Congratulations Dar. You deserve your success. Absolutely earned it.
You are an amazing asset to this board. Thanks for all that you do.
Best wishes for 2014 and beyond.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Google Bakken estimates and Goldman
.....Other firms ready to reap the Bakken benefits are refiner Northern Tier Energy LP NTI , oilfield-services firm Halliburton Co. HAL , and transportation and pipeline companies Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. CA:CP and Enbridge Inc. ENB .
Northern Tier’s price target was set at $30 a share, while Halliburton’s target was $63 a share. Enbridge and Canadian Pacific’s targets were 54 Canadian dollars and 144 Canadian dollars, respectively.
Article in WSJ. China is selling long duration treasuries, buying agency debt and shorter duration T bills.
Also, when the taper chatter started months ago, Fed talking heads indicated that they would initially cut back on bond purchases, leave MBS buying intact. I guess we will find out tomorrow.
The democratic nature of these boards provides every blowhard anonymity and a convenient soapbox. Just because you can post all day long on every topic does not mean you should. Try discretion, its a good thing. You have single handedly managed to pollute many of the otherwise perfectly good Yahoo message boards with your inane drivel and petty name calling. You have clearly demonstrated that you do not understand the basic tenets of investing and instead of using these boards to further your education, you chose to attack the more knowledgeable posters.
Do us all a favor. Put a cork in it. In every orifice.
Feel free to put me on ignore.
You need to do a bit more due diligence on NRF. The recent SA article is a good starting point to get a handle on how the company has transformed itself over the last 3 years. BV in this case may be an inappropriate metric. I would not recommend shorting the stock
Western Asset Management Capital Corp. (NYSE: WMC) is another hybrid mortgage REIT. Beside, investing in residential agency and non-agency MBS, the company also is invested in commercial mortgage-backed securities and other asset-backed securities. This wide variety of assets provides the company with enough diversification to survive the volatility in interest rates. Deutsche Bank has a $21.50 target, and the consensus is right at line at $21.50. Investors receive a gigantic 20.61% dividend.
The main reason for the bear raid on the mortgage REIT stocks was the fear of rising interest rates. While the bond market is an anticipatory device, the fact remains that the Fed has not even begun the tapering of the QE purchasing, let alone raise interest rates. Investors with capital dedicated to aggressive growth and income may be well served to nibble on these beaten down stocks. If they start to gain any traction, the short sellers will run for the hills.
This is it
This is what matters
The slavish cloning of others
How to reverse engineer
When you start by copying
What it should look like
You dive in
Who will object?
Will they be able to fight?
Does intellectual property matter?
If copying everything is not enough
How can we cheat more?
We don’t believe in innovation
Or risk taking
There are a thousand clones
For every original
We spend a lot of time
On anything we can duplicate
Until everything we imitate
Enhances our bottom line
We are mimics and replicators
Pretenders and falsifiers
We conceal our faking
You can rarely miss it
But you’ll always feel it
This is our plastic
And it means everything
Faithfully copied by Samseong Geurup everywhere
Finally got around to listening to the presentation. Your notes are spot on. I did not catch the last question - wish they had repeated each posed question before responding. Overall very positive. I got the impression that the projected CAD for 2013 does not reflect contributions from some of the investments they have made in Q1 and Q2 so it could be headed higher. The target distribution appears to be 80% of CAD.
Interesting how they think about the management fees as "free" money that is going straight to the bottom line. There is obviously a carrying cost for the broker-dealer network. Are these folks employees of NRF? What are they doing when they are not selling private REITs?
The one cautionary note is that their charter seems to be to go anywhere they see a deal. Two risks - overextending themselves and getting into areas where they do not have the domain expertise
Debt purchased at a discount in the last few years seems to be doing very well.
If the PS stays depressed relative to the underlying value, I fully expect them to take action to unlock the value. This management team seems to be on the ball and the interests are aligned with the common holders.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Sees a lot of weakening in the global economy. Has 50% of his bond fund in agency backed MBS as of April end. Predicts 10 year bonds yields will fall from current levels to 1.7% by the end of 2013. Lots of other interesting insights. Google to read the entire report
Agree. Many moons ago, I recommended - stop feeding the monkey. From the tenor of the early posts, you could tell that s/he is clearly using provocation to get attention. The best way to keep good MBs like this clean and on topic is to ignore pests like DM.
See slide 10 from the Barclays presentation on AGNCs website. AGNC has increased days to maturity of funding to nearly 6 months
Two senior Federal Reserve officials on Tuesday played down the chances that the U.S. central bank would signal a readiness to reduce its bond buying at its meeting next month, dampening speculation the Fed's ultra-easy monetary policy might end soon.
New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley and St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard, both of whom will vote at the June 18-19 meeting, made clear further economic progress was needed before they would support curtailing bond purchases.
"Inflation is pretty low in the U.S.," Bullard told reporters after delivering a lecture in Frankfurt. "I can't envision a good case to be made for tapering unless the inflation situation turns around and we are more confident than we are today that inflation is going to move back toward target," he said.
A core inflation gauge closely monitored by the Fed slowed to just 1.1 percent per annum in March, barely half the central bank's long-term 2.0 percent annual inflation goal. In addition, the U.S. jobless rate stood at a lofty 7.5 percent in April.
In addition to boosting stocks, the U.S. dollar softened and prices for U.S. government debt moved higher on Bullard's remarks, and were given a further lift by Dudley, a close ally of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke who said the central bank's asset purchases could go up as well as down...........................
(read the rest on Reuters)
Realized gains on Agency Securities sales totaled $18.5 million or $0.05 per Common share.
Total available for distribution supports 0.07 for the next quarter
The WSJ piece was written by Jon Hilsenrath. He is known as the Fed's media mouthpiece and known to be close with the Fed. He has telegraphed almost every move the Fed has made over the last several years. Difference this time is that AGNC has changed their leveraging strategy. They did it for the right reason - to juice the returns in the face of a shrinking spread. It helped them in Q4 2012, bit them in Q1 2013. Not sure they can effectively hedge against monthly fluctuating MBS prices in the dollar roll market. The upshot of it all is more volatility for both AGNC and MTGE (they invested quite a bit of their recent SPO proceeds in agency MBS using the same strategy). Kain's two presentations next week will hopefully shed some more light on the current situation at both these REITs.
Read the article in WSJ for those who have access. Fed is being non committal about timing or any other specifics which probably means more volatility ahead. Not a good time for TBA arrangements, IMHO