Small numbers, amazing anecdotal success stories. PBT2 is one of the first drugs not to attack symptoms, but cause. I think this is going to fly to $10 before results are released.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Money - was in ANIK? Another biotech? I've been off and on these boards for years, so very well could be. Best to you as well.
That dip you saw from $119 to $116 and back? that was a managed short exit - Almost a million shares traded hands in that dip - that was 80% of the shorts exiting - less than a million shares are short. This thing has legs now.
Money, I totally agree with you. the shorts are beating their chests but I think this will close over $120 and will fly with second indication being approved shortly. I think J&J will buy them out. No reason to share a $7 billion revenue stream.
yeah the shorts really do work the heck out of this stock. Given the volume, there must be at least a couple of respectably sized hedge funds who have gone short of this. I'm surprised that Adam F. didn't at least give lip service to the longs case: the patients have been vetted by multiple players who know about patent law, the drugs are NCE worthy and will likely get the patent extensions, the generic phosphate binders don't hold a candle to Zerenex in terms of cost savings by reduction in IV iron and ESA's, and that between Rockwell and Keryx, Triferic and Zerenex will own a good chunk of a 2 billion market.
this doesn't sound much better than the generic phosphate binders already on the market. Both Zerenex and Triferic from Rockwell are game-changing treatments in this field.
I think sales will come in at 45 mill (30 mill royalties, 15 mill Gattex), 200+ patients on therapy full the full quarter, 450 prescriptions written, guidance raised to 35-40 mill for 2013 Gattex.
yes, this is very good news. VC's are cashing out some of their shares which creates more stability in the stock without dilution. Retail investors interpret this as insider selling (which it is, but not because of the prospects for the company - VC#$%$ milestones and they take their returns) or dilution (not).
that last $1 fall was a short attack - there are some big shorts in here so this stock will be very volatile. Now comes another round of covering, would be my bet
kerx will be aria - you're a fool! Stop wasting your time trying to convince longs to sell and instead go cover your #$%^!
upgrades will come - we had our first one yesterday to $22. They will fall into place now in the $20's at least.
Unless you have gone through the experience of dealing with stage 3 or 4 leg or foot wounds, you cannot fully appreciate what Grafix is able to accomplish. Prior to passing my dad developed a stage 4 wound on his ankle that started from his slippers rubbing his ankle the wrong way. He had peripheral vascular disease and very little blood circulation in his feet, which is required for healing. As a result of the wound he had to wear pressure stockings and had his would dressed daily. The state-of-the-art care at the time (2004) was, I believe, a silver alginate wound dressing manufactured by KCI (the other big player is Smith and Nephew). It had about a 15-20% effect on his wound, but it was still a gaping hole (you could see the tendons). For Grafix to come along and close 50-70% of open wounds, included ones that were pre-treated unsuccessfully, is mind-blowing. It costs a few thousand dollars form the would treatment, and several thousand more due to the chronic nature of care for wounds. We are talking about doctors, nurses, hospital visits, dressings, wheelchairs, crutches, and more. In severe cases, there is no choice but amputation, which is tens of thousands of dollars. So if the market for Grafix is a billion in direct revenue, it will save perhaps as much as two billion more in total costs associated with chronic wounds. What this means is that Grafix will enjoy powerful pricing flexibility and very high margins. Assuming Osiris gains rapid traction in the wound care business, the stock is an easy double from here.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I suspect that NPSP's decline in the past couple days was due to AEGR. While they beat, they went from $6 up to $8 down. I don't think investors like the amount of the beat. They were expecting much more. NPSP, while a better company, is similar to AEGR with it's one drug on a launch trajectory. Both drugs are priced exactly the same. Both companies have approximately the same patient numbers so far. So they are good comps for each other.
I think system_architect's numbers are right on the money, give or take a million. I was coming in at around 22 mill. In any case, I think we will have a win here. the analysts didn't put up big numbers for this quarter.