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Linn Energy, LLC (LINE) Message Board

fastball.98mph 38 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 22, 2014 10:08 AM Member since: Dec 26, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Bloomberg fails to provide complete story

    by themid2001 Jun 27, 2014 10:03 AM
    fastball.98mph fastball.98mph Jun 28, 2014 10:21 AM Flag

    Right off the bat the article says Magnum's ebitda trails the debt load by 70x. And then says the industry average is 4x. The article isolated MHR amongst the Exxons, and Chevrons of the industry, rather than peers closer to its size. Also don't expect Bloomberg to mention that MHR expenses exploration cost on the income statement in one period, while most of the peers do it on the balance sheet over time. This has a dramatic affect on the income statement...If MHR drills a $10mil well that $10mil is expensed and shown on the next reporting statement. If MHR were to account that same well under the full cost method the $10mil goes into a cost pool and is expensed through DD&A over several periods. The difference could literally drop a few million onto net income and show MHR being profitable...like Halcon.

  • If we're to assume that this conventional target is a pool and give it a modest depth of 500ft, the oil in place would be roughly 166 million barrels. Even if just half of that is recoverable it would be a big find for a billion dollar E&P. Instead this would be shared by two entities with a combined enterprise value of $80mil. Essentially this would mean that between Royale and Rampart the finding cost of 166 million barrels is less than $0.50/per barrel...Wall St and other E&P's are bound to take a further look at this news release and if the chance becomes slightly greater than remote the two stocks would go absolutely parabolic.

  • fastball.98mph fastball.98mph Jun 19, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    The executives are boosting their holdings. Selling 50k in the open market to fund an exercise of 200k.

  • Reply to

    Once in a while small caps make history.

    by fastball.98mph May 24, 2014 10:08 AM
    fastball.98mph fastball.98mph May 24, 2014 11:32 AM Flag

    Just spent the last 40 seconds reading your post history. Just a bunch of quips and snarls from a little man who doesn't understand business, risk or the stock market...If you're not too lazy you ought to LEARN, or go snarl on a topic you understand better, and don't forget your purse!

  • fastball.98mph fastball.98mph May 28, 2014 9:15 AM Flag

    Not often that 12% dilution leads to a higher open. Nice to see CS confirm their $9 target. It's getting tough to value this stock.

  • fastball.98mph by fastball.98mph Jun 14, 2014 10:49 AM Flag

    Rampart can purchase 75% WI on the 17,000/acre central block for $1.7mil. If they do this will bring in a total of $5.1mil from the JV. The central block option along with Rampart drilling and completing two wells by April of next year would effectively give Royale an average acreage cost of MINUS $45/acre on the remaining 52,500 net acres. If the play does nothing going forward, Royale still will have done very well. If however, the play gets hot you can't beat a $50 million market cap that holds 52,500/acres at a cost of MINUS $45 per acre.

  • Reply to

    Share holder Value

    by sammc1960 Jun 22, 2014 11:05 AM
    fastball.98mph fastball.98mph Jun 22, 2014 11:55 AM Flag

    I just looked at a chart comparison between MHR and COG, and I didn't see COG in any time frame sky rocket over MHR...not in the past 6 months, not two year, and absolutely not the five year, where MHR has outperformed COG by 3x. Unless you like that 8/cent dividend that COG pay's I'm not sure what you're beef is?

  • Reply to

    Look at the preferreds!

    by jdberwanger Jul 9, 2014 6:20 PM
    fastball.98mph fastball.98mph Jul 9, 2014 9:46 PM Flag

    The bond markets response to the "too much debt?" question...The 2020 maturity trades at $111.25 yields 5.75% or 400 basis points below coupon. Taping a strong bond market to take out the C and D looks like a good way to clean up some complexity and lower the capital cost. At least in theory.

  • Bob Brackett - Sanford C. Bernstein
    Then what about Alaska sort of North Slope, is that somewhere you would look?
    Bill Thomas - Chairman, CEO
    Yes. I think probably not, I think operating cost in those kind of areas for a shale play might make those plays very difficult to be economic.

    Don't mistake this exchange entirely as a "bearish" one. First, if there's an E&P CEO handbook the 1st chapter would tell you NOT to show the public that you have interest in a play BEFORE acquiring leases, otherwise those leases skyrocket on you overnight. Secondly, the fact that Bob Brackett ( an excellent analyst who is very well connected with the lower 48 operators) is asking about north slope shale tells me tells me that it's beginning to get batted around out there, as the Bakken and EagleFord mature...

