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Francois Nader, NPS Pharmaceuticals
Investors like companies developing drugs for rare, orphan diseases. Investors love companies which can get these orphan drugs approved and launched successfully. Nader has done both exceedingly well, which is why he's a finalist for this year's Best Biotech CEO award.
NPS secured FDA approval of Gattex for adult short bowel syndrome in December of last year and launched the drug in early 2013. The drug was priced aggressively, which worried some people (myself included... ahem) about possible hiccups with reimbursement, but Nader and his NPS employees proved doubters wrong. On all measures -- patient demand, reimbursement, compliance and duration of treatment -- Gattex has exceeded expectations.
And then there's Nader's encore. NPS will be seeking FDA approval soon for its second orphan drug candidate -- Natpara for the treatment of hypoparathyroidism. If approved, Natpara will launch in the back half of 2014 with a significant commercial potential that isn't really factored into the value of the stock yet.
Thank you for posting the news !!!
My expectation for the BLA was mid December. So I'm a bit suprised ...
Gattex launch, Natpara, international expansion.
As per your math we should be a $40B - $50B MK company ($390 - $500+ per share).
I gave you a thumps up for your optmistic outlook. But your share price is way way too low
which such revenue expectations :)
(take a look at Biogen)
After some major changes health insurances in germany working cash flow positive and have a lot of spare cash. The gov. run program actually work !!! To be fair, Germany is the economic powerhouse of Europe.
The U.S. House of Representatives voted tonight to fund the FDA until the federal shutdown ends or until Dec. 15, whichever comes first.
The lower chamber approved on a 235-162 vote a joint resolution by Rep. Robert Aderholt (R-Ala.) that restores funding to the level established by sequestration, which is about $200 million less than originally authorized.
The measure is unlikely to pass muster in the Senate, where majority leader Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has vowed to shoot down any proposed stop-gap funding legislation.
The vote capped the 7th day of the federal shutdown, begun Oct. 1 when the Senate nixed a continuing resolution after the House added a pair of provisions that would have repealed the medical device tax and delayed the implementation of Obamacare's insurance exchanges by a year.
Aderholt, who is chairman of the House Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee, said FDA funding bill would also allow the watchdog agency to collect the user fees that industry pays to have its medical device and drugs reviewed.
"It is now time for this body to continue funding 1 more critical component of our public health infrastructure," Aderholt said. "We need the entire agency back at work."
The U.S. House of Representatives votes to fund the FDA until the federal shutdown ends, or until Dec. 15, whichever comes first.
Among secondary endpoints, by Week 24, 43 percent (36/84) of patients treated with Natpara were able to achieve independence from active vitamin D therapy and required only 500 mg/day or less of oral calcium, as compared to five percent (2/37) of patients treated with placebo (p
Both, orphan and cancer drugs get higher valuations on market.
PCYC's revenue potential = $3,2B
(actually printing no revenues / price target for MK $12,4B / PT going up much higher, if revenue stream start any time)
NPSP revenue potential = $5,3B
(printing revenues / actually MK = $3,5B only / Pipeline indicated much higher revenues / Dr. Nader's stated that he intend to create the biggest Orphan drug company worlwide)
Orphan drugs get higher valuation, 4x - 5x times revenue. I'll take the lower end : 4x 5,3B = MK $21,2B with 2 drugs only (Pipeline, Royalty payments and Gattex-Japan not included)
On PCYC's example, you can see the high valuation for a cancer drug in earlier stage with expected $3,2B peak revenues only. In comparison, NPS Pharma has just a MK of $3,5B.
That's the reason why the stock is moving up almost every day.
And this is one reason why Jim Cramer stated on Sep. 2013 in his show "Mad Money" :
"NPSP is one of the biggest success stories we ever have ...
Actually "PCYC" doesn't have any approved drugs on market. Analysts expects that their one - potential drug -, ibrutinib, to become one of the most common primary treatments for blood cancer and generate billions of dollars in annual sales. Expected peak sales $6,4B, which they have to share with Roche (half each).
Subsequently - and just based on this expectation - PCYC got tons of upgrades. Last week Deutsche Bank and JP Morgan Chase set their price target to $170 ( MK $12.4B ).
NPSP in comparison is a orphan drug company and has one approved drug (Gattex) on market, the second one (Natpara) will follow in 2014. Their pipeline indicates a much greater potential in the orphan drug space.
Gattex (US) / Revestive (EU) :
To be conservative : Revenues (US patients 3000 / EU 6000) = $2,6B revenue
Japan (large market potential) and parts of Asia not included. Management indicates that this comes later on into play. Maybe 2015/2016.
Last week (and for the first time) Dr. Nader changed in the following sentence the word "could" in "will" :
"The commercial market potential for Natpara sales will exceed the ones of Gattex."
He intends to introduce a "Natpara day". Trial data, pricing and market potential should then be announced.
Revenue potential for Natpara - if exceed the ones of Gattex -
(US patients 50000-60000 ! Worldwide patients not announced yet) = $2,7B+ revenue (if larger than Gattex).
Jim Cramer is pumping NPSP so much on television. He's right with this story, like he was several times with other great stories (e.g. Netflix ...).
NPSP is going up above $40 very very fast now. My guess straight ahead to $42 ..then profit taking to $39 .. and finally waiting for the 3Q CC ....
Happy times ahead
Sentiment: Strong Buy
If you invest in NPSP it could happen, that you eventually have to pay - more - capital gain taxes, than you originally invested. Are you well prepared if this happen ?
I can repeat it again and again.
Same pattern like "REGN".
In a 2 years time frame "REGN Analyst estimates" went up parabolic from $60 to above $329.
PCYC's analyst estimates in 18 month from $22 to $143.
NPSP will be no different.
Good times ahead :-)
NPSP is worth $130-$140 with Gattex worldwide sales alone ...
...not including Natpara, with a possible higher commercial success (as Dr. Nader stated on TV) and other upcoming drugs of the pipeline.
Kiran Meekings (Principal Consultant -Business- Life Sciences, Thomson Reuters) stated :
"It’s worth bearing in mind orphan drug companies trade at a premium – they have higher valuation multiples than traditional primary care companies ”
Source : financialexpress
Article: The rise of the orphans
Date : 01 August 2013
Orphan drugs offer better return on investments for both small and large pharma alike in a market that has decreased R&D productivity, high regulatory barriers and evolving payer requirements. In a report released last year, Thomson Reuters estimated the rare disease market to be at $50 billion globally by 2011 which today occupy a meagre share of six per cent of the total pharma market. Data from Evaluate Pharma’s recent report indicates that this number is poised to grow at a whopping $127 billion by 2018, double that of the overall prescription drug market.