Come on people and smell the profits of this company! 33% profit margin, Idelalisib , Momelotinib , Simtuzumab on their way, with Idelalisib up for its PDUFA on Ayg 6 for CLL, and on Sept 11 for MCL. Momelotinib for myelofibrosis is in phase 3, and Simtuzumab for fibrosis and IPF in phase 2. If all three are approved, together these three drugs could bring in $7-10 billion of new revenue. The fact is that GILD's valuation is justified even if Sovaldi didn't exist! But to lop off 5.5 BILLION in valuation over Merck's purchase of Idenix is nuts. This was written previously in BioWorld (Sorry, I don't have a date):
"Leerink Swann analyst Howard Liang sees Gilead, of Foster City, Calif., in the driver’s seat given previous rulings, “We believe the USPTO Trial and Appeal Board decision in March 2013, the first independent ruling from a third-party authority on this matter, provided important technical details that appear to favor Gilead.”
“Based on our review, the Merck and Idenix patents do not appear to specifically provide examples of nucs with 2’-methyl, 2’-fluoro-sustituted sugar, the class of nucs including sofosbuvir that Pharmasset had focused on.” Liang wrote.
Gilead should be at $120; $150+ with Sovaldi.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
would you please stop spamming all of the boards with MSTX? You might get paid to post, but we don't get paid to read. Also, I can assure you I'm less interested in buying MSTX now than before you showed up.
Actually I like Cramer. He makes several wrong calls, but who doesn't? Overall he's smart, instinctive, and has an impressive base of knowledge across all sectors of the market. Take him for what he is: a highly opinionated guy whose opinions often are on the mark.
I read the transcript and I have to say that from my point of view this whole "Consensus miss" was much ado about nothing. And to see analysts shaving $15 off of their targets is almost laughable. The bottom line is it doesn't matter whether JAZZ does $8 or $8.20 this year. It's a friggin 15X PE on a 30% growth company! That's a PEG of .5! The transcript made it clear that there were a couple of anomalies in the first quarter on scripts and processing that should go away by second quarter, and they made it clear that there is growth both in volume and in number of patients for Xyrem. I was also very pleased with the launch of Defitelio (defibrotide), with $15 million in sales. The current label is for severe VOD (Hepatic veno-occlusive disease) that occurs after stem cell transplantation, which is about 4000 people worldwide. That's a 400 mill opportunity. But if the label expands - which it might - particularly into a prophylactic therapy - the market goes from 4000 to 40000. (There are about 53,000 patients in the EU and US that receive blood and bone marrow transplants, 17% develop VOD, and about a third of those develop severe VOD. As you can see, that's a small market. The drug is close to $100,000 in Europe, and I imagine it will be around $150,000 in the US. There is very strong evidence in clinical trials showing that defibrotide offers significantly better results if used as prophylactic therapy, in VOD rates and transplant rejection rates. If that market opens up, this could be a mega blockbuster drug. In either case, adding 400 mill to 1 billion in revenues to Jazz's 1.1 billion in 2014, gives it a significant upside with that drug alone. So taking the $10 eps for 2015, and giving it an 18 multiple - you get into the $180's, which is where a couple of analysts are. There rest are in the $165 range.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Read about Enanta's new class of antibiotics, currently being tested on MRSA: Bicyclolides.
The Google this: WHO’s first global report on antibiotic resistance reveals serious, worldwide threat to public health.
Then do a "find on this page" and type MRSA.
This definitely should not be a press release from NWBO solely. It either should come from MD Anderson as someone else just pointed out, or a joint release, which is the strongest IMHO. My preliminary draft: "Recently a reporter quoted a doctor who practices in the oncology department of MD Anderson, regarding a phase1/2 cancer trial being conducted at two MD Anderson sites on behalf of Northwest Biotherapeutics. The quotes, which were taken out of context, suggested that the data disseminated by Northwest Bio thus far may be misleading, or that disseminating the data itself is inappropriate for the protocols of the trial. As the supervising physician at MD Anderson overseeing these trials and the primary contact with Northwest Bio in sharing data as it becomes available, I can say without reservation that all data presented to the public to date has been accurate and in accordance with an unblinded, open label study that is primarily observational by design. MD Anderson will provide a complete set of data to NW Bio at the conclusion of this trial, which at the time will be framed within traditional efficacy measurements."
