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Novadaq Technologies Inc. Message Board

farfignugen21 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 9, 2015 2:03 PM Member since: Oct 24, 2012
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  • Reply to

    current weakness

    by vonpezel Jan 7, 2015 11:26 AM
    farfignugen21 farfignugen21 Jan 9, 2015 2:03 PM Flag

    Recent behavior is def frustrating/disturbing. Not a huge student of technicals, but after yrs above the 200-day MA - that bubble finally burst in Spring 2014 for the 1st time and the stock broke from $17 down to $10.50. Since that break in April '14 NVDQ has struggled to pop its head above the 200-day MA (only once for a few weeks in Dec '14 into the New Year). Even with the SPY/Lifecell win and addl rev as well as the Lifenet DermACELL JV seeling tissue into SPY mkts, seems to be a real 'show me/skeptical attitude' now about the story. Just have to be patient I guess about seeing what the mkt believes 45-55% y/y top-line is worth.

  • farfignugen21 farfignugen21 Oct 30, 2014 7:18 PM Flag

    This is a big win for the co. Nobody expected them to resolve this issue so quickly and on very reasonable terms. They will now add about $14m maybe $15m in sales to the P&L next yr. After all the hand-wringing and naysaying...the co looks likes its on a glide path to do somewhere between $80-85m in sales in 2015. Current Street estimate for 2015? A: $70-71m.

  • farfignugen21 by farfignugen21 Oct 21, 2014 5:24 PM Flag

    Anncmnt after close - did not garner much attention. But Arun is doing a nice job expanding the co's reach these past 2 weeks w/ formal distribution deals in India and now Japan. This will begin to matter in a material way 2H15, 2016-2017.

  • Reply to

    Weakness

    by farfignugen21 Oct 16, 2014 4:24 PM
    farfignugen21 farfignugen21 Oct 17, 2014 10:58 AM Flag

    Whatever this is - its pretty determined selling w/out much regard to price - and it seems to amplify in the post 3pm window (shorts?). Not fun to see it continue into a strong tape. Short thesis at $10.50? - it used to be valuation which I couldn't really argue with - now that has been excised as point of vulnerability as we near 5.-5.5x EV/'15 sales - and by all accounts - the co is likely to deliver on 40% sales growth in 2015. I may be biased - but seems like lunacy at $10.50 to be short into earnings/analyst day when very high prob mgmt. simply reiterates guidance and optimism for 2015.

  • farfignugen21 by farfignugen21 Oct 16, 2014 4:24 PM Flag

    Anyone? Anyone? ....Bueller?

  • Reply to

    Serena Group

    by andersongordon Sep 30, 2014 9:35 AM
    farfignugen21 farfignugen21 Sep 30, 2014 4:03 PM Flag

    William Blair claims Serena has 30 sites. Plan is to purchase one or more for all 30 centers over time (they already had 2 units). Commitment is said to be in form of "capital sales." Hopefully this will be a catalyst for the 2 larger natl players with 100+ sites each.

  • Reply to

    Serena Group

    by andersongordon Sep 30, 2014 9:35 AM
    farfignugen21 farfignugen21 Sep 30, 2014 2:17 PM Flag

    Agreed that it seems a bit thin on the kind of info the co has to know we all are curious about. I thought Healogics was the big kahuna nationally in terms of # of wound care centers that we have been waiting on - but like also to believe that Luna shipments are not going to be dominated by beta-test units and heavily-discounted OEM deals. There's no significance to this coming on the last day of the quarter, right?

  • Reply to

    Taiwan SPY License granted?

    by buzzybob Aug 19, 2014 12:52 PM
    farfignugen21 farfignugen21 Aug 26, 2014 4:57 PM Flag

    Agree with Buzzybob. They needed reg approval - not a dist partner - they made that choice already. Huge fan of Arun and what they are trying to build - but the bottom line: y/y rev trends down for 2-3 quarters in a row, run-rate has fallen below CEO's promised 40%+ y/y target, analysts have had to tweak ests lower. Thus, no surprise - a 15-20x NTM revenue co now becomes a 9-10x NTM story again. If they want to load the bandwagon again with new buyers - they have to prove they can put up +40-50% y/y #s through Luna/PP direct sales and intl sales.

  • Reply to

    looking ahead

    by e11ndofwar Jul 9, 2014 8:42 AM
    farfignugen21 farfignugen21 Jul 10, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    If you believe (as I do - and the mgmt of the co do) that the installed based by 2018 could be 4k+ devices - involved in an annual procedure count in the mid-six figures (Luna and Pinpoint usage are skewing higher already vs SPY), at 65-70%+ GM%, there is every reason to be patient, and not sweat the near-term results or stock gyrations too much - other than to feel they are directionally on the right path as far as education/utilization/ placements. My guess is the Lifecell JV once folded in, will add $15-18m overnight to the annual P&L. And people need to keep in mind - Asian sales in Japan and China - through partners - have not even begun yet (regulatory approvals coming).

  • Reply to

    Does everyone forgot about Extenet study?

    by frankiizhu Jun 19, 2014 8:32 AM
    farfignugen21 farfignugen21 Jun 27, 2014 3:25 PM Flag

    When is the release expected? Has mgmt indicated w/ an specificity? Thx

  • Reply to

    I told you all

    by uvainvestor82 Jun 10, 2014 3:05 PM
    farfignugen21 farfignugen21 Jun 10, 2014 10:34 PM Flag

    Have you ever been in conversation with a child, where the retort or reply to every exchange is: "But why?" or "I know you are but what am I?" The 'don't feed the monkeys at the zoo' maxim was coined for guys like this. Pointless and only spawns more drivel. The stock price will excommunicate him soon enough. Then when its hit $8.50-9.00 he can reenter w/ new alias and start parroting the same b.s.all over again w/ no accountability for having gotten it wrong.

  • Reply to

    nothing in sight;

    by henry_jimbob May 22, 2014 11:55 AM
    farfignugen21 farfignugen21 May 28, 2014 9:16 PM Flag

    Agree with these comments. Aside from just profit taking, look at the 1Q14 13F filings: 8-9m shares in new instl/hedge fund shareholders there who bought in 1Q14 or at least appear to have done so. Marsico, Waddell, New Century, Visium, Janus etc etc - 1Q14 began at $16.30 p/s and ended b/w $22-23, so by definition you have a lot of newbies who bought right into the buzz saw of the post-Sages/post 1Q14 selloff - combined with those who bought the $16 deal last yr also underwater. And then as Endo points out, the 1st Q call raised a lot of ?s about the Lifecell JV, slower Firefly placements, the initial sales ramp for Luna/Pinpoint (which by all accounts is going great YTD). 2Q results are the next big datapoint which seems like a long wait - but I for one am not convinced the fundamental story has changed at all, just mkt sentiment about what it should be worth today. If they manage to buy Lifecell out of the last 12 mos of that JV for a reasonable price - then consolidate another $18-19m in revenue from than JV on the P&L, and control SPY distribution, that would be a nice positive as well.

NVDQ
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