supply shortages. Prices have since fallen back and brent crude was trading around $118 on Thursday. "Today the price continues to be driven by excessive speculation," Badri said. OPEC at a meeting in December set a target to produce 30 million barrels per day, settling an argument which broke out in 2011 after Iran and other members opposed a Saudi-led plan to raise OPEC's production ceiling. Output has remained above the target all year as Libyan supply recovered after being virtually shut down during the 2011 uprising against Muammar Gaddafi's rule. The extra oil is filling gaps caused by an unusually large number of supply outages globally, which have also helped support prices. Supply breaks were running at nearly 1.3 million bpd as of early April. The additional supply has also offset a decline in exports from Iran, which is facing stiffening western sanctions over its disputed nuclear energy program. Iranian oil exports were running at between 200,000 and 300,000 barrels per day below last year's level, Maria van der Hoeven, head of the International Energy Agency, told Thursday's conference. Iranian officials have said the country exported an average of 2.2 million barrels a day last year. July supply from the 12-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries ran at 31.75 million barrels per day (bpd), the high
est since September 2008, which was shor

Oil Speculation Imposes “the Most Insidious Tax” on Americans: Leo Hindery
Oil Speculation Imposes “the Most Insidious Tax” on Americans: Leo Hindery

Oil prices aren't right due to too much oil in the market. 14-March-12 07:23 am Many analysts say oil prices aren't right due to too much oil in the market. “The economic price for (West Texas Intermediate) oil is in the $50-$60 range,” said Mickey Cargile, managing partner at Cargile Investments, basing his estimate on where he sees supplies locally and in Cushing, Okla., the delivery hub for Nymex oil. “Our range valuation suggests a 20%-30% risk premium price
d for potential supply disruption from Iran,” he said. This equates to gasoline prices to average about $2.50 per gallon

Gas Prices Are “Outrageously High”: Sen. Bernie Sanders Demands Crackdown on Oil Speculation.
Gas Prices Are “Outrageously High”: Sen. Bernie Sanders Demands Crackdown on Oil Speculation.

Equates to gasoline prices to average about $2.25 per gallon 14-March 8:42 am This eq...
Equates to gasoline prices to average about $2.25 per gallon This equates to gasoline prices to average about $2.25 per gallon This equates to gasoline prices to average about $2.00 per gallon

Crude prices to fall global supply outweighing demand Saudi Arabia’s Ali al-Naimi 14-March 06:20 am Crude prices should fall because global supply is outweighing demand, according to Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, Ali al-Naimi  At $80.00 a barrel for London’s Brent crude, that equates to around $50.00 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate oil. The average price for gasoline in the U.S.A would drop to $2.80 per gallon. Naimi Says Brent Oil Should Drop to $80.00 as Supply Tops Demand By Ben Sharples - Crude prices should fall because global supply is outweighing demand, according to Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, Ali al-Naimi. “We want a lower price than where it is now,” al-Naimi said in Adelaide today. “We need to get the price to a level of around $80” a barrel for London’s Brent crude, he said. Saudi Arabia is the world’s biggest oil exporter. Brent, a benchmark price for more than half the world’s crude, has dropped 6 percent this month amid concern Europe’s debt crisis will worsen and curb fuel demand. OPEC is working to bring prices down, the group’s Secretary-General, Abdalla el- Badri, said . The producer group, scheduled to meet next month, is pumping 8.3 percent more crude than it considers necessary this quarter, figures from the Vienna-based group show. Brent crude for June settlement dropped 0.8 percent in the week to $112.26 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate oil for June delivery slid 2.4 percent to $96.13 a barrel. At $100 a barrel for London’s Brent crude, that equates to around $80.00 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate oil. The average price for gasoline in the U.S.A would drop to $2.80 per gallon. Oil supply outweighs demand by 1.3 million to 1.5 million barrels a day, al-Naimi said today. Saudi Arabia increased output last month to the highest in more than three decades, according to data it provided to OPEC. Less

