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fairvalue23 293 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 21, 2014 4:52 PM Member since: Jan 10, 2009
  • Harvard Prof Niall Ferguson S&P 500 Index goto 418 ... Harvard Business Review : Harvard Professor Niall Ferguson S&P 500 Index go to 418 --- Scenario: Top Income-Tax Rate of 45%--- The Standard & Poor's 500 Index at 418 where it was in December 1982... Harvard Business Review Harvard Business Review Harvard Business

  • 2014 crash will be worse than 1987's: Marc Faber
    Alex Rosenberg | @CNBCAlex
    Thursday, 10 Apr 2014 | 1:02 PM ET
    Marc Faber: Coming crash will be worse than 1987 Marc Faber, editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, says a 30 percent crash is coming in the next 12 months. With CNBC's Jackie DeAngelis and the Futures Now Traders.
    Marc Faber says the stock market is setting up for a decline more painful than the sudden crash of 1987.
    "I think it's very likely that we're seeing, in the next 12 months, an '87-type of crash," Faber said with a devious chuckle on Thursday's episode of "Futures Now." "And I suspect it will be even worse."
    Faber, the editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, has recently called for growth stocks to decline. And he says the pain in the Internet and biotech sectors is just getting started.
    "I think there are some groups of stocks that are highly vulnerable because they're in cuckoo land in terms of valuations," Faber said. "They have no earnings. They're valued at price-to-sales. And this is not a good metric in the long run."
    To be sure, there are prominent investors that disagree with Faber, among them legendary stockpicker Bill Miller, who said this week that conditions for a bad market simply don't exist.
    But it's not just momentum stocks that Faber is wary of. He says that investors are coming to a stark realization.
    "I believe that the market is slowly waking up to the fact that the Federal Reserve is a clueless organization," Faber said. "They have no idea what they're doing. And so the confidence level of investors is diminishing, in my view."
    As investors adjust to this fact, and valuations shrink, he predicts a massive decline in the market.
    "This year, for sure—maybe from a higher diving board—the S&P will drop 20 percent," Faber said, adding: "I think, rather, 30 percent. Who knows. But all I'm saying is that it's not a very good time, right now, to buy stocks."
    Previously, in August 2013, Faber predicted that a 1987-style crash was coming. The S&P 500 is about 9 percent higher since he made that call.
    —By CNBC's Alex Rosenberg

  • Harvard Prof Niall Ferguson S&P 500 Index goto 418 ... Harvard Business Review : Harvard Professor Niall Ferguson S&P 500 Index go to 418 --- Scenario: Top Income-Tax Rate of 45%--- The Standard & Poor's 500 Index at 418 where it was in December 1982... Harvard Business Review Harvard Business Review Harvard Business

  • Equates to gasoline prices to average about $2.25 per gallon......Equates to gasoline prices to average about $2.25 per gallon..........Equates to gasoline prices to average about $2.25 per gallon.........Equates to gasoline prices to average about $2.25 per gallon........Equates to gasoline prices to average about $2.25 per gallon.......Equates to gasoline prices to average about $2.25 per gallon 03-Oct 8:42 am This eq...
    Equates to gasoline prices to average about $2.25 per gallon This equates to gasoline prices to average about $2.25 per gallon This equates to gasoline prices to average about $2.00 per gallon