  • Reply to

    why Stephen Hosmer why?

    by rvcassociates Jun 2, 2014 9:55 AM
    fastball.98mph fastball.98mph Jun 4, 2014 9:45 AM Flag

    String, Selling 3500 shares against over 1.1mil is on one hand a non-issue. However on the other hand selling ANY shares after having gained a lot of attention is a stupid move, especially just $10k worth. Had he sucked it up and bought $10k worth I think the stock is holding up in the $3.20's...I think

  • Reply to

    Down Under Hunter?

    by fastball.98mph Jun 10, 2014 9:31 AM
    fastball.98mph fastball.98mph Jun 11, 2014 8:33 AM Flag

    He skewed the post so he could get the word myopia in. It was beyond a reach. He seems to be the typical judgmental type, where he is doing the same exact thing that he accuses another of doing. In this case it's being a short-term trader-not an investor...Wasn't he bashing Evan's and MHR a couple weeks ago?

  • fastball.98mph fastball.98mph Jun 21, 2014 10:02 AM Flag

    It's probably better to ask "Kip" Ferguson. This seems to be the project of Eagle Ford Hunter Pres, who doesn't have much to oversee since the EF sale. It's a way for Evan's to keep a trusted lieutenant on board, and thus far hasn't cost a dime in liquidity.

  • Reply to

    Central block option

    by fastball.98mph Jun 14, 2014 10:49 AM
    fastball.98mph fastball.98mph Jun 15, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    String, Other than from hearing on this board that Rampart's stock hasn't been moving, I have not followed Rampart of late. It could be that Rampart may opt not to exercise the central block. If that's the case Royale retains over 60k net, and still has a negative cost basis on the acreage position. The option values the central block at $100/acre. I would prefer that Rampart passes on it. If this acreage were to get half or a third(~$10K/acre) of the values that the some of the lower 48 plays have gotten in recent years, would put a value of $600mil or $40/per share. Laughable as it may seem this IMO is not too far from a possibility.

  • Reply to

    Upward movement

    by deathblosom Jun 17, 2014 3:58 PM
    fastball.98mph fastball.98mph Jun 21, 2014 11:18 AM Flag

    The mark of a superb company might be a quit message board...Something is a little off, when a company that has declining volume growth (TAP) is priced exactly at the same EV/EBITDA as a company with growth and a lot more run-way, as is the case with SAM. The recent trajection of TAP has been fueled by investment banks upgrading the stock, which therefore give's TAP's executives currency for M&A...and which gives investment banks fee's that carry very high profit margins. Clearly SAM doesn't need M&A for growth and so we don't have the same relationship with Wall St. However, for proper valuation, either TAP needs to reverse a bit or SAM should be over $300...Just my opinion...Cheers, and have a great summer!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    technical analysis

    by jms54 Jul 16, 2014 6:17 AM
    fastball.98mph fastball.98mph Jul 16, 2014 9:43 AM Flag

    Correct if im wrong but before Yahoo added thumbs up/down the level of on topic discussions has nose dived. I suppose a childish feature will bring on childish behavior...Several really good level headed posters have disappeared.

  • fastball.98mph by fastball.98mph Jun 10, 2014 9:31 AM Flag

    Is that going to be the name of these holdings?

  • fastball.98mph by fastball.98mph May 17, 2014 10:10 AM Flag

    The $600mil notes that mature in May of 2020 are trading just over $110 yielding 350 basis points below coupon. Tapping a very strong bond market for say $200mil to take out one of the preferred class's and shore up the cash position ought to be considered.

  • fastball.98mph by fastball.98mph May 3, 2014 11:40 AM Flag

    The average estimate is flat revenue ($98.5mil) and -$0.16 EPS Vs. -$0.06 a year ago. There's a lot of parts in between revenue and EPS but I think that with flat revenue analyst have learned to model the huge depletion cost that shale operators face. Through the lens of a banker shale operators on scale consistently look like lousy business's. However, the market will reward an operator that grows production and reserves with internal cash flow, as GPOR comes to mind.

  • Reply to

    No reason for the pullback....

    by ht0629 May 9, 2014 1:00 PM
    fastball.98mph fastball.98mph May 10, 2014 10:44 AM Flag

    I don't think it's out of the ordinary that market to adjusts for risk. Understand that the general market isn't as dialed in as to what's going on with the Farley or Stadler pads as you are. The easiest way for guys who manage funds is to focus on the financials. Here's a company that in Q1 had $38.9mil in EBITDAX, which is essentially a liquidation cash flow that the most senior lenders focus on. The $38.9 has a run rate of $155.6 which is less that 40% of the capex. How does this company fill a $245mil gap?... the fund manager wonders. And without any more DD he sells moves into T-bonds until he finds a replacement of which he has a universe to choose from...Simple as that, no conspiracy.

  • fastball.98mph by fastball.98mph May 17, 2014 11:20 AM Flag

    headline... "Royale improves Q1 performance by 38%"...when the headliner could have been...ROYALE INCREASES REVENUE BY 150%...The stock should have closed over $3 this week with major momentum heading into the seismic results...and they pay this guy $200k per year!

LINE
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