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Novadaq Technologies Inc. Message Board

farfignugen21 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 10, 2014 4:23 PM Member since: Oct 24, 2012
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  • Reply to

    looking ahead

    by e11ndofwar Jul 9, 2014 8:42 AM
    farfignugen21 farfignugen21 Jul 10, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    If you believe (as I do - and the mgmt of the co do) that the installed based by 2018 could be 4k+ devices - involved in an annual procedure count in the mid-six figures (Luna and Pinpoint usage are skewing higher already vs SPY), at 65-70%+ GM%, there is every reason to be patient, and not sweat the near-term results or stock gyrations too much - other than to feel they are directionally on the right path as far as education/utilization/ placements. My guess is the Lifecell JV once folded in, will add $15-18m overnight to the annual P&L. And people need to keep in mind - Asian sales in Japan and China - through partners - have not even begun yet (regulatory approvals coming).

  • Reply to

    Does everyone forgot about Extenet study?

    by frankiizhu Jun 19, 2014 8:32 AM
    farfignugen21 farfignugen21 Jun 27, 2014 3:25 PM Flag

    When is the release expected? Has mgmt indicated w/ an specificity? Thx

  • Reply to

    I told you all

    by uvainvestor82 Jun 10, 2014 3:05 PM
    farfignugen21 farfignugen21 Jun 10, 2014 10:34 PM Flag

    Have you ever been in conversation with a child, where the retort or reply to every exchange is: "But why?" or "I know you are but what am I?" The 'don't feed the monkeys at the zoo' maxim was coined for guys like this. Pointless and only spawns more drivel. The stock price will excommunicate him soon enough. Then when its hit $8.50-9.00 he can reenter w/ new alias and start parroting the same b.s.all over again w/ no accountability for having gotten it wrong.

  • Reply to

    nothing in sight;

    by henry_jimbob May 22, 2014 11:55 AM
    farfignugen21 farfignugen21 May 28, 2014 9:16 PM Flag

    Agree with these comments. Aside from just profit taking, look at the 1Q14 13F filings: 8-9m shares in new instl/hedge fund shareholders there who bought in 1Q14 or at least appear to have done so. Marsico, Waddell, New Century, Visium, Janus etc etc - 1Q14 began at $16.30 p/s and ended b/w $22-23, so by definition you have a lot of newbies who bought right into the buzz saw of the post-Sages/post 1Q14 selloff - combined with those who bought the $16 deal last yr also underwater. And then as Endo points out, the 1st Q call raised a lot of ?s about the Lifecell JV, slower Firefly placements, the initial sales ramp for Luna/Pinpoint (which by all accounts is going great YTD). 2Q results are the next big datapoint which seems like a long wait - but I for one am not convinced the fundamental story has changed at all, just mkt sentiment about what it should be worth today. If they manage to buy Lifecell out of the last 12 mos of that JV for a reasonable price - then consolidate another $18-19m in revenue from than JV on the P&L, and control SPY distribution, that would be a nice positive as well.

  • Reply to

    Just a thought

    by e11ndofwar Dec 19, 2013 10:38 AM
    farfignugen21 farfignugen21 Dec 23, 2013 3:30 PM Flag

    Agreed, looking forward to results from that study as well as 9 other studies underway - esp in endometriosis. For now, seems like we are stuck in a period of consolidating gains of last few mos, digesting the after effects of recent equity sold at $16.75, and straddling the 50-day MA - w/ no correlation with broad mkt or convincing volumes. But here's to a strong '14 and hopefully some color on taking back the other 50% of the Lifecell JV - which expires in 18 mos.

  • farfignugen21 farfignugen21 Dec 17, 2013 1:53 PM Flag

    So, are you suggesting we don't know if the co's tissue sampling contains a bias in it? Sounds like you are arguing that if the tissue sampling itself was not randomized, and proved as such, the FDA will not accept it? Is the fact that irinotecan has been used for yrs and yrs not a factor in worrying somewhat less about the cardiotox issue you raise re: Iclusig? It is not exactly an unknown agent - just as paclitaxel was not. I am not wearing rose-colored glasses here, merely trying to handicap odds like everyone else - fully aware how unpredictable this area can be, however, the sample collection issue should be something the co could/should disclose if asked.