  • Renowned Economist Harry Dent Dow Jones to Drop to 3,300...........Renowned Economist Harry Dent Dow Jones to Drop to 3,300........Renowned Economist Harry Dent Dow Jones to Drop to 3,300...Renowned Economist Harry Dent Dow Jones to Drop to 3,300..Renowned Economist Harry Dent Dow Jones to Drop to 3,300.Renowned Economist Harry Dent Dow Jones to Drop to 3,300 The Man Who Predicted Japan’s Lost Decade… The Recession of 1990-92… The Biggest Bull Market Run in U.S. History… and Most Recently, the 2008 Credit Crisis and Stock Market Crash… Now Predicts:
    Yes, today the Dow Jones Average may be near historic highs…
    but it won’t be for long! The Dow will drop.
    My name is Harry Dent. For the past 30 years, I’ve used the Science of Demographics to predict major economic and market shifts with uncanny accuracy… decades ahead of time.
    Many investors are making the mistake of thinking the downturn is over, and Dow stocks will continue to roar upward.
    But that’s not what my research indicates. Not even close.
    I see the Dow Jones Average winding down, week after week… falling through the 12,000 mark… below 10,000, then 9,000, 8,000… to 6,440 – where it’s likely to rally briefly… before ultimately dropping as low as 3,300.
    And there’s nothing you or I, or any politician or government, or any team of monetary experts can do to stop the Dow Jones Index from dropping.
    But here’s the good news, extraordinary wealth can be made by knowing the future.
    In Survive & Prosper, my free e-letter, I’ll show you my economic analysis and demographic research that proves the DOW is about to make a historic drop.
    But that’s just the beginning, you’ll also learn:
    • How to predict the economic future! Imagine if you knew when to buy stocks like Microsoft during the tech bubble for $.85 a share after factoring in splits – and watched it rocket to over $58, a better than 67-to-1 windfall. I will show how predicting and profiting from the future is a SCIENCE and is easier than you might have im

  • Critical warning: Dow 5,000, crash of 65% Former Goldman Sachs trader Terry Burnham is right to warn that the sucker's bull market of 1928 is repeating..........Critical warning: Dow 5,000, crash of 65% Former Goldman Sachs trader Terry Burnham is right to warn that the sucker's bull market of 1928 is repeating..Critical warning: Dow 5,000, crash of 65% Former Goldman Sachs trader Terry Burnham is right to warn that the sucker's bull market of 1928 is repeating.Critical warning: Dow 5,000, crash of 65% Former Goldman Sachs trader Terry Burnham is right to warn that the sucker's bull market of 1928 is repeating, writes Paul Farrell.Critical warning: Dow 5,000, crash of 65% Former Goldman Sachs trader Terry Burnham is right to warn that the sucker's bull market of 1928 is repeating, writes Paul Farrell

  • Nomura bear sees global stocks tumbling 50% in 2014.........Nomura bear sees global stocks tumbling 50% in 2014...Nomura bear sees global stocks tumbling 50% in 2014.Nomura bear sees global stocks tumbling 50% in 2014
    Feb.21, 2014 11:35 AM
    “The bubble is building.”
    With a headline like that, it’s pretty clear where Nomura strategist Bob Janjuah sits on the side of those big market gains that are making many investors squirm in both the cheap and expensive seats lately.
    The last time uber-bear Janjuah popped his head above the parapet was summer, when he predicted 50% bear market would hit in late 2013 or early 2014. While that has not happened, no matter to Janjuah, who merely shifted that apoca-stock-lyptical prediction out a few paces in his latest note to investors that published on Tuesday:
    “…from a TIME perspective I still see end Q4 2013, through to end Q1 2014, as the window in which we see a significant risk-on top before giving way, over the last three quarters of 2014 and through 2015, to what could be a 40% to 50% sell-off in global stock markets.”
    Janjuah says his 1,800 target for the S&P 500 SPX +0.43% has pretty much been nailed. (The index topped 1,775 last week.) But before any big reversal hits, investors may see higher highs, such as 1,850 for the S&P 500, and they should also hold out for more signs of complacency, he says.
    Specifically, he sees the so-called ‘fear trade’ index, the VIX VIX -4.52% , trading down at 10 between now and the end of the first quarter of next year before any big selling takes place.
    And while waiting on those higher S&P highs, Janjuah says investors could see an interim sell-off first. Risk-off trading could take the index from 1,775 to 1,650/1,700 or even down to 1,600/1,650. If that dip comes he’s ready to buy up to that 1,800/1,850 S&P high target.
    “The key here is that, I think in the very short term, markets have priced out pretty much all the risk in markets, and have priced in pretty much all the ‘good’ news. As such I feel sentiment and positioning are currently very

