It seems to me that Baird is often sympathetic to the short side of a trade, but also, BAIRD LOVES GILEAD! (Google Gilead and Baird). Downgrading ACHN helps Gilead get a better price. No, I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but I'm just sayin'...
exactamente. (I have no idea why I just turned Italian. Oh, wait, my name is Italian!) I agree with everything you are saying. Months ago I was trying to get across the notion that it doesn't matter if the price for a cure is $20,000 by the time ACHN's drugs are on the market - they will still generate a minimum of $2 billion a year, which still makes ACHN a bargain at a $3.5-$5 billion price tag RIGHT NOW!
I hate to say it binary, but this will never see $195. Never, ever, ever.
(That's because long before that PPs occurs, this thing will get bought out by one of four HepC players, so that they can realize that value! :-))
I have not sold (well, I sold all my shares today and bought them back same day). I believe we took a hit today for four reasons, not necessarily in this order: 1) Baird Downgrade, 2) Express Scripts putting fear into the HCV category that there will be a price war which will significantly degrade the values placed on HCV drugs, 3) Negative press on 3422 (Feuerstein, Baird, a couple of others), and 4) The biotech index (NBI) was down 150 points or 5% today. Number 2 and 4 are the most important two items, in my view. I'm not selling my shares if UI can help it. 30% of this company is owned by RA Capital, FMR, Vanguard, Capital world, Goldman Sachs, and Janus, in that order. Not bad company to keep!
no they reached 4.2log10 in 10 days, I'm pretty sure. 3.6 at 7 days, 4.2 at 10 days, 4.8 at 14 days. A very different but equally effective curve of viral suppression than sovaldi and any other nuc out there.
the biotech market is full of day trader shorts right now, and they should cover at EOD.
and the "dosing issue" is only an issue if there were safety concerns. The POC tr4ial proved that 3422 has different PK and PD's because of a different mechanism of action.
(I was referring to teknowiz's initial post, not to George's (I wish Yahoo would straighten out how messages appear!) There is way too much competition for regulators to give a damn about GILD plus ACHN, IMHO.;
you're right rebel, that's too strange a tweet to ignore. And you called it about ACHN's increased attractiveness for GILD with this price war with ABBV. We could very well see a bidding war between BMY and GILD.
no apokerace, aka direction2trade, it's not game over. First, Gileadf has a history of acquiring drugs from other companies, including sofosbuvir, from Pharmacett. Most people who have studied this space knew there was going to be a price war (a cure is a cure - it's a question of how much you're willing to pay for it). the only differentiating factor for insurance companies besides price will be compliance and relapse. If Gilead can achieve a 1-pill, 100% cure at 6 weeks, right now, then it's game over for the 12 week regimens, although I still think there is 10 years of revenue streams for ABBV, Merck, and ACHN. Remember, as the price falls, more people get approved for the drug, so volume may make up 80% of the price decreases. Gild is in it to win it, and ACHN is their winning hand. No one else has a nuc as effective as sofo to match 3102 with! (But, if ACHN is bought out, I predict with a combo test of 3102+2422+sovaprevir, Gilead will have a 4 week cure on their hands.
If there's going to be a price war, then Gilead is going to want to be armed with a 6 week regimen and 1-3 pills. That will warrant a premium over a 12 week ABBV regimen (even though ABBV is going to make more than anyone thought they would on this), with a price at around $40-60K. Gilead could almost immediately put sofosbuvir and 3102 into a quick 2/3 trial while concurrently enrolling for a confirmatory phase 3 trial, for approval late 2015. The FDA may even allow them to go directly into a phase three, given the two trials on sofo that ACHN just did. Then, GILD can test 3422+3102+sovaprevir in other genotypes and take 1-2 years to see if there's a better mousetrap there. Granted, the price tag in this scenario just went down, but it's higher than where things are now, for sure! I just think there is no way that Gilead wants to get into a #$%$ match with ABBV on dueling 12 week regimens, when Gilead knows today that they can have a 6 week regiment with 3102. That's worth pulling the trigger and buying this company right now!
well, we know that sofosbuvir with a mediocre NS5A gets mediocre results (68% SVR4 at 6 weeks), and when it teams up with a superstar NS5A (3102) it gets 100% at 6 weeks. So does that tell you ity's all sofosbuvir doing the work? I don't think so.
I don't know, if GILD bought today they would immediately start a large phase 2/3 trial with sovosbuvir+3102, and sofo+3102+sovaprevir, and a phase 2 with 3102+3422. They could put $200 mill behind these trials right now. worst case, they get a 6 week out of the deal with 3102, and best case, they get 4 week. They don't have either right now. Sofo plus Ledispavir achieved only 68% knockdown!