that's exactly right Patchen, and your price is about where it will sell for too. My bet is Shire, Teva, or Biogen.
I was right on the revenue part, off on the eps. If tomorrow is a down day for biotech, I think this will sell off another 4-5. If it's an up day, it won't sell off. Looks like guidance is 1 billion below consensus of 24 billion. They raised the lower end and kept the higher end at 23 billion.
I am expecting revenues to very close to estimates, and eps to beat by .10-.20. I am not expecting a huge blowout like last quarter, mainly because insurers (and Euro healthcare) appear to have been much more aggressive in metering care this past quarter. So I am expecting a selloff, followed by another build in price past where we are now. We'll see!
1.7 million shares short and only 484,000 treaded after hours. My bet is that only half of that is short covering. This is a perfect short squeeze scenario. You can tell because it hit +27 after hours. This isn't headed back down anytime soon. I really think someone like Shire will take this out before year end!
Magnam, I have not actually read the applications but based on everything I researched I agree with everything you posted. In my mind the only thing standing between ACHN at $11 and ACHN at $40-$50 a share is 3422 efficacy. In my view 3102 and sovaprevir together are worth $15 a share WITHOUT 3422, so I'm not worried.
yup Sarepta would be good. My money is on that, plus Receptos for a Shire buyout! They wanted to buy NPSP prior to the ABBVIE merger, so we'll see if that's back on the table. I'm still out of NPSP until I see this quarter results. (I was in big a couple months ago).
great! Add BLUE, ISIS, and MGNX! RCPT is begging for a buyout. An MS drug that is the best to come along in a decade, and now positive results in UC and likely in Chron's. Disease. if RPC 4046 pans out for eosinophilic esophagitis , all the more reason to buy this. RPC1063 is a $3-4 billion drug in an of itself.
Alex, are you really accusing Magnam being "Frustrated at not having success in investing"? Magnam is having quite a lot of success investing in ACHN so far, and I suspect far more than you, who is probably under water. How did I guess that? I went back and read your posts going back a year, and you were making an awful lot of noise shorting GoPro at $46 and $47. It went to $98 after that. I'm sure you covered at some point at a big loss. In fact, I couldn't see where you had made any money, anywhere in your posts. Looks to me like you just bounce around on to stocks that have had some good and fast appreciation and short it, without really spending time understanding the science or the market potential behind the products of the companies you short. That's why you got burned on GoPro, and it's why you'll likely get burned on ACHN too.
Magnum, not sure that's apples to apples. Sovaldi plus ledispivar had a 68% clearance after 6 weeks (42 days). This is a 43% clearance in 28 days. We don't know what Regulus' drug does in 6, 8, or 12 weeks, and we also don't know what higher doses can do. Yet. Not sure where their price goes after a virtual double!
given all the crap they put in chewing gum these days, it very well could destroy tumors, along with the rest of you.
Newlink is perhaps one of the cheapest biotechs out there with two robust technology platforms, one called Hyperacute Immunotherapy (modifying cancer cells to express alpha-gal, an enzyme found in other animals but not humans, which then trains the immune system to attack these otherwise evasive cancer cells with a plethora of pre-existing antibodies that attack alpha-gal and thereby destroy the cell. It's brilliant technology - let's hope it pans out. The second one of course is their IDO Pathway Inhibitor Platform that rapidly identifies small molecules that can disrupt - by suppressing IDO-1 and IDO-2 enzymes - the mechanisms that cancer cells use to evade the immune system. With Bristol Myers Squibb's immune checkpoint inhibitor Ipilimumab (Yervoy) on a trajectory to generate $1.5-2 billion the next twelve months, Roche sees huge potential in Newlink's IDO Pathway Inhibitor Platform. Newlink's IDO inhibitors are in another class of immune checkpoint inhibitors to which Yervoy also belongs. (Yervoy is a monoclonal antibody that specifically targets ctla-4, a protein receptor that inhibits T Cell activation). Newlink exclusively owns Idoximod for HER-2 negative breast cancer and prostate cancer, which if successful could be a $2 billion drug. Roche, so far, only has claims to NLG919, which in my mind was merely a $150 million payment to plant a flag in this technology platform to form a working relationship for an eventual buyout. That event could be triggered by positive data from the Hyperacute side, or separately positive data from the Idoximod trials. Immune checkpoint inhibitors, and, separately, the genetic modification of T cells to recognize and attack cancer cells, are two of the most promising leading-edge immunotherapy technologies in development today. The Ebola vaccine? White noise. Either one of Newlink's platforms is worth $3 billion (each) if the data holds up, and I believe that Roche is targeting Newlink for their Immunology division.
Ireland's tax rate remains at 12.5%.They only eliminated the "The double-Irish manoeuvre, which involves making tax-free royalty payments to subsidiaries that are incorporated in Ireland but are tax residents of a country with no corporate income tax. The Budget 2015 changes will require companies incorporated in Ireland to also be Ireland tax residents. The details of how this will work were not revealed on Tuesday but will be included in the upcoming Finance Bill. The change will be effective January 1st 2015. There will be a transition rule that will apply until the end of 2020 for companies in existence before 2015, giving them time to restructure their businesses.
While the Budget 2015 statement eliminates the double-Irish loophole, it does not raise Ireland’s low 12.5% corporate tax rate. Other tax-minimisation strategies involving Ireland are also not affected."
right now the market is treacherous - big institutionals let smaller investors bid up the market in the morning, and then slam it down in the afternoon. I stepped to the side until this market decides what it is going to do.