  • Frightening 1929 market chart is gaining traction parallels between recent market behavior and just before 1929 crash.....Frightening 1929 market chart is gaining traction Mark Hulbert on parallels between recent market behavior and just before 1929 crash.
    Feb. 27, 2014, 6:30 a.m. EST
    Scary 1929 market chart gains traction
    Opinio Hulbert n: If market follows the same script, trouble lies directly ahead
    CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — There are eerie parallels between the stock market’s recent behavior and how it behaved right before the 1929 crash.
    That at least is the conclusion reached by a frightening chart that has been making the rounds on Wall Street. The chart superimposes the market’s recent performance on top of a plot of its gyrations in 1928 and 1929.
    The picture isn’t pretty. And it’s not as easy as you might think to wriggle out from underneath the bearish significance of this chart.
    I should know, because I quoted a number of this chart’s skeptics in a column I wrote in early December. Yet the market over the last two months has continued to more or less closely follow the 1928-29 pattern outlined in that two-months-ago chart. If this correlation continues, the market faces a particularly rough period later this month and in early March. (See chart, courtesy of Tom McClellan of the McClellan Market Report; he in turn gives credit to Tom DeMark, a noted technical analyst who is the founder and CEO of DeMark Analytics.)
    One of the biggest objections I heard two months ago was that the chart is a shameless exercise in after-the-fact retrofitting of the recent data to some past price pattern. But that objection has lost much of its force. The chart was first publicized in late November of last year, and the correlation since then certainly appears to be just as close as it was before.
    To be sure, as McClellan acknowledged: “Every pattern analog I have ever studied breaks correlation eventually, and often at the point when I am most counting on it to continue working. So there is no guarantee that the market has to continue following through with every step of the 1929 Less

  • Frightening 1929 market chart is gaining traction Mark Hulbert on parallels between recent market behavior and just before 1929 crash.
    Feb. 27, 2014, 6:30 a.m. EST
    Scary 1929 market chart gains traction
    Opinio Hulbert n: If market follows the same script, trouble lies directly ahead
    CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — There are eerie parallels between the stock market’s recent behavior and how it behaved right before the 1929 crash.
    That at least is the conclusion reached by a frightening chart that has been making the rounds on Wall Street. The chart superimposes the market’s recent performance on top of a plot of its gyrations in 1928 and 1929.
    The picture isn’t pretty. And it’s not as easy as you might think to wriggle out from underneath the bearish significance of this chart.
    I should know, because I quoted a number of this chart’s skeptics in a column I wrote in early December. Yet the market over the last two months has continued to more or less closely follow the 1928-29 pattern outlined in that two-months-ago chart. If this correlation continues, the market faces a particularly rough period later this month and in early March. (See chart, courtesy of Tom McClellan of the McClellan Market Report; he in turn gives credit to Tom DeMark, a noted technical analyst who is the founder and CEO of DeMark Analytics.)
    One of the biggest objections I heard two months ago was that the chart is a shameless exercise in after-the-fact retrofitting of the recent data to some past price pattern. But that objection has lost much of its force. The chart was first publicized in late November of last year, and the correlation since then certainly appears to be just as close as it was before.
    To be sure, as McClellan acknowledged: “Every pattern analog I have ever studied breaks correlation eventually, and often at the point when I am most counting on it to continue working. So there is no guarantee that the market has to continue following through with every step of the 1929 Less