  • farfignugen21 farfignugen21 Dec 16, 2013 5:45 PM Flag

    Think you already know the answer to this question. Abraxane posted +1.8 mos of PFS improvement over control - in a 1L trial in PC (less sick) - AND this was in combination with Gemzar. Abraxane is considered a 'shoe-in' for approval and to be standard of care in front line treatment for PC now. So for 398 anything that's +1.5 mos in monotherapy and +3.0 mos in combo - or better - in a sicker can do the math. None of that is to say there isn't still risk.

  • Reply to

    What is going on here???

    by foolfinder45 Dec 4, 2013 1:03 PM
    farfignugen21 farfignugen21 Dec 6, 2013 3:08 PM Flag

    Claiming that this administration's "policies" (Obamacare, regulatory overreach/fines, publicly vilifying the private sector, advocating wealth redistribution instead of growth overall, and now a 2.5% tax on NVDQ's device sales) have led to the recovery is like the rooster who cockadoodles in the morning and then takes credit for making the sun rise. Yes, the debt problem is b/c of the GOP protecting tax cheats! So simple. If you don't like political stuff creeping in, than don't perpetuate it with a political rant.

  • Reply to

    mensa,,,you said

    by italianstudfruitcake Dec 5, 2013 2:56 PM
    farfignugen21 farfignugen21 Dec 5, 2013 5:46 PM Flag

    If we are talking about the next 18 mos, yes, seems silly. On a much long-term basis - 5-7+ yrs from now, no, $100, or a $15B+ valuation is not 'silly' I agree, when you consider that MM-121 could be a Herceptin-like product and 398 could be the beginning of a nano-liposomal delivery platform similar to Abraxane. Then there's MM-111, MM-151, MM-302 etc. For now, I will welcome $10+. :-) But yes, ONXX comparison is fair, as is heck, CLVS - a $1.6B mkt cap co just on P-1/2 results for a NSCLC drug.

  • Reply to

    mensa,,,you said

    by italianstudfruitcake Dec 5, 2013 2:56 PM
    farfignugen21 farfignugen21 Dec 5, 2013 5:25 PM Flag

    Agreed. This talk of $100+ is silly. That said, if the MM-398 trial reads out in April/May as +2.0 mos progression free survival (PFS) vs the control arm - it will be double digits ($10+) before you can sneeze. Why? Go back and look at CELG's purchase of Abraxis Bio for $2.9B 2 yrs ago - at that time Abraxane was approved for metastatic breast cancer only. CELG added $5B in mkt cap when Abraxane showed +1.8 mos in 1st line pancreatic in Jan 2013. This is 2nd line (sicker patients), if it works, the assumption will be it can work in 1st line setting as well. Risk? Yes, but its an easy leap to double digits if they have an approvable product for PC.

  • Reply to


    by e11ndofwar Oct 24, 2013 11:18 AM
    farfignugen21 farfignugen21 Oct 24, 2013 5:28 PM Flag

    Not much to add here other than to agree that Arun obviously has his sights set on something - either complimentary surgical imaging technology or IP/patents that perhaps run into the tens of millions or more. Funding a faster marketing launch - say 150 salespeople by YE 14, that does not require $185m. Also, the randomized clinical studies do not cost this much - and in many cases they don;t have to sponsor all of it. Perhaps they enter an intl JV where they want to retain a much larger slice of the economics, than what a small co would typically get as a margin dealing w/ Olympus, GE, Siemens, etc. It is frustrating - ISRG is a $400 stock 10yrs later partly b/c they never breached 40m shares. At some point NVDQ will grow only 13% y/y, we just negated that future yr with dilution. But I nitpick..

  • farfignugen21 farfignugen21 Sep 11, 2013 6:12 PM Flag

    Anders, that is nice rsch work at the hospital level. Wondering: have you attempted to do the same for LUNA - i.e. reaching out to wound care centers to get early reads on LUNA acceptance/interest/orders. My understanding is that a few wound care roll-ups control a huge chunk of this mkt nationally - with Healogics being among the largest. Still early days here...

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