8% Unemployment, or More, Could Lie Ahead
By Matt Clinch | CNBC – 1 hour 37 minutes ago
Severe fiscal tightening in the U.S. will lead to no growth or a contraction in the first two quarters of 2013 and will push unemployment over the 8 percent level, according to Lombard Street Research.
The knock-on effect will mean pain for the business sector, with corporate profits falling after a hit to consumer spending power, the firm said.
"Our view that unemployment could rise above 8 percent and that profits will be squeezed reflects a forecast of nil to negative 2013 (first quarter) growth, and further stagnation in (the second quarter)," a Lombard Street report released on Friday said.
The view contrasts sharply with that of other analysts who are considerably more bullish on the U.S. economy.
Keith McCullough, CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management told CNBC last week that he thinks employment could actually improve below 7 percent by the fourth quarter, adding that from a housing and employment perspective U.S growth is "pretty solid".
Lombard Street does not agree.
At the start of the year, the payroll tax that funds Social Security was raised two percentage points to its 2010 level of 6.2 percent. This was the largest component of tax increases approved by Congress in the resolution to the "fiscal cliff".
Retail sales rose 0.1 percent in January, data released by the Commerce Department showed on Wednesday. These two events together should set alarms bells ringing as tax increases suggest a slowdown in the pace of consumer spending, Lombard Street said.
"Retail sales data encouraged the idea that the payroll tax hike from 4.2 percent to 6.2 percent, worth 1 percent of personal disposable incomes, would pass off with little impact. But the effect of the payroll tax was only partly in January," it said, indicating that only a modest impact would have been expected for January.
Monetary easing by the Federal Reserve provides few offsets to this drop in demand outside of the housing sector, according to Lombard Street.
"The contribution of housing growth to GDP (gross domestic product) has been about 0.4 percent and promises to continue; that of government spending has averaged -0.4 percent for the past three years, and could easily exceed this in (the first and second quarter)," it said.
This -0.4 percent contribution that the research firm cite is set to be complicated further with extra spending cuts after the "fiscal cliff" resolution and the sequestration - a deadline for automatic government spending cuts - due to kick in on March 1.
"Our assumption is that the sequestration is canceled in favor of further cuts in a new provision. But this means the contribution from public spending to GDP growth could well be more negative than the past -0.4 percent," Lombard said.
"In February the full effect of the payroll tax hike will be reflected in disposable income, and the initial savings "cushion" is likely to give way, so real consumer spending could be down."
This real consumer spending could be down by more than 2 percent (annualized), it said, with little recovery in March. Thus for the first quarter a dip of 1.5 percent on an annual rate should be expected, contributing -0.1 to GDP growth.
Inventory building and capital expenditure could prove positive factors on that figure, hence its forecasts that GDP could be flat to slightly down for the first quarter and remain stagnant for the second quarter. Along with the last quarter being negative, three straight quarters of zero growth will lead to a rise in the unemployment rate, the firm said.
"Given underlying labor force growth of about 1 percent, this would add 0.7-0.8 percent to the unemployment rate, which was 7.9 percent in January. Even a less pessimistic view of (first quarter) and (second quarter) would send unemployment over 8 percent," it said.
The chief risk to the stock market is that a reduction of the budget deficit is likely to be offset largely by cuts in the business sector's surplus, Lombard said, meaning a hit to corporate profits.
However, this might be considered to be a contrarian view with some seeing U.S. growth stabilizing in 2013.
Fed chief Bernanke has previously said that interest rates will be kept low until the unemployment rate reaches 6.5 percent. At the current rate of 150,000 jobs created every month, and 110,000 new entrants to the labor force, that will be around January 2017.

California’s top earners are now facing a combined 51.9 percent federal and state income tax — the highest rate in the nation — a cause for grumbling and, maybe, an incentive to move. Two-Tax Rise Tests Wealthy in CaliforniaCalifornia’s top earners are now facing a combined 51.9 percent federal and state income tax Two-Tax Rise Tests Wealthy in California

Euro-Area Economy Shrinks Most Since Depths of Recession
By Marcus Bensasson - March 11, 2013
The euro-area recession deepened more than economists forecast with the worst performance in almost four years as the region’s three biggest economies suffered slumping output.
Gross domestic product fell 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That’s the most since the first quarter of 2009 in the aftermath of the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and exceeded the 0.4 percent median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg survey.
The data capped a morning of releases showing that the economies of Germany, France and Italy all shrank more than forecast in the fourth quarter. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said last week that confidence in the 17-nation bloc has stabilized and the ECB sees a gradual recovery beginning later this year, though the situation is “fragile.”
“The outlook for 2013 remains subdued,” said Peter Vanden Houte, an economist at ING Group NV in Brussels. “While a gradual improvement of the world economy is likely to support European exports, domestic demand is bound to remain very weak as fiscal tightening and rising unemployment will take their toll on household consumption.”
The euro extended its decline against the dollar after the data were released. It fell 0.9 percent to $1.3328 as of 10:34 a.m. London time. The single currency also weakened versus the pound and the yen. European stocks erased gains, U.S. equity- index futures fell, and German bunds advanced.
Japanese Surprise
The European data chimed with statistics in Japan, where the economy unexpectedly shrank last quarter as falling exports and a business investment slump outweighed improved consumption. GDP fell an annualized 0.4 percent, following a 3.8 percent fall in the previous quarter. That bolsters Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s case for more monetary stimulus to end deflat

