not enough is the simple answer. I think CLDX will be worth 6-8 billion in 2-3 more years. It's at 1.6 billion now. I doubt anyone would pay that much today.
yes it could have been baker brothers or someone like that stepping in, but I also think a lot of longs started dumping out of relief when it went to $4.50+, and then bought back in when it kept going up. Similarly, shorts shorted multiple tikmes today, and covered as many as well. Lots o\f day trading on this I'm sure. I agree that this price action is rare, but the rarest of all that I've ever seen was AQXP shooting up to $55 from $3 and then dropping like a rock. I left big bucks on that table!
Ivan, aka heather your wife's name, I wasn't suggesting that the ride down was justified - I posted days go that the relentless downward spiral was pure short manipulation. I'm only wondering when and how the FDA gave guidance.
Actually it says this: "...announces that it is moving forward with the development program for ANAVEX 2-73. Guidance received from the FDA confirms the Company’s strategy to advance ANAVEX 2-73 for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease in a larger double-blinded, randomized, placebo-controlled Phase 2/3 trial."
Guidance...confirms company's strategy...which was set at the beginning. All I'm saying is that AVXL (you reading this, AVXL marcom?) would get an even larger bump if they can say "We received FDA guidance about continuing with a larger, double-blinded study after discussing initial phase 2a data with the FDA." So say that if you JUST received the guidance!
In the meantime, the shorts aren't covering yet because, just as the longs waited too long to dump their shares, the shorts are now going to wait too long to cover. They will throw in the towel if they see the price holds up to and through close (I think we'll close over $6.50, but we'll see of course), and/or if it continues upward momentum tomorrow and the rest of this week. I suggest everyone do what I did and increase their positions by 60% right now! All together longs! :-)
Let's get the disclosures out of the way first: 1) I'm long. 2) I loaded up more at $4 today. 3) I don't believe AVXL should have released any data at 5 weeks, but should have waited until 12 weeks. 4) Nonetheless, I am convinced that the "one back" memory data (and secondary measures) are real - to have that kind of statistical movement after 5 weeks with 75% of patients who were on donepezil already for 3 months seems remarkable. 5) I believe that the 12 week data will continue to be positive given the early trend and that when (and if) it is, this stock will be a bottle rocket. 6) I would not be surprised that the FDA grants breakthrough status if data at 12 weeks continues to show this trend, and if AVXL applies for it. Lots of potential positive catalysts.
My one beef todaty is that it is unclear if the FDA gave guidance AFTER the early data was given to them, or if AVXL is merely reiterating the guidance that the FDA gave upon the commencement of the adaptive design trial. If its the latter, the Press release is very cleverly worded. In the meantime, I'll take the gains. I do hope the company will clarify whether they had a meeting with the FDA with the 2a data in hand or not.
BPX-501 will greatly expand the number of transplant procedures that can be done due to increased safety, faster recovery, less infection, far less if any graft versus host disease, and much quicker immune system restoration. All of these improvements will have an economic benefit - patients will have fewer ICU days, in-hospital days, and fewer relapses, translating into billions of dollars of savings globally. Until a company like Bluebird makes transplants obsolete, which won't happen for another 10-20 years if at all, BPX-501 could easily become Standard of Care adjunct therapy. Perhaps it will add $20,000 per transplant to the $80,000-$300,000 current price tag, depending on the closeness of the match and complexity of the procedure. There are currently around 45,000 procedures a year. If Bellicum's T cell cocktail expands the number of possible procedures AND is used as added safety in existing levels, this could be a billion dollar cell therapy in 5-7 years. Not to mention the four other therapies being developed by BLCM. Once this possibility becomes a reality for future growth, BLCM could sport the same market cap of KITE, which is 3.5 billion. That would put BLCM at $132 a share. I actually wouldn't be surprised if AMGN makes a play for KITE next year, perhaps picking up a BLCM in the process. But for my money, cell therapy 2.0 is now BLCM and CLLS (JUNO and KITE are 1.0). If CLLS' off the shelf therapies work more broadly, watch out below for JUNO and KITE!
add this to the above address
Steven that's not entirely true about a buyout. If the triple combo works (i.e. in 4-8 weeks), JNJ immediately ramps to about 5-10 billion in sales per year, depending on the speed of cure. (One can argue that if their cure rate is at 6 weeks or less, Harvoni is DOA (dead on arrival) just as Harvoni killed JNJ's billion dollar NS3/4A PI Olysio)That's a $1-2 billion royalty for ACHN. That alone will make ACHN worth $3-6 billion in a buyout (and don't think for a second that a third party will buy this out right under the nose of JNJ, given the opportunity). And if at that time the Complement D program has any legs at all, add that in to the purchase price. (In a very big way I might add - just look at the market cap of ALXN.) So Mag can talk about bidding wars all he wants - they could be very real, very soon.
I had no idea that idiocy had so many shades of grey. And I also had and continue to have no idea why Achillion continues to attract the top echelon of that class. No bioX, of course I'm not talking about you. Don't worry your pretty little head about my rants.
OMG of course not! $10.47 are you kidding me??? There's NO WAY we'll ever see that again. NOT WHEN 72,000,000 SHARES TRADED HANDS TO TAKE IT FROM $7.20 TO $10.47!!! Clearly dude-bio-X, there's just no demand for this stock!!!!
That's correct. According to Dr. Mcfarlane, 75% of the patients had been on Donepezil for at least 12 weeks. Nearly 100% of the stabilizing effect of Donepezil occurs at 6 weeks of treatment, and starts to decline after that.
(Any AD docs out there to fact check me?) Given that, it would have been harder for 2-73 to show any effect, not easier.