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Royale Energy Inc. Message Board

fastball.98mph 42 posts  |  Last Activity: 18 hours ago Member since: Dec 26, 2011
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  • Reply to

    MHR Predictions

    by jms54 Jul 27, 2014 7:04 AM
    fastball.98mph fastball.98mph 18 hours ago Flag

    dcf I apologize for the assumption. Generally, I try not to go in that direction, but "gotta protect company on the MB" GUY...He get's in the way of broader discussions that could help widen the range of knowledge on this MB, or at least make it more interesting. Sorry again for assuming you were that guy.

  • Reply to

    MHR Predictions

    by jms54 Jul 27, 2014 7:04 AM
    fastball.98mph fastball.98mph 21 hours ago Flag

    tommie, dcferg, or whatever you go by, What you call a "bash" post smarter people call information, and use it or dismiss it as they see fit. Being so sensitive to opposing views shows you have no confidence in your own judgement, And since you can't actually ever put up a real argument against the "basher", you are well armed with all your id's to use the thumb down bomb to discredit a post...I'm confident in my judgement of you that you might be too stupid to invest, much less participate like an adult on this MB.

  • Reply to

    MHR Predictions

    by jms54 Jul 27, 2014 7:04 AM
    fastball.98mph fastball.98mph Jul 27, 2014 11:23 AM Flag

    You may not care about #1, but I suspect that the market will, or is at least getting there. Assuming that there's significantly less net-back than in Q1 the market will be looking at a $2bil firm throwing off $20mil annualized. This is only a fourth of the annual interest on the bond debt. If the market begins to question the "everything is just around the corner" speech, (as some posters have) it could get ugly based on the financials.

  • The expenditures required to feed continuous DDD (Double Digit Depletions) takes a toll on free cash flow, strains the supply chain, and puts pressure on the margins. Having studied this company through the years the growth is strong, but it isn't always smooth. During lesser growth periods cash piles up, and the company buys back shares. In 2003-04 the company bought back something like 7 million shares over an 18/month period. That buyback probably adds $80/per share in market value on today's shares...a tremendous value for those who bought or held shares from then on.

  • fastball.98mph by fastball.98mph Jul 26, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    Looking back, this began, I think, with a single transaction back in 2012. Triad sold disposal tank business to GRH for total consideration of $9mil, of which only $2.2mil was cash, the rest was in GRH securities and notes. At the same time GRH received two contracts to haul and store MHR disposal water. The value of the contracts approached $10mil. If someone offers you $10mil in business and finances 78% (much of it equity) you take it almost every time. He may be able to utilize this into a big MLP...Anyone who was paying attention could have seen what was happening, and bought GRH just last year for under $1. I recall one poster (a Wall St veteran) who after he made money off the accounting bounce announced that he was selling most of MHR and going into GRH...Nice move, DM!

  • MHR is a $2bil or so enterprise while GRH is $100mil. Where would GRH be without MHR?...Seems "slippery" to me.

  • Reply to

    technical analysis

    by jms54 Jul 16, 2014 6:17 AM
    fastball.98mph fastball.98mph Jul 16, 2014 9:43 AM Flag

    Correct if im wrong but before Yahoo added thumbs up/down the level of on topic discussions has nose dived. I suppose a childish feature will bring on childish behavior...Several really good level headed posters have disappeared.

  • fastball.98mph fastball.98mph Jul 13, 2014 10:32 PM Flag

    Strange deal to say the least. The premium (a measly 5%) comes from the conversion factor that KOG holders will convert their shares to WLL. However, $13.90 is still below the $14.23 Friday close. I doubt that this is the type of buyout that would move MHR or any E&P of its size tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    Look at the preferreds!

    by jdberwanger Jul 9, 2014 6:20 PM
    fastball.98mph fastball.98mph Jul 9, 2014 9:46 PM Flag

    The bond markets response to the "too much debt?" question...The 2020 maturity trades at $111.25 yields 5.75% or 400 basis points below coupon. Taping a strong bond market to take out the C and D looks like a good way to clean up some complexity and lower the capital cost. At least in theory.

  • However, Royale still has 100% on over 40k/acres. Royale still has roughly 55k net acres to Rampart's cap of 37k. Also assuming big success Royale has a original $1.6mil equity option on Ramparts shares...The best way to play this is with Royale...CASE CLOSED!

  • "Could"...the entry cost was $100/acre and thanks to the JV the cost basis is 0. Let a big player lift the O&'s early mineral rights that make quick fortunes in this business.