European Parliament President Martin Schulz views the European Union as headed for a depression
March 11, 2013 Schulz says EU on path to depression: report

European Parliament President Martin Schulz views the European Union as headed for a depression, according to an interview with Saturday's edition of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
"[The E.U.] is on a path to a depression, apathy, a mood of not caring. That's dangerous, as that mood superimposes the great successes of the E.U., for which it recently won the Nobel Peace Prize," Mr. Schulz is quoted as saying.

World unemployment could top record levels this year and continue rising until 2017, the International Labour Organization (ILO) said on Tuesday in its annual employment report.
2009 currently stands as the worst recorded year for world unemployment, with 198 million people across the globe without work.
In its 2013 Global Employment Trends report, the ILO forecasts unemployment numbers will rise by 5.1 million in 2013 to reach 202 million, topping 2009's record.
The report also predicts unemployment will rise further in 2014 to reach 205 million
Global Unemployment to Surge Past 2009 Record World Unemployment to Hit Record High in 2013

Harvard Prof Niall Ferguson S&P 500 Index goto 418 ... Harvard Business Review : Harvard Professor Niall Ferguson S&P 500 Index go to 418 --- Scenario: Top Income-Tax Rate of 45%--- The Standard & Poor's 500 Index at 418 where it was in December 1982... Harvard Business Review Harvard Business Review Harvard Business Review

Goldman Sachs Dow eventually hitting 5000 in 2013 Charles Nenner Goldman Sachs Dow eventually hitting 5000 2013 Charles Nenner Goldman Sachs confirm a multiyear bear market with the Dow eventually hitting 5000
Goldman Sachs Charles Nenner Dow eventually hitting 5000 in 2013

Google wants you to make ‘smart choices’ when it comes to food

Goldman Sachs Charles Nenner Dow eventually hitting 5000 in 2013.Goldman Sachs Dow eventually hitting 5000 in 2013 Charles Nenner Goldman Sachs Dow eventually hitting 5000 2013 Charles Nenner Goldman Sachs confirm a multiyear bear market with the Dow eventually hitting 5000
Goldman Sachs Charles Nenner Dow eventually hitting 5000 in 2013

May 27, 2013 1:36 PM Flag0
users liked this posts users disliked this posts 0 Reply President Martin Schulz views the European Union as headed for a depression.European Parliament President Martin Schulz views the European Union as headed for a depression
March 11, 2013 Schulz says EU on path to depression: report

European Parliament President Martin Schulz views the European Union as headed for a depression, according to an interview with Saturday's edition of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
"[The E.U.] is on a path to a depression, apathy, a mood of not caring. That's dangerous, as that mood superimposes the great successes of the E.U., for which it recently won the Nobel Peace Prize," Mr. Schulz is quoted as saying.

Sanford Bernstein Oil Value should be $60.00 a barrel.Sanford Bernstein Oil Value should be $60.00 to $50.00 a barrel

Based on Sanford C. Bernstein estimates of the marginal cost of oil production, the geopolitical premium in the Brent price is about $30 a barrel right now. Reminding the market that a strategic cushion exists—without necessarily deploying it—provides a check on that premium rising even further. Sweet Crude Oil Value should be $60.00 to $50.00 a barrel. That equates to averages gasoline price of $2.25 to $2.00 per gallon gasoline.
Sanford Bernstein geopolitical premium in the Brent price is about $30 a barrel right now That equates to averages gasoline price of $2.25 to $2.00 per gallon gasoline

Harvard Prof Niall Ferguson S&P 500 Index go to 418 Harvard Business Review

Goldman Sachs Charles Nenner Dow eventually hitting 5000 in 2013..Goldman Sachs Charles Nenner Dow eventually hitting 5000 in 2013.Goldman Sachs Dow eventually hitting 5000 in 2013 Charles Nenner Goldman Sachs Dow eventually hitting 5000 2013 Charles Nenner Goldman Sachs confirm a multiyear bear market with the Dow eventually hitting 5000
Goldman Sachs Charles Nenner Dow eventually hitting 5000 in 2013