yup and unlike deals that leak to the media, GILD management knows these folks intimately - they had a formal partnership[ for 10 years - so they can get a deal done without a ripple. We'll just wake up one morning soon, and BAM!
mybest, that's EXACTLY why it is likely to be GILD! Gilead likes to own a space, just like HIV. If they have second gen products from ACHN, like 3102, they build a bigger barrier to entry for competitiros;v 3102 is proving to be a better NS5A than what Gilead has with Ledispasvir, and preclinically ACHN's 3422 (a nuc) is potentially far more potent than Gilead's sofosbuvir.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
looks like this scenario may be gaining traction - UBS is now also saying GILD could be the acquirer. I think it's a slam dunk - in September, possibly October. ACHN will probably hold off until they have prelim data on 3422.
thank you Binary. Magnam, where are you? Ok, so here are my big three focus stocks right now: ACHN, KERX, RCPT. GILD is one of my top positions, but I don't have to worry about that one - it's on auto pilot. RCPT to me (in addition to the other two I listed), is one to watch. Take a close look at their phase 2 results for RPC-1063. This drug rivals what Biogen has for MS. And TEVA badly needs a replacement drug for MS. I think this will be taken out this year.
congrats to all the longs! I'm happy with the price. Now on to ACHN, KERX and RCPT. I bought RCPT at $37 and I think they'll be taken out at $75-$100 a share. They have a potential mega-blockbuster.
I just love how they are downgrading the stock - essentially telling folks "that's all she wrote" so they are selling shares at $54+ and taking their profits, right when this has a greater than 50% chance of going up another 30-50% overnight! Wells Fargo was a co-manager in their 2013 stock offering, and GS was the book running manager.
With 28% of the float short, I'm sure you are a little anxious about the recent price action. What's more troubling to you, I'm sure, is the nagging issue that the price keeps to creep upward, now at 10.15 and climbing after hours. And as a short you are painfully aware that with such a large short position, the price is getting dangerously close to triggering a short squeeze, which, when it occurs, could easily drive the price past $15 a share. My advice: cover before it's too late. You still have tremendous opportunity to make a lot of money by going long!
Jude, no offense, but NO ONE pumping this stock (or dumping) on this site could possibly affect the stock price!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
sure. There is a great chance that 3422 will work better than Sovaldi. So they wouldn't shutter it, they'd study it. and I think they'll be willing to pay more than that to get ACHN's drugs. Gild knows this company well, and they believed in their science and research enough to keep the formal collaboration for 10 years.
Don't know what aspect of the drug will gain them a patent. You say, "If you read those patents every obvious uridine change has already been claimed," so can you please provide a link to the description of that patent in question? Much appreciated.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Remember binary, this only gets us through the safety hurdle. While toxicity doesn't appear to be a problem, and so far no interaction issues with 3102, 3422 still has to prove solid efficacy in humans, and also no interaction issues with 2684 and/or Sovaprevir. We still have a ways to go, but what I'm hoping is that a player with 10-100X the market cap and cash flow comes along and decides to buy ACHN right now to get a dozen trials in the works immediately, and ramp these phases up significantly faster than ACHN can do on its own, or even with a partner. Personally I'm keeping my fingers crossed that ACHN does not partner with double digit royalties yadiyadiyada. They need to be bought out and then ramped up fast!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I've been digging into the patent fight between Merck/Idenix and Gilead, since if Merck prevails it might have implications against Achillion's 3422. And I also wanted to see why Gilead's patent protection on Sovaldi wouldn't be able to trump 3422 as well. So to the first part, Gilead's 10K from last year explains the patent dispute between themselves and Idenix quite well, and also why Gilead thinks it will prevail. You can find it in Gilead's 10k 2013, and scroll down to "Interference Proceedings and Litigation with Idenix Pharmaceuticals, Inc." in the legal disputes section.
To the second part, since ACHN used sofosbuvir as a "proxy" in its test with 3102, it made me wonder if 3422 was going to be able to get patent protection, as it is also a uridine-analog nucleotide polymerase inhibitor, just like sofosbuvir is, most likely with the same mechanism of action.
The answer, I believe, is this:
From Achillion's science sheet on 3422: "Structural changes to the uridine base and the ribose sugar provide composition of matter and freedom to operate." Uridine is one of the four basic components of ribonucleic acid (RNA); the other three are adenosine, guanosine, and cytidine. Ribose (β-D-ribofuranose) forms part of the backbone of RNA.
Now, if Merck/Idenix patents prevail against uridine-analog nucleotide polymerase inhibitors in general, then 3422 could be in trouble as well (at least I believe, I'm not an attorney). However, everything I've research says that Gilead will prevail in their patent fight. And 3422 has differentiated composition of matter from sofosbuvir.
So, if Achillion's IP on 3422, 3102, 2684, and sovaprevir seem clear, and since Gilead had a 10-year collaboration with Achillion before buying Pharmacett, I think Gilead just might end up the most interested party in acquiring Achillion. It will ensure complete dominance of the space for 10 years.
4 million shares were covered between 5/20 and 7/31. I really wish Yahoo could make database updates a top priority in their site management. Yahoo are you listening?
just fyi the short interest as of 7/31 now stands at 28% of float, down from 35%. I suspect we'll see some bobbing around of the price every day as shorts continue to unwind their positions.
hey Magnam how's it going? I see you got into quite a long tussle with Mr. Gefvert over there on SI! He refuses to back down, and apparently there are still quite a few shorts that feel the same. The good news is that when big positive news comes out on ACHN, the ensuing short squeeze will add a billion more to the valuation, at least temporarily.
I believe the proof of concept data will bed available in the next couple of months. ACHN said they want to start a phase 2 combo trial before the end of the year with 3422 and 3102.