I'm probably going to hold. I think there's enough institutional interest to absorb the freed up shares, if the insiders sell.
Ok thx igonber. Congrats btw on staying away from LPTH! Fortunately I turned by shares in for call options so I only lost 25% of the original amount. I'm still in AAVL
Only fools play for pennies sidelurker. And I don't believe you in any case. No one worthy of trading would make that trade. 10,000 shares or 100 calls, maybe, for 12 cents. Otherwise, I have no idea what you're thinking. This could gap up 50 cents or a dollar and ruin your sandcastle!
UBS analyst Andrew Peters weighed in on Achillion Pharmaceuticals on May 20, downgrading his rating from Buy to Neutral and cutting his price target from $19 to $11.50. The analyst attributed his downgrade to the limited potential upside the Achillion and Johnson & Johnson collaboration has for the stock.
Overall, Andrew Peters has a 58% success rate recommending stocks and a +20.7% average return per recommendation.
Similarly on May 20, JMP Securities analyst Liisa Baykodowngraded her rating on Achillion Pharmaceuticals from Outperform to Market Perform with a price target of $24. The analyst believes the deal’s platform “appears to have blockbuster potential” but prefers to hold out until the company starts to benefit from outsourcing its hepatitis C virus pipeline.
Liisa Bayko has an overall success rate of 73% recommending stocks and a +55.2% average return per recommendation.
I'll take Liisa's 73% over Andrew's 58%, and her 55% return per rec over his 20% per rec, however those are calculated.
I couldn't believe that isonep blew up. That was a surprise to say the least. I'm now making a big bet on Avalanche. (AAVL) And Spark (ONCE). If those fail, I'll take a break. I've been up and down )250,000 this year so far, and as of June 1 it looks like I'll break even for the year. I still have 7 months to go!
aside from making money, and purely for entertainment value if nothing else, I sure hope GILD or ABBV or BMY or ALXN, or whomever throws a curve ball into this with a bid. Wouldn't that be fun?
3102 and Olysio are both proven drugs. The only big outstanding question is which nuc will work with the two of them without tox, and will the three play well in the sandbox together. I think we'll find out a lot sooner than people think.
well, I can say this - after looking at ACHN for the remainder of this year, if I get the impression that the stock is in a rut for a long time, I'll sell and move on. Right now I'm sticking around to watch any firework shows.
rcwc, I was answering this: "If the 3102 is worth $2B alone, and JNJ bought 15% of the company for $225M, that means JNJ (and management) valued the entire company at $1.5B. The argument is specious at best. Why would a company sell 15% of itself and accept an 18% royalty rate (for a net to other owners of 15.3%) when they could earn the $8B revenue you are projecting?"
My answer was "time", as in time to market, time to ramp up multiple phase 2 and 3 trials. Olysio is a homerun PI - it was prescribed off label with sofosbuvir for a year and brought in a billion dollars in revenue. 3102 is best in class, with testing having occurred in over 400 patients. The question is going to be, which nuc is the best with the NS5a and the PI? 335? 516? or 3422? One of them should work well (I still believe it will be 3422, in which case ACHN got royally short changed); as long as at least one ACHN drug is in the combo - they get the same percentage, 15-22%. And maybe a couple of years earlier. So perhapsACHN is thinking that getting $500 mill- $2 billion in royalty revenue per year is more of a sure thing than getting all $8 billion. Who knows. My only point is that the share price is going to go up based on this deal. And if they hit a home run on this deal, ACHN best case could be worth several billion in 2-3 years. I'm by no means calling it a slam dunk.