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JAVELIN Mortgage Investment Corp. Message Board

fav_for_08 145 posts  |  Last Activity: 20 hours ago Member since: Jan 17, 2008
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  • fav_for_08 fav_for_08 20 hours ago Flag

    Thats not true, MORL's pps does come back look at the historical prices, the pps is more of a function of the laorge dividends bringing down the price on X-diviidend dates combined with all the mREITS adjusting for X-dates When the mREIT's in the portfolio build up equity MORL increases also

  • And its current intra-day NAV is $15.226

  • fav_for_08 fav_for_08 Aug 30, 2015 9:54 PM Flag

    Excellent analysis by Lance Brofman: the following paragraphs of Brofman's analysis is what long term investors are inherently aware of:

    "For the three months ending September 2015, the total projected dividends are $0.95. The annualized dividends would be $3.80. This is a 24.6% simple annualized yield with MORL priced at $15.44. On a monthly compounded basis, the effective annualized yield is 27.6%.

    Aside from the fact that with a yield close to 25%, even without reinvesting or compounding you get back your initial investment in only 4 years and still have your original investment shares intact, if someone thought that over the next five years interest rates would remain relatively stable, and thus, MORL would continue to yield 27.6% on a compounded basis, the return on a strategy of reinvesting all dividends would be enormous. An investment of $100,000 would be worth $338,083 in five years. More interestingly, for those investing for future income, the income from the initial $100,000 would increase from the $27,600 initial annual rate to $93,310 annually."

  • Reply to

    When to NOT own MORL

    by alf_1986e Aug 9, 2015 12:03 AM
    fav_for_08 fav_for_08 Aug 26, 2015 9:05 PM Flag

    Please accept my apology for the mistake

  • Reply to

    When to NOT own MORL

    by alf_1986e Aug 9, 2015 12:03 AM
    fav_for_08 fav_for_08 Aug 26, 2015 12:28 PM Flag

    stockdud.....you are a fool, when MORL's book value is currently $14.76 (intraday) and its yielding in excess 27% a $10 pps will never be seen.

  • Reply to

    When TO OWN MORL

    by fav_for_08 Aug 14, 2015 12:46 PM
    fav_for_08 fav_for_08 Aug 26, 2015 10:22 AM Flag

    Today all but two of the mREITs that MORL holds (NYMT and BXMT) are up an average of $0.82

  • Reply to

    Time to buy

    by gracieblackbelt.2012 Jul 27, 2015 9:29 AM
    fav_for_08 fav_for_08 Aug 24, 2015 12:39 PM Flag

    NLY is the largest REIT in MORL's portfolio with 12.8% of outstandings ,and AGNC holds second place at 9.67% portion: nonetheless, both AGNC and NLY have held up well in this turndown.

    I have no worry about MORL its fully diversified and yields more than enough to justify the risk

  • Reply to

    When TO OWN MORL

    by fav_for_08 Aug 14, 2015 12:46 PM
    fav_for_08 fav_for_08 Aug 24, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    Fed isn't going to raise rates in September and most likely not in December with this turmoil, now is the time to buy MORL at its current discount

  • Reply to

    Morl's primary problem when it comes to its pps

    by fav_for_08 Aug 14, 2015 10:11 AM
    fav_for_08 fav_for_08 Aug 21, 2015 12:50 PM Flag

    dollar cost averging is the smartest thing to do, when I bought during the last severe slump I averaged out to a profitable base. At these current prices anyone buying will ultimatley be in the green

  • Reply to

    When TO OWN MORL

    by fav_for_08 Aug 14, 2015 12:46 PM
    fav_for_08 fav_for_08 Aug 20, 2015 10:51 AM Flag

    Today MORL broke its 50 day moving average of $16.58, a major positive for its future price appreciation

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • fav_for_08 fav_for_08 Aug 19, 2015 12:49 PM Flag

    tack on the $12.69 to MORL's current pps a total of $29.09 if it continues to yield 25% or more that $30 high will be back in short order

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    my fed rate prediction

    by des645 Aug 9, 2015 11:39 PM
    fav_for_08 fav_for_08 Aug 19, 2015 10:52 AM Flag

    Look at the dividend histoy causing the drop in pps. Were supposed to listen to a guy that predicting a FF drop in interest rares? LoL !!!!