  • The last one pictured a stalking Leopard. I think this one will be a hard charging Grizzly.

  • fastball.98mph by fastball.98mph Jul 5, 2014 1:35 PM Flag

    The option expired yet Royale is either at the table listening to Rampart make a pitch for better terms, or Royale is at the table negotiating a better package in order to squeeze another payment from this struggling entity? Either way Royale really ought to let it go and let Rampart pull together so it can use its resources on next years drilling and completion of that well...far more important!

  • Reply to

    Finding & Development Cost

    by jansonnl Jul 3, 2014 6:09 PM
    fastball.98mph fastball.98mph Jul 4, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    I think the graph is a product of timing. The bottom of the list has several companies that over 2011-13 that have sold significant producing properties, and used the cash on development of other plays. The result is a higher numerator over a flat denominator. At the top of the list are companies that have generally stayed put so their F&D is flat but production is growing...Strong names at the bottom. It wouldn't surprise me that a lot of those names on the bottom make it to the top on the 2016 list.

  • Reply to

    Bloomberg fails to provide complete story

    by themid2001 Jun 27, 2014 10:03 AM
    fastball.98mph fastball.98mph Jun 28, 2014 10:21 AM Flag

    Right off the bat the article says Magnum's ebitda trails the debt load by 70x. And then says the industry average is 4x. The article isolated MHR amongst the Exxons, and Chevrons of the industry, rather than peers closer to its size. Also don't expect Bloomberg to mention that MHR expenses exploration cost on the income statement in one period, while most of the peers do it on the balance sheet over time. This has a dramatic affect on the income statement...If MHR drills a $10mil well that $10mil is expensed and shown on the next reporting statement. If MHR were to account that same well under the full cost method the $10mil goes into a cost pool and is expensed through DD&A over several periods. The difference could literally drop a few million onto net income and show MHR being Halcon.

  • Reply to

    Share holder Value

    by sammc1960 Jun 22, 2014 11:05 AM
    fastball.98mph fastball.98mph Jun 22, 2014 3:42 PM Flag

    Not accusing anyone of whining, and I get the frustration of those who bought in April-ish of 2011. I just have a hard time knocking a stock that has returned 30% CAGR from the beginning. There may be a variety of reasons why the stock has stumbled since 2011. My opinion is the Baytex deal put too much leverage on the balance sheet and ultimately had to sell EF to avoid bankruptcy. I think when they sell Eureka, as he said they will early next year, and if its a cash deal, the market will respond with thunder. It makes sense because Eureka and take-away remains, operated by another, but MHR would have a boatload of cash plus capex diverted to D&C.

  • Reply to

    Share holder Value

    by sammc1960 Jun 22, 2014 11:05 AM
    fastball.98mph fastball.98mph Jun 22, 2014 11:55 AM Flag

    I just looked at a chart comparison between MHR and COG, and I didn't see COG in any time frame sky rocket over MHR...not in the past 6 months, not two year, and absolutely not the five year, where MHR has outperformed COG by 3x. Unless you like that 8/cent dividend that COG pay's I'm not sure what you're beef is?

  • Reply to

    Upward movement

    by deathblosom Jun 17, 2014 3:58 PM
    fastball.98mph fastball.98mph Jun 21, 2014 11:18 AM Flag

    The mark of a superb company might be a quit message board...Something is a little off, when a company that has declining volume growth (TAP) is priced exactly at the same EV/EBITDA as a company with growth and a lot more run-way, as is the case with SAM. The recent trajection of TAP has been fueled by investment banks upgrading the stock, which therefore give's TAP's executives currency for M&A...and which gives investment banks fee's that carry very high profit margins. Clearly SAM doesn't need M&A for growth and so we don't have the same relationship with Wall St. However, for proper valuation, either TAP needs to reverse a bit or SAM should be over $300...Just my opinion...Cheers, and have a great summer!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • fastball.98mph fastball.98mph Jun 21, 2014 10:02 AM Flag

    It's probably better to ask "Kip" Ferguson. This seems to be the project of Eagle Ford Hunter Pres, who doesn't have much to oversee since the EF sale. It's a way for Evan's to keep a trusted lieutenant on board, and thus far hasn't cost a dime in liquidity.

  • fastball.98mph fastball.98mph Jun 19, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    The executives are boosting their holdings. Selling 50k in the open market to fund an exercise of 200k.

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