15 million shares short. I think this opens at $15 and could run to $20 or more. Of course, I could be wrong, but there is not way to interpret this as anything less than a doubling of the market cap over the next 1-3 months.
-15% increase in shares to receive $225 million in cash
-up to $1.1 billion in milestone payments
-mid teens to low 20's (call it 18%) rotyalties
Eventual $2.5 billion in revenues x 18% = $450 million annually
complement D franchise valued at $500 mill discounted to present value $200 mill
1 billion potential cash in bank
650 mill revenue stream X 5X = 3.250 billion
add 1 billion cash = 4.25 billion / 135 million shares = $31 a share today
I used to focus on the chaperone drugs - FOLD comes to mind. I owned SNTA briefly but at the time there weren't any near term catalysts. Do you have a link to any recent data on Ganetespib that looks compelling?
I'll take a look at September. That's a pretty pricey call though. I see some of the July calls at 50 and 55 are going through at $6 and $7. AAVL should go up 50% at least on positive results. So far in that department I'm basting zero for 2 this year, well 1/2 to 2. My NLNK just took a $15 hit yesterday (although it will come back), and I lost nearly $40K on CLDN. So AAVL had better come through! I have way too much money in RCPT and BLUE, but also KITE. I may distributer the $$$ between KITE and JUNO. I'm also buying options on LPTN - their ISONEP drug has a readout in June, and it stands a much better chance of success than their failed ARONESP.
Pdbmiami, I suspect that your sister did not have surgery on her cancer; 3-11 months is the norm for survival without resection. My mom died from it as well - 3 months from diagnosis. So did my wife's mom. Keep in mind that only 20% of pancreatic cancer is eligible for resection - still significant, but unfortunately the bulk of cases cannot be helped this way. It's the worst cancer out there in terms of speed. I am really hoping that we hit the .043 P value by 444!
Regarding CLDN - I ignored the tea leaves to my peril - I think the results were known to a few before data release, as the market responded early to CLDNs negative data
Selling Blue is the more prudent way to go to preserve capital, for sure. I can hardly fault you after the royal bath I took in CLDN. I had 40 contracts PLUS 4000 shares, and the shares I had intended to sell just before data release, foolishly believing that it would gap up before that weekend. Instead it gapped down to $13, after I had already lust $3 a share. So I took a $24k hit on the shares BEFORE a $13k hit on the options. Total wipe out. However, I will probably hold both blue and aavl. I think BLUEs announcement that they will discuss their SCD Patient in Vienna is a very good sign, as to me that means there is no negative news thus far that they would have had to report now. The last report on that patient showed neutrophil engraftment so the patient was already well on the way toward a successful gene replacement. And AAVL could be transformative as well. The phase 1, with .33 maintenance injections versus 3 in lucentis group is pretty compelling stuff. More compelling than CLDN IMHO
They really need to write an algorithm that can detect if someone is trying to hijack an existing screen name. It shouldn't be that hard to do. And they should write another algorithm to find kernels of wisdom in the message boards, like this one! ;-)
You're right goodfella, if I were shorting I'd stick with companies that have deteriorating financials, which of course is not something that means much in the biotech space. Everyday a new monkey shows up in the biitech space proclaiming, "but there's no revenue!" , not having a clue how biotech companies are valued. Shorting ACHN is playing Russian roulette.
hi smelk. I don't have the stomach to do options on this stock. I like buy and hold on this one. Glad you're back in. Ladies and gentlemen, may I re-introduce our MC for the evening, Smelky the Kid!
what just happened to GEVA will happen to RCPT, but for 1.5X current price. The company that really need this company the most? TEVA. Coxapone is generic now and they desperately need to replace that revenue with a new MS drug. Of course, I could also see GILD expand into the neuro space and bolster their IBD space at the same time. Roche, Sanofi...I could go on and on as to who would find RCPT attractive.
I agree that management is wrong not to "sell the sizzle" right now and create a bidding war. You can't be looking for a partner and a buyout at the same time very efficiently. Two very different propositions. The message to the ten plus companies reviewing is muddled. I hope the investment banker is both astute and adept.