  • Albert Edwards, Societe Generale's uber-bearish strategist, who now predicts a global recession with equity valuations dropping to their lowest levels in a generation. Edwards believes this is just the "pungent smell of coffee" that has now overwhelmed the "hallucinatory vapors" contained in the Fed's quantitative easing (QE) bond-buying program that it started shortly after the financial crash of 2008.
    "Commodities snapped out of their trance some two years ago and could not find their way back into that same dream-like state. Now it is equities turn," he said.
    "And even if the Fed resumes massive QE at some point as the world melts down, and markets desperately attempt their return to the dream trance, they will instead find themselves locked into a Freddie Kruger-like nightmare." Less

  • Nomura bear sees global stocks tumbling 50% in 2014...Nomura bear sees global stocks tumbling 50% in 2014.Nomura bear sees global stocks tumbling 50% in 2014
    Feb.21, 2014 11:35 AM
    “The bubble is building.”
    With a headline like that, it’s pretty clear where Nomura strategist Bob Janjuah sits on the side of those big market gains that are making many investors squirm in both the cheap and expensive seats lately.
    The last time uber-bear Janjuah popped his head above the parapet was summer, when he predicted 50% bear market would hit in late 2013 or early 2014. While that has not happened, no matter to Janjuah, who merely shifted that apoca-stock-lyptical prediction out a few paces in his latest note to investors that published on Tuesday:
    “…from a TIME perspective I still see end Q4 2013, through to end Q1 2014, as the window in which we see a significant risk-on top before giving way, over the last three quarters of 2014 and through 2015, to what could be a 40% to 50% sell-off in global stock markets.”
    Janjuah says his 1,800 target for the S&P 500 SPX +0.43% has pretty much been nailed. (The index topped 1,775 last week.) But before any big reversal hits, investors may see higher highs, such as 1,850 for the S&P 500, and they should also hold out for more signs of complacency, he says.
    Specifically, he sees the so-called ‘fear trade’ index, the VIX VIX -4.52% , trading down at 10 between now and the end of the first quarter of next year before any big selling takes place.
    And while waiting on those higher S&P highs, Janjuah says investors could see an interim sell-off first. Risk-off trading could take the index from 1,775 to 1,650/1,700 or even down to 1,600/1,650. If that dip comes he’s ready to buy up to that 1,800/1,850 S&P high target.
    “The key here is that, I think in the very short term, markets have priced out pretty much all the risk in markets, and have priced in pretty much all the ‘good’ news. As such I feel sentiment and positioning are currently very Les

  • Critical warning: Dow 5,000, crash of 65% Former Goldman Sachs trader Terry Burnham is right to warn that the sucker's bull market of 1928 is repeating..Critical warning: Dow 5,000, crash of 65% Former Goldman Sachs trader Terry Burnham is right to warn that the sucker's bull market of 1928 is repeating.Critical warning: Dow 5,000, crash of 65% Former Goldman Sachs trader Terry Burnham is right to warn that the sucker's bull market of 1928 is repeating, writes Paul Farrell.Critical warning: Dow 5,000, crash of 65% Former Goldman Sachs trader Terry Burnham is right to warn that the sucker's bull market of 1928 is repeating, writes Paul Farrell

