Justice, good point. Hopefully the larger plan will play out and we will wee significant valuation in due time, but it sometimes is frustrating seeing the hold-out on a BP deal coupled with a a trigger-finger eagerness to dilute shareholders whenever possible without any non-dilutive value created to date.
Just when we thought we were on the right track, DO takes the opportunity to use Aduro's success to backhand shareholders again. We should start calling him DD (Dilution Dan).
Good points Scott, I saw your post earlier on Aegis. Not sure why they were on the deal since they contributed to the debacle and driving the price down in 13/14. Given four dilutions in only a year and a half, one might wonder if ADXS management has simply begun to equate "raising cash" as a success regardless of its impact to shareholders. That's why Aduro has a valuation 3x our because the CEO has crafted significant deals that are non-dilutive. Anyone can get a banker to raise cash that is dilutive. Moreover, it would appear ADXS is riding the coattails of Aduro's success, but ironically not to land a similar big deal but to opportunistically dilute shareholders more with no BP deal landed to date.
I had spoken to Dan before. I appreciated his passion for what he was doing, but one has to wonder now if he's too deep under the spell of bankers who couldn't care less about shareholders as long as they get paid. Dan's being pitched by the bankers, which can be addictive to the ego since they are putting him on a pedastool, but IMO he should be more focused on getting a deal done with BP that is non-dilutive to shareholders instead of signing off on every bankers pitch that comes his way (four dilutive deals in a years and a half with no BP monetary deals that benefit shareholders begs the question what's going on).
A lose analogy would be a case in which someone covertly lights a house on fire then returns when it is up in flames, rescues the inhabitants and brings them to safety and is applauded afterwards for his heroic action.
Thanks Cattdogg. I thought it was important to put the significant rise we have seen in context (i.e., that the rise , while impressive, is actually not as large as it would appear if you take into consideration that the sub $3 bottom we rose from was directly a result of a controversial massive RSU grab by management done via controversial means (to put it nicely).
I'm holding tight and in long-term because I believe in the science and been here over fives years (I can wait another couple years to hopefully see us reach fair valuation in the multibillion range), but the reason folks are angry simply boils down to the fact that - while DO has made progress advancing the pipeline since he took the helm and raised needed cash - the bottom line is he has diluted shareholders four times in only a year and a half and has not secured any non-dilutive upfront payment or any monetary deals with big pharma. Meanwhile our most direct competitor, whose technology is arguably not as versatile or strong as ours, has secured BP deals valued at nearly $2 billion with $250 million in upfront non-dilutive cash. It's easy for our management to keep saying they're holding out for more later, but it's also reasonable for us to ask the question is that really the case or is our management just not that effective in crafting deals that benefit the company and its shareholders? At the end of the day, it doesn't take a lot of skill to dilute shareholders, but it does take skill to negotiate deals with BP valued in the hundreds of millions of dollar with upfront non-dilute payment in the tens of millions of dollars. I'm not trying to bash, but just ask a valid question. Recently we have seen BP enter deals valued at more than $1 billion for pre-clinical indications (J&E mentioned one recently, I cannot recall the name of the company), yet we have ample solid clinical data plus pre-clinical data yet have not entered one deal with BP. I would rather see one deal sharing/given aways some rights on one construct (say with HER2 for breast cancer valued at $500+ million with $50 million upfront) to ease the need for constant slamming of shareholders by way of ongoing dilution. While I appreciate the rise we have seen since last year, I would remind folks that the bottom we came off of last year was a bottom DO himself caused because of the misguided proxy.
I think many of the same longs remain here, it's just you don't here from them as much when the board become polluted with short-term short idiots like hyena, flipalpha, bokaraton, boyatrader, rdmikes, etc
One of the books I read on the financial crisis (I can't remember which one) referred to the bank mentality through it all - "private profits, but public losses" (i.e., there were years of banking interests pushing for de-regulation, "we need capitalism with minimal regulation so that banks can operate in free markets...until the point when their risk taking caught up with them, then the tune changed to "Mr. Government we need you to bail us out with taxpayer money."
Interesting question on why not another private placement. I don't know, but likely because DO and the bankers thinks they can get better terms by doing a public secondary The Aduro deal traded up more than double the day of AND we are so much more attractively valued than Aduro. If they didn't thin a secondary would be successful, they could have gotten the same folks they have been talking to to do a private placement.
Hard to tell, I would think around the current price, given we have traded down (probably in part because of those in the know stepping the stock down to the offer price).
One thing that kind of ticks me off a bit is that the bankers in this deal are going to make out very well for doing very little work. It will probably be one of the easiest "sales" they have every made. Let's think about. Mr. banker reads his script explaining the great promise of listeria cancer vaccines, their versatility across multiple cancers and synergies in combination with other promising therapies like PD1. Then comes the closing pitch. "Oh and by the way there are two companies developing a listeria cancer platform and I can get you in one of them at a third of the valuation as the other one. And the one I am working with has patent protection from the original technology developed out of the University of Pennsylvania Medical School. Hands down, the easiest pitch any Barclays or Jefferies banker will make this year.
I agree with James, this offering will further strengthen the company. Who knows what the price will be tomorrow or the next day, but having more cash in the bank gives DO greater leverage in setting the terms in a BP licensing deal. Just as DO doesn't need to raise cash now, he doesn't need to strike a licensing deal now, so any deal that Merck or whomever puts forth will need to be compelling. And given that Merck and Bristol are in a heated race on the PD1 front, I think when ADXS does strike a deal it will be meaningful. This offering is just another step toward ultimately selling the company for (what was it DO said, ADXS could turn out to be bigger than ImClone which was sold for +$6 billion).
You know, it is interesting, Aduro announces their Novartis deal shortly before the IPO, which obviously increased demand for Aduro shares. I wonder if DO will announce a deal going around this secondary.
Good post, but in your title I believe you mean Adage (not Aduro).
The user who goes by the name of bokka_raton is an unemployed high school drop-out who lives in a single-wide trailer in rural Florida but wants you to think he is a high roller.