robwal, with a strong phase 2 at 4 or even 6 week 95%+ SVR12, this gets breakthrough therapy and is approved in 8 months with no phase 3. A large company can get trials going ASAP and get this approved by third quarter 2016, and formularies won't take 2 years at all.
well, I believe cardiology is one of the toughest areas to make progress in. SERCA2 may have been the wrong target according to some. I'm still holding BLUE and AAVL,. for BLUE, it wasn't a matter of degree, and it wasn't a matter of fancy statistics to normalize baseline differences. 7 out of 7 stopped transfusions. That's a pretty clear outcome. And I suspect the same outcome will happen with SCD. I'm re-evaluating AAVL to see if I still believe my original convictions, but so far have not sold.
No bergy, I had $90k in CLDN. Then I sold it all and bought options. So I lost $13k on that trade. You and Mac with your disparaging preying comments are like meth addicts on a dark night looking for a fix in an alley. And CLDN has nothing to do with the wisdom of an ACHN trade. Care to discuss any of your trades in public, you hot shots?
Yup bergy, I hope you were short CLDN. Us longs just got wiped off the playing field on that one!
Just had my options in CLDN wiped out. This is an official solicitation for sympathy. Sorry too to magnam and Igonber, also holding!
No macugen, uneducated is ignorante in Italian; pazzo means crazy. The market is also ignorante Mac, that's why, after the market finished reviewing all of this wonderful new data on HCV from four companies, ACHN Is up 24 cents as I write this.
Ok, fine. 10k if you want. That's still a billion in revs for ACHN. That makes ACHN a $4-5 billion buyout. And if 3422+3102+sov is SOC, then that revenue is sustainable. However, I don't think cures will go that low.
oh, and macugen, bergy, and sidelurker, et al, don't bother to respond. I know I'm delusional. Save your typing for a newbie.
I researched concurrent events in HF and hospitalizations, and applied what I learned to this placebo group and the mydicar group (n=125, 186 events before results, multiple events per patient count toward 186). Result: came very close to the 45% improvement, of course not knowing this patient population. It will be tight I think, but I feel confident CLDN will triumph on the endpoints. If this drug does get over the 45% threshold, it's 8 months away from approval (two months to file, 6 months to approval as a breakthrough therapy), no phase 3 required, and CLDN is off to the races. CLDN could conceivably be a $100-$150 stock. Or $3. I love it and I hate it.
Merck can now cure 95%, and may extend to other genotypes over Harvoni, at 12 weeks. Whoopie. Olysio achieved 99% with Sofosbuvir at 12 weeks. Whoopie, Olysio is done and gone. Harvoni just achieved 93% on whatever at 6 weeks. Nothing to write home about. ABBVie just had some results at 99% at 12 weeks. Great. Just like everyone else. NO ONE HAS MASTERED 4-6 WEEK CURES AT OR NEAR 100%. The price wars begin. When ACHN is on the scene, a cure will be $25-30K. And ACHN will dominate that market. $2-3 billion a year for ACHN drugs @100,000 patients X $25K. Not very long before one or more companies pull the buy trigger.