This is not even an interesting concept.
When a business writes more checks than the money it brings in it is failing. Someone must go in and do the nasty and put it back on track. It is not a religion. It is not a artist's group. It is not a support group of friends. It is not an engineering discovey group. It is not a non-profit foundation to spend money entertaining clients and impressing them with simple waste. It is a business. You do it to bring in more money than you spend. Each group is learning their lessons. The first is that if your plan is not making money quarter after quarter your management will be removed, you will be restructured, a true leader will be found that will do what is needed to turn a profit. That not only requires making a great product but the conviction to stop spending more money than you bring in.
For the first time in many years Avid is facing this key issue. Turning a profit every quarter is the first foundation of business. It is not a gamble. It is not a bet. It is not a strange idea. It is not an option. You just do it. You stop writing checks. You stop spending more than you make. Right now. The first goal is profit every quarter. If not you are 100% failing.
If you teach a staff to loose money now for a future gain they will develop skills to loose money.
If you teach them to make money now while developing more then their profits, their product line, and their skills will continue to grow.
It's so simple.
And with the Softimage time almost expired for
the value of those "acquisition-related intangible
assets" what has it brought the Avid stock holders of the
world? Nothing but a huge drop in our stock value.
17,000 upgrades? Where? Now, Avid's current thinking is
that Softimage is now better run by a complete
outsider from Orange County than anyone that was involved
internally. Why did they buy it? There should be a SEC
investigation as everything about this purchase just stinks.
And why wasn't this part of the Microsoft
Thank god there is new management on this ship. And
what kind of pillow did our former CEO land on? The
old ones should be living off shore hiding their
assets in fear of jail time.
That's the trick in entertainment. Ride the tide.
This is one of those like Bruce Willis, Star Trek,
Bond, etc. and if you hang on it's going to double your
money each time. It's the base of user fans out there.
They love a good trailer or a good trade show
What other stock can you count on dropping and
doubling at least once a year.
Ride the tide.
This is probably because David Krall does not
have extensive experience as a CEO of a larger company
but does have the training, trust, engineering, and
desire to pull this off. Kind of like a mini Steve Jobs.
If this price continues to go up, I think he will be
taken care of.
Look at it this way:
wants the job.
-Give the guy time to prove himself
and build trust across the masses.
time you don't have to give him big bucks and big
-The board doesn't live through another nightmare
house cleaning if he works.
-Krall doesn't have a
lot to bargin with against a board right now. Save
the money until he does.
I think the board may be
doing the right thing here.
What would a company like Avid have to base it's
worth on in a sale?
-The film market will grow very
-The video market will continue to grow but profits
per sale will continue to drop.
-The audio market
will always have low profit margins and moderate
- However, many feel the future of
Avid is in streaming. Video and sound. And many say
that in Unity, they have created the ultimate
streaming engine on the market today. Many feel it will be
the majority of their profits within two years
surpasing all other divisions combined. If that is the
case, and the Avid and Digidesign editing systems are
set to interact with it best, then I would figure
it's delivery oriented companies that are buying it up
now that they have seen what it will do.
"hardly seems enough to move the
Seems you are not one of the 100,000 audio chaps that
benefited from Mike Rockwell then. If you saw the changes
to Digidesign's Pro Tools in the last two years and
learn that he has his hands on Avid now, then anyone
who has experience with him or his products are going
to invest deep. He's smart, he's fun, he delivers on
time, he cuts to the chase, coworkers like him and will
go the extra mile to deliver with him. Lastly, he
talks to people daily who know what they are doing in
the business AND listens.
Now how could an
attitude like that help a company like Avid, hummm???????
People in the industry understand the time it
takes to develop a
-Avid/Digidesign/Softimage have experience running a support based product
i.e. a product that the majority of the value is not
in the physical hardware you buy. It's a totally
different animal. Anyone can see each year by how many
workstation startups fail. On the other hand, Avid owns the
three groups that get it and have built continued
market penitration. That is done by balancing (1) R&D,
(2) marketing and sales, (3) support. Avid has proven
it can balance on a worldwide scale:
audio(who's operations should be the flagship for any
workstation company of how to profit in a tougher, more
-Avid picture editing (who has
acheived professional market dominance despite their
blatant waste by mid and upper level management.)
-Softimage graphics (who continues to develop in the
toughest market of the three.)
-The forth group they
just anounced they are starting to develop hard for.
They called it "internet" but in reality it's
"compression". Anyone who has seen the Meridian compression
knows this could be a big field for them, especially
with broadband as the number one technology to build a
financial future on.
Kids, that combined _is_ the
media market in the 21st century. Umm..... who needs
The one thing this company needs is a lesson in the
word "no". No to stupid spending, No to health clubs,
No time for gloating. It's now time to fight. Isn't
this why engineers become engineers to begin with?
David Krall has to light a fire in some shorts and
start a firestorm of revenge of what the previous
managment has done to all of them. Can he do it? That's
what he will be judged on in two years. Nobody works
harder or smarter than him. One forth of the company
beleaves in him already. I just hope he sorts through the
cubicals and finds a tight staff that will rejuice
themselves, roll up their sleaves and jump in. The other crap
will naturally fall to the side and is brushed
Q4 will not change.
Q1 will not change.
will jump to 30 by April 22nd.
Seems like if that were true, antitrust cases
would fly. To much money in this business to lock up
that much future in one company. Sony already should
be broken up more than Microsoft. Isn't it funny
how, in a free market country, you can only buy a Sony
portable CD around the country at multiple stores in
different cities at the EXACT same price? Humm? The pro
gear is only sold at one price with a "Sony deal".
They are the group that the Borg was based on.
