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Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AEGR) Message Board

faosto 156 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Dec 10, 1997
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  • faosto by faosto Apr 30, 2014 7:17 PM Flag

    They say that Actelion and Sanofi are both looking at ITMN to buy. But my hunch is that Gilead is going to step in and #$%$ them up for $6 billion.

  • If Alexion can have a valuation of $31 billion on $1.78 billion in annual revenue, and Regeneron can have a $29.4 billion valuation with $2.1 billion in revenue, then Gilead can sure have $120.7 billion on $13.7 billion in revenue, which we all know is going to be $21 billion this year. In fact, using the average of those other two companies, Gilead should have a valuation of $213 billion BEFORE factoring in the extra $7 billion in revenue. Which, by the way, is just slightly below the high target on price: $135 per share. CELG, GILD, REGN, AND ALXN, and BIIB are the NEW big biotech companies!

  • Reply to

    My Conference Call Take Aways......

    by optiontrader99 Apr 30, 2014 10:06 AM
    faosto faosto Apr 30, 2014 8:36 PM Flag

    nice recap, thanks

  • Reply to

    My hunch

    by faosto Apr 30, 2014 7:17 PM
    faosto faosto Apr 30, 2014 10:49 PM Flag

    Actelion may try, but I don't think they have the fire power. With them it's more of a merger, as they are only a 10 billion company. I think Gilead will take this out for 6.2 billion or about $68-69 a share. Today Gilead sold their rights to Parion Sciences drug they acquired in 2007, so they seem to be clearing the decks of pulmonary distractions. Gilead knows that they can take Esbriet and turn it into a $1.5 billion drug per year. I'm ready.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • faosto faosto Apr 30, 2014 11:03 PM Flag

    amen.

  • Pfizer set it off with Astrazenica. Companies are worried that Congress will act to close the tax loophole of companies buying a pharma co in a country with lower tax rates and then relocating headquarters in order to get those tax rates. Thought is that any transactions before any new law will be grandfathered. Jazz may get some renewed acquisition interest as a result.

  • Mine is $32 million, $.-49 EPS

  • Reply to

    Should Gilead spin-off HCV business?

    by valuemonkey May 1, 2014 1:56 PM
    faosto faosto May 1, 2014 3:51 PM Flag

    Terrible idea. Yes there is overlap on sales force and infrastructure. Sovaldi by itself would be worth less than its contribution to the Gilead portfolio.

  • Reply to

    Well

    by sdotmollard May 2, 2014 11:41 AM
    faosto faosto May 2, 2014 12:04 PM Flag

    I was reluctant to get back in to PCYC but I did, and now regret the decision. I went back and looked at first year sales of Herceptin and Rituxan. both mega-blockbuster drugs. Last year they did 6 billion and 7 billion in worldwide sales, respectively. In their first year, they each did about $160 million in the US. About 2 bill and 3 bill sales are US, respectively. Pharmacyclics could do something similar by 2024 - 3 billion US and 304 billion rest of world, but they are splitting this with JNJ, and Idelalisib is going to take a chunk of change out of Ibrutinib sales. What I do know is that cancer drugs tend to start slow. They are often at first a second-line indication, like Ibrutinib. soon it will be a first line therapy for multiple blood cancers. That's when sales will start jumping. For the next year, though, I'm not sure there is enough "sales ramp" clarity, especially with another major competitor coming on board in August/September, to make this a great investment right now. So I sold at a loss earlier. I think this could go back up, but it just as easily could go to $67 in a decent market, and $50 in a lousy one.

  • Reply to

    Well

    by sdotmollard May 2, 2014 11:41 AM
    faosto faosto May 2, 2014 12:09 PM Flag

    sorry this was meant to read: Pharmacyclics could do something similar by 2024 - 3 billion US and 3-4 billion rest of world,

  • Reply to

    Why is PCYC dropping on good earnings?

    by wes12312 May 2, 2014 12:14 PM
    faosto faosto May 2, 2014 3:44 PM Flag

    you are not factoring in the milestone payments in each quarter. 4th qtr was $110 mill, This qtr was $60 mill

  • Reply to

    Why is PCYC dropping on good earnings?

    by wes12312 May 2, 2014 12:14 PM
    faosto faosto May 5, 2014 10:39 PM Flag

    of course sales are the only thing that matters. I was addressing the math, and the statement "They did 123M in Q4, and 119M this Q", which made it look like sales went down. they actually went up considerably, after you factor out the milestone payments! Sheesh!

  • Read about Enanta's new class of antibiotics, currently being tested on MRSA: Bicyclolides.

    The Google this: WHO’s first global report on antibiotic resistance reveals serious, worldwide threat to public health.

    Then do a "find on this page" and type MRSA.

  • They should merge!

  • Reply to

    BEAV and PCP

    by faosto May 6, 2014 3:08 PM
    faosto faosto May 6, 2014 4:11 PM Flag

    No I don't own PCP but I used to own both of them. They are both stellar companies and they both serve the aerospace industry. It's a way for both of them to diversify their business more.

  • Reply to

    My Profits on NPSP

    by faina.drazen230 Apr 27, 2014 10:43 AM
    faosto faosto May 6, 2014 4:31 PM Flag

    Hey Yahoo Customer Service- are you reading this? Here's what you do with these spammers. First, how they operate: they open up 15-20 aliases, so that after posting the "ad" about stock alerts, they can follow up with a dozen aliases highly recommending it with thumbs up and phrases like "This is a great resource!!". So, here's what you do: disallow the use of two or more aliases posting to the same message board that are coming from the same IP address. Secondly, do not allow a handle to post if you detect a proxy server or anonymizer software that blocks the real IP address. By doing those two things, a poster will only be able to use one alias per board, and the IP address will have to be coming from someone's computer. That should fix things.

  • I used to own and believe in AEGR. I have been sitting out for quite awhile, wanting to see how the earnings progressed. The r3evenue is totally underwhelming, and unfortunately AEGR isn't growing fast enough to stave off Amgen and Regeneron/Sanofi with their new drugs coming out. Amgen's in particular has been shown to address some of the medical needs of the AEGR patient base. I think the company was a flash in the pan. Just my two cents, and trust me, I'm not short. I'm an observer only right now.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    so is this a shakeout?

    by nyjohnnygray May 6, 2014 1:44 PM
    faosto faosto May 6, 2014 4:55 PM Flag

    I'm trying to decipher the price action myself. What's troubling to me is that Rick Winningham, CEO and chairman of Theravance who sits on JAZZ's board, sold out his JAZZ position of 27,500 shares at $140 on April 17th. That's close enough to earnings for him to know how the company did. So why not hold until after earnings if he thought there would be a jump in price? JAZZ has missed earnings two of the last three quarters, and it has a fairly high number to hit this quarter. So I don't know. I guess I'll go study the price action after the last three earnings reports.

  • Reply to

    One more beat down for the day

    by jrkkek May 7, 2014 12:31 PM
    faosto faosto May 7, 2014 3:42 PM Flag

    I agree about AEGR, but the good news is that NPSP has a vastly better future than AEGR does.

  • ...does NPSP need to move the price up, do you think? I think revenues will be at 49 mill, eps should meet consensus.

AEGR
35.65+5.03(+16.43%)Jul 30 3:59 PMEDT

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