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Corrections Corporation of America Message Board

fatty_mcknuckles 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 4, 2014 12:29 PM Member since: Jan 8, 2003
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  • Reply to

    gotta start thinking about buying

    by jrkkek Apr 4, 2014 12:11 PM
    fatty_mcknuckles fatty_mcknuckles Apr 4, 2014 12:29 PM Flag

    Yep. Obviously, though, NPS could fall more - the sector as a whole is getting crushed. When that happens, even good companies get hit. Investors panic, funds need to meet redemptions so they sell anything that's liquid (or not, if they need to)

    What's weird about the past year is that lots of small biotech firms with no clinical results were puffed up to really high valuations. Now, everyone is going down. I think what happens at some point is that the really speculative companies like XON keep going down, while companies that are profitable (or about to be) bottom out. Have no idea when this point is.

    Probably safest to nibble a bit here and there whenever people start to panic. Good rule of thumb - when you get lots of people that have no clue about NPS' debt, their drugs, or what the company does, it's probably a good day to buy. Better rule - if you see execs start buying NPS on the open market, join them.

  • Reply to

    Good sensipar news

    by fatty_mcknuckles Mar 27, 2014 10:33 AM
    fatty_mcknuckles fatty_mcknuckles Mar 27, 2014 12:35 PM Flag

    Relevant bits from an AP story today:
    WASHINGTON (AP) — Congressional leaders agreed Wednesday on legislation to avert a threatened 24 percent cut in fees to doctors who treat Medicare patients, and said votes were likely in both houses before Monday's deadline.
    ........
    It also contains a provision benefiting, among others, Amgen Inc., which produces an oral drug for kidney dialysis patients. It would extend through 2024 a controversial provision to allow payments for Sensipar, which is made by Amgen, to be made on top of other "bundled" payments made to treat Medicare patients with kidney disease. It also eases cuts to dialysis providers who have battled with drug companies over the issue.

  • fatty_mcknuckles by fatty_mcknuckles Mar 27, 2014 10:33 AM Flag

    Looks like Congress isn't going to force price bundling for dialysis. In short, means price of sensipar (and therefore royalties to NPSP) won't take a hit, as some feared.

  • fatty_mcknuckles fatty_mcknuckles Mar 21, 2014 10:17 AM Flag

    All of biotech getting hit hard after congressmen question Gilead pricing HCV drug at around $100k. This is one of those tempest in a teapot controversies. But fact all the bio stocks are getting hit indicates generalist investors are getting antsy after the huge rise in biotech over the past year.

    Ride could be increasingly bumpy for the rest of the year! Still expect NPSP to end up sharply higher at end of year, but could we see $25 before then -maybe!

  • Reply to

    get out NOW

    by lars123 Mar 10, 2014 1:22 PM
    fatty_mcknuckles fatty_mcknuckles Mar 10, 2014 1:28 PM Flag

    Nothing has changed except stock price is lower. That's fine by me - didn't think I'd be lucky enough to buy this cheaply. Hoping it drops more, so I can buy more!

  • fatty_mcknuckles fatty_mcknuckles Mar 7, 2014 3:22 PM Flag

    There were a very large number of call options bought today - 1,700. One call option allows you to buy 100 shares of stock at a set point.

    If you run an institutional fund, it can be hard to buy big blocks of stock without moving the price. One way to do so is to buy options before you start buying stock. That way, if the stock starts going up, you are assured of at least getting 170,000 shares at $34 (assuming this was one buyer).

    Keep in mind, I was just guessing here. If the price of NPS stock stays below $34, the options will be worthless. Don't forget - for every buyer there is a seller. So someone is taking the opposite side of the bet, thinking NPS won't rise.

    We just don't know. But big purchases/sales of options can be a good indicator that something is up.

    PS - don't EVER play with options until you've been investing for a long time. Good way for the average investor to get fleeced.

  • fatty_mcknuckles fatty_mcknuckles Mar 7, 2014 2:07 PM Flag

    That is probably serious money moving in - over 1,700 34 calls bought today.

  • fatty_mcknuckles fatty_mcknuckles Mar 5, 2014 3:42 PM Flag

    Anyone who thinks GALE or DARA is a company to emulate hasn't been in biotech very long - or know what they are talking about.

    Second point - you don't think investors should wait four years to go from the current market cap of $3.4bn to $12.4bn. Um, ok - that's a 38% annualized return. I guess your day trading must be going well if you can't be bothered with that sort of return. Well, good for you. But why don't you come back in a few years and we can talk again.

  • Reply to

    What happend today?

    by aandsbookkeeping Feb 19, 2014 10:24 AM
    fatty_mcknuckles fatty_mcknuckles Feb 19, 2014 3:39 PM Flag

    This is a volatile stock - key is not to get too excited by either the ups or the downs.

    I'm not big on aphorisms, but Jesse Livermore was right in the 1920s when he said, "Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn."

    Of course, maybe I am wrong! Would love to hear some shorts explain why they think the company isn't worth its current market cap.

  • Reply to

    Why up 5% today? Vanguard SC 13G filing

    by stlchinese Feb 12, 2014 1:20 PM
    fatty_mcknuckles fatty_mcknuckles Feb 12, 2014 3:12 PM Flag

    Probably not. Vanguard owns more than 5% of a lot of companies, because it has so many funds and is so big.

    It's a very volatile stock, so it's impossible to say with any certainty why it moves up or down any particular day. If you think (like I do) that Gattex is a real drug, and Natpara is likely to be a blockbuster, then the stock is still really, really, cheap at these levels.

    I'm pretty much all in (13,000 shares and ton of long-dated calls) so keep in mind I may simply be biased.

  • fatty_mcknuckles fatty_mcknuckles Jan 24, 2014 1:02 PM Flag

    If stock goes green today, will you push thumbs down on your own post? Would that be baboon like?

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