  • Renowned Economist Harry Dent Dow Jones to Drop to 3,300........Renowned Economist Harry Dent Dow Jones to Drop to 3,300...Renowned Economist Harry Dent Dow Jones to Drop to 3,300..Renowned Economist Harry Dent Dow Jones to Drop to 3,300.Renowned Economist Harry Dent Dow Jones to Drop to 3,300 The Man Who Predicted Japan’s Lost Decade… The Recession of 1990-92… The Biggest Bull Market Run in U.S. History… and Most Recently, the 2008 Credit Crisis and Stock Market Crash… Now Predicts:
    Yes, today the Dow Jones Average may be near historic highs…
    but it won’t be for long! The Dow will drop.
    My name is Harry Dent. For the past 30 years, I’ve used the Science of Demographics to predict major economic and market shifts with uncanny accuracy… decades ahead of time.
    Many investors are making the mistake of thinking the downturn is over, and Dow stocks will continue to roar upward.
    But that’s not what my research indicates. Not even close.
    I see the Dow Jones Average winding down, week after week… falling through the 12,000 mark… below 10,000, then 9,000, 8,000… to 6,440 – where it’s likely to rally briefly… before ultimately dropping as low as 3,300.
    And there’s nothing you or I, or any politician or government, or any team of monetary experts can do to stop the Dow Jones Index from dropping.
    But here’s the good news, extraordinary wealth can be made by knowing the future.
    In Survive & Prosper, my free e-letter, I’ll show you my economic analysis and demographic research that proves the DOW is about to make a historic drop.
    But that’s just the beginning, you’ll also learn:
    • How to predict the economic future! Imagine if you knew when to buy stocks like Microsoft during the tech bubble for $.85 a share after factoring in splits – and watched it rocket to over $58, a better than 67-to-1 windfall. I will show how predicting and profiting from the future is a SCIENCE and is easier than you might have imagined.
    • How to retire in luxury, with enough money to live like a millionaire and leave a “legacy of wealth” to your children and heirs… by using the same strategies the Kennedy, Melons, and Carnegie families used to build lasting wealth.
    • Why deflation (not inflation) is inevitable

  • Equates to gasoline prices to average about $2.25 per gallon..........Equates to gasoline prices to average about $2.25 per gallon.........Equates to gasoline prices to average about $2.25 per gallon........Equates to gasoline prices to average about $2.25 per gallon.......Equates to gasoline prices to average about $2.25 per gallon 03-Oct 8:42 am This eq...
    Equates to gasoline prices to average about $2.25 per gallon This equates to gasoline prices to average about $2.25 per gallon This equates to gasoline prices to average about $2.00 per gallon

  • Sanford Bernstein Oil Value should be $60.00 a barrel......Sanford Bernstein Oil Value should be $60.00 a barrel.....Sanford Bernstein Oil Value should be $60.00 a barrel...Sanford Bernstein Oil Value should be $60.00 a barrel...Sanford Bernstein Oil Value should be $60.00 a barrel l.Sanford Bernstein Oil Value should be $60.00 to $50.00 a barrel

    Based on Sanford C. Bernstein estimates of the marginal cost of oil production, the geopolitical premium in the Brent price is about $30 a barrel right now. Reminding the market that a strategic cushion exists—without necessarily deploying it—provides a check on that premium rising even further. Sweet Crude Oil Value should be $60.00 to $50.00 a barrel. That equates to averages gasoline price of $2.25 to $2.00 per gallon gasoline.
    Sanford Bernstein geopolitical premium in the Brent price is about $30 a barrel right now That equates to averages gasoline price of $2.25 to $2.00 per gallon gasoline

  • Dow set to crash 65%, drop to 5,000, but nobody listens, till too late Former Goldman Sachs trader Terry Burnham...Dow set to crash 65%, drop to 5,000, but nobody listens, till too late Former Goldman Sachs trader Terry Burnham..Dow set to crash 65%, drop to 5,000, but nobody listens, till too late Former Goldman Sachs trader Terry Burnham.Dow set to crash 65%, drop to 5,000, but nobody listens, till too late Former Goldman Sachs trader Terry Burnham-----Burnham’s three reasons, so obvious, yet falling on deaf ears:
    • Near-zero savings, excessive spending, maximum debt: Sounds simple, but Americans have been saving at a rate near zero the past two decades. “As a nation, we have essentially no savings.” No protection in crises.
    • Both fiscal and monetary policies making problems worse: The Fed is not going to save the economy. Forget it. Bernanke’s cheap money fueled the banking sector’s “speculative markets, not real economic growth.” Worse, fiscally we “can’t deficit spend our way to prosperity ... also ridiculous.”
    • Stocks are “terrible investments” today, get out: Terrible in part because “the vast majority of individuals are absolutely horrible at market timing.” Our lizard brains limit our ability to invest rationally. We’re short-term thinkers, “buy high and sell low.” So today, again at the peak of the market, we’ll buy and “get slaughtered.”

