i own all three - insm, srpt, and aegr. I sold aegr after it ran to $53, only to watch it run to $62 the same day. I bought back in at 60.98 after I digested the news. This is headed to $100.
Biotech never ceases to amaze me. I sold at 55.8 as it started falling from $9 gain. Only to see it up $15. Holy sh&! Is regeneron buying this out tonight or something? This is nuts!
unless we see some news by end of day or tomorrow, i.e. a buyout, I think we just witnessed a classic short squeeze. We hit a pain point and one or more big shorts tried to cover and drove the price up $10. It is plausible since AEGR has been going up nearly every day for two weeks.
Inger, you don't know what you are talking about. It is diluted bleach the way KERX's ferric citrate is really ferric ammonium citrate. Wrong! OCLS has 24 issued patents and 100+ pending applications "directed to chemical compositions, apparatuses, methods of manufacturing and therapeutic uses." Diluted bleach does not receive a USD patent. It may be a simple compound, just like Niaspan was for King Pharmaceuticval (long-release form of Niacin), but it can make millions.
why is short interest continuing to grow on KERX? I don't understand what the short sellers are seeing here- KERX has a strong patent portfolio, the drug is not a "salt" of ferric ammonium citrate as the shorts claim, and KERX based on Zenerex alone is worth about $1.5 billion. If the top line data on CKD study comes in positive, KERX will be worth $2.5-3 billion, or about $30-37 a share.
160 prescriptions written - at this rate there will be 500 written by year end and the high side of the 200-300 patients on therapy. This likely translates to $150 million in 2014 instead of the initial projection of $100 million. Add to that the Natpara data presentation in June, and quarterly uptake numbers coming in much stronger than projected, and you've got a $22-$25 share price in short order. You also have a beautiful buyout target for anyone from Sanofi-Genzyme to Glaxo.
As far as I can tell, no NEW information was given at the CC. All the risks right now are exactly the same as before. Xyrem has a strong patent portfolio, and they are likely going to be able to fend off generics. Here is what the CEO said at a conference in March of 2013:
"Yes, so Xyrem, we're fortunate to have very strong IP protection around Xyrem. We have 11 issued patents covering the product. Those patents include formulation patents, method of use patents and patents around our restricted distribution system, as Xyrem is a controlled substance with very, very tightly controlled distribution. So we do have 2 ANDA filers, as Doug points out. We're in litigation with both -- that litigation, though, the first -- in the first case has been ongoing for several years, is still in a fairly early stage. No trial date has been set. We still haven't had expert discovery. And right now, activities in that case are stayed while we wait for the judge to decide whether to consolidate 2 recently issued patents into the rest of the litigation. Although this product has been on the market for more than 10 years now, we continue to pursue aggressive intellectual property, both development of new intellectual property, as well as protection of the intellectual property we already have. So we had new patents issue in September and December last year. Some people know we have additional patents winding their way through the system, including at least 1 that's now been allowed. So the litigation remains complex."
Here's the gist of what happened, i.e. the reason for the sell-off: (From the 10Q):
"In addition, we are continuing our work on various regulatory matters, including our work with the FDA on updated documents that we have submitted to the FDA on our Xyrem Risk Management Program. The updated documents are intended to conform to current formatting requirements for REMS required by law, as well as to make other updates to the program and its documentation. While we cannot predict the timing of finalization, or the final terms, of approved REMS documents for Xyrem, we expect that the FDA will require final REMS documents that will result in, or permit, modifications to aspects of the Xyrem Risk Management Program, which may include the ability to distribute Xyrem through more than one pharmacy. We also expect that the final REMS documents will include requirements that are not currently implemented in the Xyrem Risk Management Program. Any such modifications or additional requirements could potentially make it more difficult or expensive for us to distribute Xyrem, make it easier for future generic competitors to enter the market and/or negatively affect sales of Xyrem. "
god don't remind me abouot margin. That's like a drug. I lost nearly half a million doing margin buying, which is the equivalent of doing meth. It shouod be illegal to buy on margin!
Let's just follow the last quarter ER conference call, shall we? The CEO said no meaningful revenues until Q2, and more ramp up in Q3 and Q4. So that means that Q1 will likely have higher expenses, ramping up, and lower revenues, as he said. Given the approval process for insurance coverage, I don't expect some big surprise in patient count. Which means a dumass sell off of 1-3 dollars on earnings. i have already made 20K on this stock, so I sold 2/3 today, and depending on stock performance between now and earnings may sell the rest. Longer term this is at least a $20 stock, if not more.
And Samsung will be the buyer. I predict it will go for about $575-$600 mill, or about $27-28 a share. But first Samsung will see how much trraction they get with S4. But will $200 mill in revenues, with $100 mill of that being Samsung's, with about a 40 mill in cost, SAmsung saves $60 million a year at this rate, and once sales hit $150 mill from Samsung revenues, they save about 90 mill a year. That could be in a year. 90 mill is a 15% return on their cash, ewhich is a hell of a lot better than parking it. Plus they gain a competitive advantage and could easily see another few hundred mill in sales as a result. Let's not forget that Samsung sells about 300 million phones a year. This is chump change. They are gonna buy it.
Based on the stance that the EU took on Qsymia, I think Arena wanted to wait, perhaps for a year or more of actual sales in the US to gather enough data on safety and efficacy before re-applying. They may have spoken to officials at CHMP and may have been told approval was unlikely, or, they may have just sensed a high degree of skepticism. But I'm speculating. Did they say why in the CC?
I think what this quarter showed was that their new lines are being well received, and that in spite of a bad March they beat estimates. That means that Crox, unlike DECK as of yet, has truly turned the corner and is back in growth mode. This bodes well going forward, and as I've pointed out in my posts, they have about 11-14 pairs of shoes on Amazon's bestseller list (top 100) which is a pretty good indicator of demand. So I agree - this goes up tomorrow. The shorts at this point need to cover.