#$%$? Are they nuts? OK geniuses in the finance group, you can't sit around a whiteboard and say, "LET'S MONETIZE THESE PEOPLE WITH VIDEOS EVERYWHERE!" TRUST ME, WE WILL LEAVE.
So, for anyone who cares to hazard a guess, what company do you think will acquire Intermune, and in what month? What price? Or, alternatively, do you think they will not be acquired and will instead go it alone?
Actelion, Sanofi, Roche, Gilead, AstraZeneca, Glaxo, Novartis? Any others?
I say Gilead, June. $66 a share, or about 6.5 billion.
I don't think it's a "constant churn" either. In fact - I have no idea what kind of "churn" it is. All I know is that the phase 3 trials were for 24 weeks, and the drug essentially didn't work for 4 out of 10 people. Now, whether the physicians of those 4 out of 10 decide that the drug doesn't work after 12 weeks, 24 weeks, or 52 weeks, eventually, they are probably going to tell their patients - "this isn't working for you." Remember, this is a $300,000/yr drug, so healthcare systems are not going to keep patients on this drug unless it shows a tangible benefit. So, my point is that the scripts have to be written 40% faster than the dropout rate (after the first 24 weeks since first patient is on the drug, which we are now past) in order for the absolute rate of patient use grows by 50 patients per month. I initially thought this would be a billion dollar drug with about 3500 patients on it, but now I'm thinking it's a $300-400 million drug at peak.
wow I got two things wrong in my post! I meant Natpara, not Januvia. Too many drugs, not enough time! Thanks for pointing that out.
sorry, in my statement above I meant that 4 out of 10 saw no reduction in parenteral infusions, not 6 out of 10. The drug WORKED for 6 out of 10.
I'm still not expecting much on this quarter. Remember, this was the last quarter with any old inventory. Next quarter = 100% new company. I think we'll see some meaningful change in the fall. Anything earlier will be a jolt to the upside. Unfortunately expectations are built in that "this is the quarter to watch." It isn't.
well, I agree that the competition is overwhelming in every respect. The only reason I'm holding is because the bar is so low for getting this going. It's all about merchandizing, price points, and getting some buzz going. The team is capable of doing that. I'm treating this like a complete startup, not a turnaround. Sometimes I wonder if they would have better off doing a complete start up, to get rid of the negative stigma of the name from the past.
I had posted that I was concerned about the revenues last quarter, going from 15 mill to 17.8 mill. I think the reason is churn. We are now at the stage when patients are dropping out of Gattex use due to inefficacy. Remember, 6 out of 10 patients in phase 3 saw no reduction in parenteral infusions or IV. So if they are adding net 50 new patients per month, they need to grow their scripts base at a rate that's 40% faster than the dropout rate, which they didn't do (yet), which would explain why revenues didn't jump another 5-6 mill but instead went up less than 3 mill. So I've turned more neutral on the stock until I see they can ramp faster than this. Europe will obviously help, but that will take months to gain traction there. Januvia will surely be huge. I think I may get back in before the PDUFA date on that.
Does anyone on this board have teen girls? My research shows Charlotte Russe, Hollister, Forever21, Abercrombie, American Eagle, H&M, Old Navy, Rue 21, Macy's, and perhaps Wet Seal and Hot Topic are the big competitors. Hollister is owned by Abercrombie, and they are changing the business model to be more "fast fashion" - lower price points, faster turnaround to address lightning fast trend changes. That sounds like Delia today. Hollister has 11 million likes on facebook compareed to Delia's 700k+, 669K twitter followers compared to 8K on Delia. Delia has a long way to go to capture the teen buzz in fashion. I'm, still long and a believer, as the leverage points to turn this around are very much in reach with the right fashion and price points
did you happen to notice if Delia's seemed busier than the other stores catering to teens, or was the whole mall packed?
They said on the Sunday call that there would be a lot more information shared on Tuesday. I think that means more upside. It sure as heck better not mean downside!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
would you please stop spamming all of the boards with MSTX? You might get paid to post, but we don't get paid to read. Also, I can assure you I'm less interested in buying MSTX now than before you showed up.
I thought the results would be responsible for a couple bucks today. The fact that we are up $5 and climbing suggests a whole lot of covering, IMHO.
In their phase 3 trial, Boehringer Ingelheim compated nintedanib in combination with docetaxel versus docetaxel alone. The Adverse events were outlined as such: "The most common adverse events (AEs) of any grade in the nintedanib combination and docetaxel alone groups were diarrhea (42.3 vs. 21.8 percent, respectively) and ALT elevations (28.5 vs. 8.4 percent, respectively).1 Incidence of grade 3 AEs was 71.3 percent in patients treated with nintedanib plus docetaxel compared to 64.3 percent with docetaxel alone.1 A higher incidence of grade 3 diarrhea and elevated ALT were observed in patients treated with nintedanib plus docetaxel compared to docetaxel alone ( grade 3 diarrhea: 6.6 vs. 2.6 percent; elevated ALT: 7.8 vs. 0.9 percent).1 Incidence of grade 3 hypertension, bleeding and thrombosis were similar in both treatment arms.1."
So in a different setting but still another data point on nintedanib, the drug doubled the diarrhea numbers and more than tripled the ALT elevations. Now, obviously some of that may be due to the synergistic effect of docetaxel with nintedanib, but clearly this drug has nastier side effects than perfenidone. I also think, given the incidence of myocardial infarction with nintedanib, that even with FDA approval they may require a black box warning on the possible AE's, which will restrict its use. The prevalence of pulmonary hypertention in IPF patients is said to be between a third and a half, and given the added cardiological risk of nintedanib, it is likely that JP Morgan's assessment of a 70/30 split in scripts between perfenidone and
nintedanib, respectively, may be conservative.
I'm less concerned about their pipeline, as perfenidone should be worth 6 billion on its own.
whogo70, That's kinda what I am thinking. Based on the results this clearly deserves to go higher. I can tell you this, as someone who is holding nearly $100K in shares, I am HUGELY relieved by today's events. They put my anxiety to bed. Now we'll see how long it takes to be bought out. I surmised back in March or April when they did their secondary that it could happen as soon as June.
This is one of the best stats in the trial: the results demonstrated that 22.7% of patients in the pirfenidone group experienced no decline in FVC, compared with 9.7% in the placebo group, representing a 132.5% increase in the proportion of patients who experienced no decline in FVC between Baseline and Week 52.