If Alexion can have a valuation of $31 billion on $1.78 billion in annual revenue, and Regeneron can have a $29.4 billion valuation with $2.1 billion in revenue, then Gilead can sure have $120.7 billion on $13.7 billion in revenue, which we all know is going to be $21 billion this year. In fact, using the average of those other two companies, Gilead should have a valuation of $213 billion BEFORE factoring in the extra $7 billion in revenue. Which, by the way, is just slightly below the high target on price: $135 per share. CELG, GILD, REGN, AND ALXN, and BIIB are the NEW big biotech companies!
I'm still not expecting much on this quarter. Remember, this was the last quarter with any old inventory. Next quarter = 100% new company. I think we'll see some meaningful change in the fall. Anything earlier will be a jolt to the upside. Unfortunately expectations are built in that "this is the quarter to watch." It isn't.
Well let's see...best-in-class NS5A inhibitor, ACH-2684 second generation, highly potent NS3/4A protease inhibitor, and 3422 very potent NS5B inhibitor that could be up to 7X more potent than Gilead's sovaldi in Gt3. And that's not even including Sovaprevir. Those are the propellers. Maybe not today or tomorrow, but they will run.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
here you go again Malph...now I see why you call yourself Malph; you couldn't get far enough down the alphabet to get to R - oh, wait, I said I wouldn't do that - BUT GEEZ, will you shorts go take a break and learn how to read financial statements or do something contsructive for a change? They have 0 million in CASH and their have a negative burn of $53 million. Do the math - at current burn that 2.6 years of cash requirements. NO SECONDARY - CAPICHE? And that's not including any partnering revenue they might get (which I hope they don't go for - they should sell the company)
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I agree too; usually a company is able to keep their prep work quiet. Obviously someone at Shire or at Citi or at their M&A firm spilled the beans.
"The company reports that the FDA has granted priority review to a New Drug Application (NDA) for idelalisib for the treatment of relapsed CLL. A target review date under the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) has been set for August 6, 2014. Previously, the FDA granted idelalisib a Breakthrough Therapy designation in relapsed CLL. The designation is given to drug candidates that may offer major advances in treatment over existing options.Separately, the FDA has accepted an NDA for idelalisib for the treatment of patients with iNHL. The FDA has granted a standard review for the iNHL NDA, with a target review date under PDUFA set for September 11, 2014."
I had posted that I was concerned about the revenues last quarter, going from 15 mill to 17.8 mill. I think the reason is churn. We are now at the stage when patients are dropping out of Gattex use due to inefficacy. Remember, 6 out of 10 patients in phase 3 saw no reduction in parenteral infusions or IV. So if they are adding net 50 new patients per month, they need to grow their scripts base at a rate that's 40% faster than the dropout rate, which they didn't do (yet), which would explain why revenues didn't jump another 5-6 mill but instead went up less than 3 mill. So I've turned more neutral on the stock until I see they can ramp faster than this. Europe will obviously help, but that will take months to gain traction there. Januvia will surely be huge. I think I may get back in before the PDUFA date on that.
Pfizer set it off with Astrazenica. Companies are worried that Congress will act to close the tax loophole of companies buying a pharma co in a country with lower tax rates and then relocating headquarters in order to get those tax rates. Thought is that any transactions before any new law will be grandfathered. Jazz may get some renewed acquisition interest as a result.
(4) Your best guess or range for the buy-out price
Anywhere from $10-25 a share. Most likely in the $15 range. Of course I'm saying this in the middle of a Lord-of-the-flies message board, so overrun by shorts that they have whipped themselves up into an orgasmic frenzy. With a 30+ short position, how could they be wrong? Want to know what the short position was on Idenix when Merck bought them out? 30% :-)