highly unlikely. I think we will be told the 8 people on Lentiglobin are still progressing, two new people tested, and the sickle cell individual now has full engraftment and is showing signs of healthy hemoglobin and blood cell production.
I sold SRPT a few weeks ago. I didn't like the price action. I didn't like Biomarin buying Prosensa. UI didn't like Santhera having a phase 3 DMD drug. I didn't like the fact that SRPT has done absolutely nothing since testing 6 kids in three years. They could have pulled off an entirely new trial by now instead of sitting around whining.
well, on the other hand, Mr. Madison may have been promoted to get the launch going, not to sell (unless to Genzyme/Sanofi):"Mr. Madison spent 12 years at Genzyme/Sanofi developing extensive commercial and general management expertise as he progressed into roles of increasing responsibilities and leadership, culminating in his most recent role as Vice President and General Manager of the Renal division. In this role, Mr. Madison led a global organization with three marketed products with combined revenues exceeding $1 billion."
I'm very long KERX, but it's a one trick pony with a potential 1.5 billion revenue stream. It needs to get into the hands of a much bigger player to expedite development and roll out. I think that may be why Madison is coming in.
Also, the regulatory filings are what NOS submitted to the FDA and all material facts about trial data has already been revealed to the public.
no. There is no material info in there that would otherwise change expectations of an approval. I highly doubt that FDA correspondence says "we guarantee this will be approved." But as part of the DD in a buyout process the acquiring company signs a non-disclosure agreement in order to review everything material to the buyout - pending FDA actions, financials, etc. Management has already summarized all of the filings and correspondence to the public - they are confident it will be approved, etc. They are not required to reveal all of thee docs to the public just because there is a party conducting confidential DD.
I would expect that the NPS board has already approved this, as has the Shire board. The only way I can see a suit dragging this out is if a major (i.e. significant) holder of shares got enough pledges from other significant institutional holders to block the sale through a suit.
all shares will be tendered at $46, including all the ones that longs bought from the shorts when the shorts borrowed them to sell. So shorts will be able to cover at $46.
hmm good point. If you divide 5200 by 46 you get 113M - so the difference between 107M and that could be options that vest and exercisable warrants in the event of a transfer of ownership.
this lawsuit is frivolous. One of the main reasons to hire an investment bank to conduct an auction is precisely to avoid lawsuits that can stick. The only reason they are suing is to see if NPSP did indeed get a higher offer (or rthere is proof they could have gotten one) but that NPSP chose to go with Shire anyway (better fit, etc).
They can all cover at $46. Some may sneak in a cover before pre-market at slightly lower, but the vast majority will be at $46. there's no squeeze beyond that - all shares are being bought at $46 so that's a ceiling. A squeeze only happens when an acquisition is being discussed but no buyout price has been announced and people think the price could go much higher. The PPS was bid up considerably already since the takeover rumors started up again. I came back late at $38.
The Financial Times (which I think is the most reliable source since Shire is a British company) quotes Flemming Ornskov, Shire chief executive: “Based on what we saw in the regulatory filings and with the correspondence with the FDA [about Natpara], we feel confident that it is a risk worth taking. What was absolutely key for us was to get in as early as possible.” So that suggests there are no approval contingencies in this deal. But I also don't think another buyer will emerge; that was the whole point of the M&A auction process conducted by GS and Lerrink - to get the best bid. My take is that NPSP knew they could get $50+ post approval, but they are concerned about whether they will get a clean-slate approval and possibly be required to do another trial, which would send the price down $15. Shire may also have been willing to bid higher post approval - they were conservative to get a better price pre-approval. all in all I think the two parties did the best deal RIGHT NOW. So I'm happy.
Folks, a clean-slate approval of Natpara is not at all definite!!! There could be black box restrictions or a requirement for testing different dosages and frequency of dosing - these all came up in the adcom meeting! I'll take the $46.
I hope this lawsuit stays as nothing but noise. The $46 gets the buyout done before FDA decision, which could go either way. I reported here the blow by blow on that advisory meeting and both the FDA and the docs had major issues with approval. The last thing I want to see is a one year delay on Natpara. Take the $46 and be done!