  • Reply to

    Morl's primary problem when it comes to its pps

    by fav_for_08 Aug 14, 2015 10:11 AM
    fav_for_08 fav_for_08 Aug 17, 2015 12:07 PM Flag

    The fees are relativley minimal. At this moment 22 of the 24 mREITS that MORL is composed of are currently up today. Four times a year their are large dividends which corresspond to the mREITS that pay dividends on a quarterly basis. When the 'big dividend" pay outs come which typically approach $1 it is difficult for MORL to recover its pps immediatly afterwood and consequently it takes close to a month or more to recapitilize it pps, e.g. chop off $1 from any $15 stock it takes a while for it to recover

  • Reply to

    When TO OWN MORL

    by fav_for_08 Aug 14, 2015 12:46 PM
    fav_for_08 fav_for_08 Aug 14, 2015 4:55 PM Flag

    read my earlier comment, MORL has a problem with doing "'too Well" its constant large monthly dividends are eroding its pps due to X-dividend days starting out trading minus diviends

  • fav_for_08 by fav_for_08 Aug 14, 2015 12:46 PM Flag

    Now is the time because it and all of its mREITS components are trading in excess or close to their 50 day moving average(s), MORL's 50 day moving average is $16.66

  • Reply to

    When to NOT own MORL

    by alf_1986e Aug 9, 2015 12:03 AM
    fav_for_08 fav_for_08 Aug 14, 2015 10:47 AM Flag

    long bond yields should go up and prices go dowm

  • MORL's primary problem is that it's Too Profitable it's huge yield gives way to sizable monthly dividends which deplete it's pps on x-dividend days which occur monthly

  • Reply to

    MORL's portfolio and respective yields

    by fav_for_08 Aug 12, 2015 9:48 PM
    fav_for_08 fav_for_08 Aug 13, 2015 9:45 PM Flag

    MORL's portfolio's Percentage of portfolio, yield of each mREIT and their Price/Book

    ..

    ..................Percentage .............Yield...............Price/Book
    NLY...........14.26%...................11.8%................0.83
    AGNC.........10.21%..................12.3%...............0.83
    STWD.........6.30%......................8.8%...............1.27
    TWO...........5.35%......................10.7%..............0.90
    NRZ.............5.25%....................12.3%..............1.27
    CIM..............5.23%....................13.6%...............0.84
    BXMT..........5.19%.....................7.1%.................1.10
    MFA.............4.55%....................10.9%................0.88
    CLNY...........4.36%......................6.8%................0.87
    HTS.............4.34%......................12.4%...............0.77
    IVR...............4.23%.....................13.0%...............0.71
    CYS............3.93%.......................14.5%...............0.81
    PMT.............3.68%......................15.4%...............0.79
    CMO............3.24%.......................11.5%..............0.88
    ARR.............3.16%........................17.6%.............0.62
    ARI...............3.07%........................10.4%.............0.95
    MTGE.........2.6%..........................12.7%...............0.76
    NYMT..........2.55%.......................16.3%................0.96
    RWT...........2,24%,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,7.6%.................1.00
    ANH............1.57%.......................11.80%...............0.85
    RSO............1.31%........................21.1%................0.46
    RAS.............1.25%.......................13.7%.................1.16
    DX...............1.17%.........................14.3%.................0.79
    NCT.............0.96%.........................10.1% ................0.92

  • Percentage...........Yield
    NLY...........14.26%...................11.8%
    AGNC.........10.21%..................12.3%
    STWD.........6.30%......................8.8%
    TWO...........5.35%......................10.7%
    NRZ.............5.25%....................12.3%
    CIM..............5.23%....................13.6%
    BXMT..........5.19%.....................7.1%
    MFA.............4.55%....................10.9%
    CLNY...........4.36%......................6.8%
    HTS.............4.34%......................12.4%
    IVR...............4.23%.....................13.0%
    CYS............3.93%.......................14.5%
    PMT.............3.68%......................15.4%
    CMO............3.24%.......................11.5%
    ARR.............3.16%........................17.6%
    ARI...............3.07%........................10.4%
    MTGE.........2.6%..........................12.7%
    NYMT..........2.55%.......................16.3%
    RWT...........2,24%,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,7.6%
    ANH............1.57%.......................11.80%
    RSO............1.31%........................21.1%
    RAS.............1.25%.......................13.7%
    DX...............1.17%.........................14.3%
    NCT.............0.96%.........................10.1%

  • Reply to

    UBS's LMLP is one of its better ETN performers

    by fav_for_08 Jul 6, 2015 1:31 PM
    fav_for_08 fav_for_08 Aug 11, 2015 3:57 PM Flag

    Buy the day after the Fed increases the FF's rate by $0.25; most analyst believe the Fed's Open Market Committee will announce the increase on September 17th at the end of the OMC' s meeting

JMI
6.45+0.03(+0.47%)Sep 3 4:02 PMEDT