Notwithstanding the fact that I was being a little facetious in my post for the reason behind an absent press release, spader, you need to dial it down, cowboy! The serious part about my post is that anyone including you would be a fool not to think there have been some very quiet talks with potential acquirers over the past few months about what a deal would look like, pending FDA approval. ACAD has been discussed by analysts for over two years as a potential acquisition target, and those discussions, if any exist, don't start the day AFTER FDA approval. They would have started the day after phase 3 results.
maybe they didn't get a press release out yet because they are nailing down details of a buyout announcement Monday morning...
right, they should have a conference call. Correct me if you think I'm wrong, but they just eliminated the 5/ug dose, which equates to the .005/mg dose that was successful in phase 2 trials. The 1/ug and.5/ug translates to .001/mg and .0005/mg significantly lower doses than the one shown to be effective. Is this continuation a hail mary pass? Somebody fact check me!
Holing, that thumbs down was meant to be a thumbs up but my thumb on iPhone missed the correct thumb! I agree with you!
I found it interesting that they terminate their Centerview relationship the day before they announce March scripts. Looks like once again the offers were not high enough.
Here's another reason why I question the motives of an analyst that makes an 11th inning bearish call on a company that IS ALREADY IN PLAY: valuations in a buyout are usually in part based on a premium over either a 5, 10, or 30 day stock price average. Not that it will solely determine the buyout price, but it definitely gives the buyer negotiating leverage to say "this is what the market thinks you're worth."
Any observer knows the cash burn is commensurate with market size, and right now this is a land grab. There is a lot of educating to do about benefits relative to ZS. As I've said earlier, we'll need to see that spend pay off fairly soon in sales ramp, but with a buyout pending the equation is now a little different, in my opinion. Let's see what March numbers look like...
To weigh in with a neutral rating and a 50/50 speculation on probability of a buyout AFTER Relypsa hired an M&A broker to field offers simply smells like a hidden agenda to be. This wasn't just a rumor, second time around. No firm was hired last time this happened. This time the buyout discussions are out in the open. A $22 call is an irresponsible analyst looking for an audience, IMHO.
martok, take your turrets-syndrome-infested-spammer mentality to Yelp or somewhere else. You are wasting eye movement.
I hear ya about 3X. First timed I've ever stayed in longer than a day, but so far I've captured both the oil rally and the biotech rally, so I'm not complaining. I have a lot of ground to cover. I think we'll know in another day whether RLYP indeed put in a bottom at 12.27. I think it did. My options on ACAD are June, to give it time for a May approval. We will see!
lurker, after taking the bath of my life on biotech since last April, I sold everything and moved into LABU, a 3X biotech leveraged ETF that tracks the NBI, and UWTI that tracks oil futures. I'm still holding ACAD June options - we'll see how that goes - so far terribly. I think RLYP may have found a bottom at 12.27.We'll know in the next couple of weeks I think. One solid scripts report will solidify the bottom and this can start moving up.
My take on the money spend, as some have suggested, is that Orwin is trying to shore up as much market share as possible, educate docs as much as possible about Veltassa's long term benefits, and expand the label as quickly as possible before AZT's 6,000 member sales force hits the streets, where a sizable portion are focused on cardio and nephrology: From their website:
"AstraZeneca has a patient-centric approach to disease treatment, so we are tackling multiple risk factors by uniting our cardiovascular (CV), metabolic and chronic kidney disease (CKD) disease areas into one integrated approach – cardiovascular and metabolic disease (CVMD).
This approach means we look at the CVMD patient as a whole, rather than by disease area, because we know that cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a well-known consequence of diabetes and CKD. Each of our focus areas seek to further reduce cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, and organ damage by addressing multiple CV risk factors."
Yes, RLYP has Sanofi selling too, but they are simply in a servicing agreement - not the same as a company's own drug where profits are much, much higher. So I'm all in favor of Orwin spending like there's no tomorrow, because now through June 1 is make or break in getting Veltassa entrenched in the market. Even though its a better drug, AZT could drown it out with a lot more noise than 133 sales people can make.
Nobody knows more about loss carry forwards and how they can be used than the CFO of an inquiring company, so no subtle hints need to be given to anyone. This is boilerplate language. I'm afraid you're grasping at straws- not about a potential buyout, but about reading anything into this line.
I don't know if shorts believe that Veltassa is a redux of Auryxia from Keryx or what, but they act like this is going to be another low revenue, high cash burn company. The numbers for February and March are going to be critical, and they are going to need to show exponential and not just incremental growth on the scripts, in order for the shorts to get nervous. Regardless, you can see how in charge they are: the stock opens at 14.96, rises up to 16.69, letting all the longs back into their little trap, and then they push the price right back down to $14. I got out at $17 yesterday before earnings and 'm staying out until there is more visibility on the ramp rate. 20 of the 6000-8000 nephrologists is 1200-1600. If each one has initially 5 qualified patients, we are looking at a reasonably quick ramp to 6000-8000 scripts in short order. But we need to see something dramatic in the next 2-3 months, specially given e high burn rate. We've got 133 salespeople, Sanofi, and Fresenius all pushing this. Another 1000 scripts for February won't cut it, IMHO.