Competition and competitive thought are often a good thing.
I'm not sure I'm grasping the "Avid can't
deliver" line. It's not that Avid is "jumping on the
internet bandwagon". It's broadband. Everything media
oriented can soon fit in it so everyone media is looking
toward internet as a distribution network for their
Media is going internet.
Avid is in
So Avid is going internet.
is preaty basic.)
And what's the "done for
now" stuff. Avid rules professional editing in audio
and video including up to 99% of all
The problem is it's now a Fed Ex world. If you don't
get something new to open everyday you feel they are
doing nothing. On the other hand they are driving in
24P and a HD future on the high end and well as
preparing to sell the lower end the prefered editing
package of pros to the emerging broadband broadcast
market. It's a great position.
Their problem is a
lack of financial supervision of managers, sales, and
Sorry to drag it on but even Discreet has no
answer for loading their own Edit (D-Vision) list
properly on a Smoke without editing first or loading one
track at a time.
On an Avid it not only reads lists
but replicates all titles and effects that were
created on any other Avid. That's a full step ahead of
the others. When their color correction catches up
I'd say Avid has another killer advantage.
The discussion is of Avid stock. I assume it includes
things that could effect it. This could be a result of
performance of their products vs the competition, even if it
is more expensive competition. I think it is valid
in this forum.
"only about 50 are truly versatile as an online
Yes, but the same ratio was ofline editors 15
years ago. The difference is it will bring more and
more trained editors to develope skills to also
finish. That will expand the market from a experience
I can move an Avid editor and teach
them online quicker than I can take a tape online
editor and teach them Smoke or Fire. That, kids, means a
future for Symphony, and for Avid. And as storage
continues to drop.....
And I'm aware of Smoke pricing.
I'm getting another one this week. Great color, sucky
auto-assembly from EDLs. (If you think it reads EDLs well
you've never run an Avid. If I didn't need this I would
consider Smoke unshipable from this fault alone.)
A Smoke for as cheep as a Symphony? I wish. Try
double when you include the proprietary stone storage.
Smoke on the other hand has great color correction and
great 4.2.2 color. However it also suprises us the one
in ten times when it can read an EDL and not miss an
edit. (I always thought that was a basic
requirement....) Also finding an operator is tough.
just a D Vision with a new face. Funny, it still can't
kick out a decent EDL. Even their own on line Smoke
can't read it's EDL properly without editing it by
Symphony, on the other hand has less powerful color
correction but can totally rebuild a Avid offline session
flawlessly day after day. That's including titles, pan and
scan, etc. It's as easy to use as a offline Avid and
you have 10,000 editors that know an Avid in LA. Talk
to someone who uses one day in and out if you want a
As for the stock price, this is
not a stock but a religion. It's all feel on the
street and has nothing to do with reality. My prediction
is David Krall will kick ass by spring. April NAB at
I was once on a big negative streak on Avid and
NT. However, now that I'm seeing some of the results,
I must say I'm impressed. I have about 24
workstations from Avid and my new NT 24p with 16x9 pan and
scan runs like a rock. It's also been built very
invisible to a Mac user which makes my life very easy. Any
of my editors can run it after learning just the
save window. I now wish I had 24 of them. This
transition will be costly but there's a bright future for
As for Softimage, we use it also
and consistently make money on the investment. It was
bad timing for a buy out, but a good stratigic move.
"Now can someone please tell me why the share
price of AVID has been climbing for the past several
days in spite of all the indices dropping like rocks
off the World Trade Center in NYC."
Avid is not a stock. It's more like a religion.
Toss out all you know about logic, finance, business,
and trends. Think more of love, fear, anger,
manipulation, and hope. Watch how Avid is seen by it's loyal
users and the stock will follow.
many mac users still see the Avid management is
anti-mac and pro-PC. Until that changes, the stock will
remain in the toilet regardless of any other factors
including what happens elsewhere in the market, because
most follow nothing but Avid. Most Avid stock owners
are really Avid owners/ users. I guess the Avid
management missed their business school lesson on supply and
demand. ("OK, let's sell something our customers have
repeatedly said they don't want....")
You may say Sony has been the biggest winner in
the last 5 years of non-linear editing.
Tape based online was only in say five hundered
facilities around the country.
1999- Every block in LA,
nearly every advertising agency, every multi media
company, every audio editing room, now has at least one
video deck, often more than one deck due to
Because nonlinear has drawn the business out to the end
user, Sony has sold more decks than ever before because
nonlinear has grown the industry like never
Egos aside, financially, I'd say Sony loves Avid.
1. The market usually moves on confidence. Avid
is changing a lot of things at the moment. NT,
SoftImage, graphics expansion, server technologies, OMF to
AAF, etc. All things to prompt a wait and see
attitude. Look for NAB in April for this stock to
2. Many holders of Avid stock have been small users
that have made money in the last 18 months. They can
get out now and feel like they made money. It's a
move toward more stable personal portfolios.
The statement should have said more to the truth
that they don't see "their" technolgies replacing
existing technologies in audio. They've had their clock
cleaned by Digidesign systems which are built for
flexibility and use computer industry standard drive formats,
networks, operation commands, etc. In fact, the growing DVD
re-mastering market is turning very successful for Digidesign.
That market was to be Sonic's saving
Digidesign on the other hand continues to expand with it's
just released Pro Control, the first major format
console based entirely on their proven workstation
technology. Because they continue to expand their markets
they are one of the most feared competitors in the
giant audio industry for film, video, music, radio, and
multi-media. Their Pro Control integrated system at $70K is
competing with $200K - $1M "mix only" large audio consoles
and winning due to it's single integrated recall and