  • Harvard Prof Niall Ferguson Standard & Poor's 500 Index to go to 418 where it was in December 1982.Harvard Prof Niall Ferguson S&P 500 Index go to 418 Harvard Business Review
    Harvard Prof Niall Ferguson S&P 500 Index goto 418 ... Harvard Business Review : Harvard Professor Niall Ferguson S&P 500 Index go to 418 --- Scenario: Top Income-Tax Rate of 45%--- The Standard & Poor's 500 Index at 418 where it was in December 1982... Harvard Business Review Harvard Business Review Harvard Business Review

  • The Great Crash of 2014 A stock market crash bigger than what happened in; 2008 and early 2009 is headed our way.; In fact; we are predicting this crash will be even more; devastating than the 1929 crash--
    A stock market crash bigger than what happened in; 2008 and early 2009 is headed our way.; In fact; we are predicting this crash will be even more; devastating than the 1929 crash...; ...the ramifications of which will hit the economy and; Americans deeper than anything we've ever seen.; Our 27-year-old research firm feels so strongly about; this; we've just produced a video to warn investors called; "The Great Crash of 2014."; In case you are not familiar with our research work; on the stock market:; In late 2001; in the aftermath of 9/11; we told our; clients to buy small-cap stocks. They rose about 100% after; we made that call.; We were one of the first major advisors to turn bullish; on gold. Throughout 2002; we urged our readers to buy gold; stocks; many of which doubled and even tripled in price.; In November of 2007; we started begging our customers; to get out of the stock market. Shortly afterwards; it was widely; recognized that October 2007 was the top for stocks.; We correctly predicted the crash in the stock market of; 2008 and early 2009.; And in March of 2009; we started telling our readers to; jump into small caps. The Russell 2000 gained about 175%; from when we made that call in 2009 to today.; Many investors will find our next prediction hard to; believe until they see all the proof we have to back it up.; Even if you don't own stocks; what's about to happen will; affect you!; I urge you to be among the first to get our next major; prediction.; See it here now in this just-released alarming video.; Yours truly; Michael Lombardi; MBA; Founder

  • S&P could plunge 30%: to 40% Fleckenstein ‘Huge amount of downside’ in S&P
    Bill Fleckenstein is not ready to call the top for the market just yet. But pointing to the S&P 500's valuation, he says that once stocks do start to fall, the decline could prove extremely painful.
    "The [price-to-earnings ratio] is 16, 17 times earnings," Fleckenstein said on Tuesday's episode of "Futures Now." "Why would you pay 16 times for an S&P company? I don't care about where rates are, because rates are artificially suppressed. Why isn't that worth 11 or 12 times? Just by that analysis, you'd be down by a quarter or 30 percent or more."

  • Dow will hit 17,000 and then fall as low as 6,000 in 2014. CNBC's Ron Insana, shares his investment strategies amid the "secular bull market."
    The stock market is in a bubble that is setting up for a major crash, with the Dow Jones industrial average likely to hit the 17,000 level within the next few weeks before plummeting to around 6,000 in 2014, author and market observer Harry S. Dent Jr. told CNBC on Monday.
    "I think we see another correction, crash, that is larger than the last one," said Dent, author of The Demographic Cliff, during an interview on "Closing Bell." "I think this will be the most dangerous period in people's lives in investing."
    The fundamental problem plaguing global economies is a shift in demographics, Dent said. An aging work force will soon retire, outnumbering younger workers, thereby draining government entitlements, he said. Despite government stimulus, younger workers tend to spend less, too, Dent continued.
    "Generations spend and then they don't," Dent said. "Governments are fighting that with massive stimulus, and it shows why the economy is so weak with so much stimulus. Demographics is the only way you can explain that."

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