Your numbers are correct but March seems to me way too soon. Iranian oil is not on line yet, Saudis want to shut off North American oil shale/sands, and who can guess what Russia is up to behind the scenes. March seems too soon to me.
Folks were playing that same tune ten years ago. Yes, it's a real "golden" oldie! Your best chance to make anything here is a buyout. This $1 levitation act can only go on for so long. What happens to the share price when you are delisted?
P.T. Barnum said "Never give a sucker an even break." The big money is three steps ahead of you.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I think the div cut is inevitable. How could anyone be long COP at this point? Even it you like the long-term story? Strongly urge everyone to just step aside for awhile. You'll get a chance to buy it back when it's lower.
House of "cards" or house of "cans"? - Ha! Green Giant was definitely a positive move. I believe the new leadership wants to move the company beyond the "snack food" missteps. Another source of cash could be the sale of product lines that no longer fit. I hope to hear some news along that line later this year. For the record I am not holding BGS at the moment. It's just gotten too pricey for me but long term holders are probably a lot safer here than some other places in the current market.
Chris, you have hit on the same thing that's been worrying me! Going forward how has the oil price crash affected COP's book value? Are they being completely transparent when quoting reserve values? I remember there was quite a bit of controversy during the real estate bust about banks that were not valuing mortgages honestly. You may remember the "mark-to-market" dust up circa 2009.
And a further comment on book value; COP has already begun spinning off "non-essential" assets (why would the have any "non-essential" assets in the first place?) Soon, given that they are determined to keep paying the dividend, they are going to have to start cutting into muscle. Now suppose oil recovers, say, second half of 2017. Now they start marking those reserves back up but since they now have fewer reserves they will never be able to punch the book value back to where it was two years ago. Meaning: The share price can NEVER get back to it's previous highs. Hope I've not gotten too far off the track here.
Seems to have stalled out here and a punk market doesn't help. Leadership change needs a grace period to get things back on track. Cash flow should cover the dividend a while but for sure that CANNOT be a permanent solution.
Heard a talking head say oil hasn't seen these levels in twelve years. Twelve years ago COP was at $18. And that's before you figure in the PSX spinoff. Not sure what the yield was at that point but does it even matter? I can't understand how anyone can be long at this point. Oil patch is in for a painful year. I'd rather buy on the way up than on the way down. Sit in a nice, safe water utility for a few quarters if you want dividend income.
ARTNA, AWK, YORW all are hitting new highs through the end of the year. Lots of big money looking for a place to hide. For once I'm going to be smart and take a little profit.
Hope you are right. We are stuck here until grain prices start showing some life. Wish I'd understood that better when I filled out my position.
Why shouldn't China want to protect it's trade routes? And when was the last time China "attacked" anybody? Would it be wise militarily or economically for the U.S. to permanently deploy a Navy carrier squadron in the South China Sea? Agree that the U.S. has economic and trade agreement issues with them.
But will we be paid to wait? We are looking at a mighty troubling bottom line for FY 2016. You probably right under $40 but prospects of no dividend make me hesitate, I'd wait for oil price to start recovering it's dangerous to try to pick the bottom.