HD, it seems that when we reached $30 it was after the $19 capital raise in which it was revealed that high quality Adage was invested, then additional investor interest picked up. What's interesting about the "walk down" from $30 to the next capital raise at $13.91 was that the cornerstone investor in the $13.91 capital raise also owned 150k shares during the second quarter when the stock peaked at $30, but by the end of the second quarter Sectoral had sold its original 150k investment only to coincidently re-invested over 1m shares after the stock traded back down to $13.91 (throughout the time of the $30 peak Sectoral was presumably in negoations with ADXS on this capital raise and what was a fair "market" price). The trail of Sectoral's original investment prior the sell-off at $30 around which time Sectoral sold and then "negotiated/short sold down" a new market price of $13.91 for its $20 million investment makes me wonder whether the pattern of ADXS' financings is allowing hedge funds to game ADXS' stock price for short-term financial gains.
Then after the $13.91 capital raise, the stock traded back up to the low $20s on the compelling GOG survival data before selling off on information related to the patient death and subsequent clinical hold.
Per my previous question, I now see the 33 million does include the warrants because insiders own about 8% of the 33 million shares outstanding according to Yahoo, and the as I recall there are around a total of 5-6 million warrants.
Agreed Lakersss. The manner in which Dan lied to, cheated and diluted shareholders of the Spring of 2014 can be forgiven but not forgotten (certainly ot until he delivers the $50 share price he pitched shareholders on when he took the helm).
I don't think the 26% ownership stat in Morningstar is accurate. Yahoo reports ADXS has 33 million shares outstanding. 26% of 33 million is 8.6 million shares. However, Adage owns 5.9 million shares. Yahoo reports a float of around 24 million. 26% of 24 million gets you to around the number of shares Adage owns, so maybe Morningstar's % ownership figures are based on the float rather than shares outstanding. I know float subtracts out the shares owned by insiders, but does anyone know if the 33 million shares outstanding includes the warrants (my guess is it does).
Also, Morningstar shows that during the third quarter Adage increased its shares by exactly 300k shares, which is the number in a filing that Adage issued on an additional shares acquisition. Because they own more than 5% of the company, they have to disclose any new purchases. The one filing that wasn't as clear was the one they did on something about being exempt from FTC pre-approval for a share acquisition or merger of sorts - not sure what that was about.
No doubt we have a very skillful lawyer at the helm. I remember after the infamous Spring of 2014 40% discounted secondary offering in which the new group of investors filled the previous shortfall of yes votes necessary to pass the RSU package, some on this message posted that they contacted the company angry and asking for an explanation why the offering was 40% below where the stock traded the previous week the official company response was "we got the best price the market was willing to give us". So any questions about the timing of the release happening conveniently after management share acquisitions I will imagine will be answered with something like "we worked diligently to respond to all FDA request and get the hold lifted as soon as we possible could".
Remember DO is a very good lawyer. There is a fine line between what is considered fraudulent and criminal versus simply working hard and smart to get the hold lifted but doing so in a way that is (not overtly of course) mindful of the timing of management share purchases and the financial benefits of waiting until those shares are purchases at a lower price.
I'm just trying to be realistic and manage my own expectations. We know that DO (at least by judging some of his past actions) puts his own financial interests ahead of patients and shareholders, so I'd be very surprised if we heard that the hold is lifted before the Form 4's are filed. That said, HD I agree looking beyond that, it could be a very good December as the market would welcome news of the release of the hold and an approved SPA would add to it.
Form 4's usually come out on the 1st or 2nd. If the Form 4's this week show much larger purchases we will know they are investing their annual cash bonus, hence the reason to delay any lifting of the hold until cheap shares have been purchased.
You should probably go back to that other message board and stay there. Clearly, with so low odds of past success in the field of Alzheimer's Disease you have no interest in investing in any company in the field.
I'm personally middle of the road, don't agree with the extreme views on the far right or far left. I would categorize Obama on the far left. I read an article a week or so ago that the Obama is now trying to take his climate change initiatives a step further by restricting the investments that pension funds can make preventing them from investing in the public stock of companies Obama deems detrimental to the environment. Where does he draw the line? Pension funds have always has the fiduciary obligations to make investments that generate an attractive return to meet their employee retirement obligations, yet not it looks like Obama is politicizing the investment criteria by restrictions their investments in certain investment that are perfectly legal publically traded stock. IMO this is an excessive overreach of government micromanaging the private sector.
Agreed, a pps of $60 for ADXS is very realistic, as it would just put us around the same valuation that ADRO is at today.
Best holiday wishes to you IMPRVNGMYAVG as well. Agree that we are all in this together and share similar end goals as investors and for cancer patients.
PRD, thanks for the clarification on the FDA hold and response policies.
My guess is the 30 day clock reset. DO issued the PR closing in on the original 30 days saying the FDA agreed the patient death was not due to LLM but late stage cervical cancer, but said all four trials were on hold to address any protocol changes necessary to ensure LLM didn't remain in any patient moving forward. Hopefully whatever was submitted in terms of protocol changes will be approved by the end of the second 30 day period. Wasbill made a good point earlier today that the hold-up could be related to applying any final changes to the Phase III SPA, would be great to see the hold lifted at the same time an announcement of an approved SPA is made.
Lakkersss, it feels like we are starting to see the same type of shareholder unrest voiced in the year preceding Tom Moore's removal. Give it another year. DO's strategy all along has been rooted in striking a big deal on the Merck and/or Astra combination trials. We'll see first data on those trials in 2016. If he still hasn't been able to create value a year from now, my guess is it won't just be Yahoo message board shareholders expressing discontent but our large institutional holders that he won't be able to push around.
Good point Wasbill, we know ADXS submitted the SPA a few months ago but haven't heard anything since then. Considering that ADXS has Orphan status for this trial, one would think the FDA is "working with" ADXS to move the SPA forward. That would be best case scenario - the hold is lifted at the same time the SPA is announced.
At the end of the day, Aduro's presence is good for ADXS as it serves as an accountability check. The 1/5th valuation disparity between the two companies is what it is. We can all guess what is happening, try to attribute why Aduro secured the deals it did and why ADXS' deals appear at best back loaded or at worst weak, but at the end of the day for two companies with similar technologies one has a valuation 1/5th of the other (that is a fact). I'm giving ADXS management the benefit of the doubt recognizing that DO's strategy may take some time to bear fruit and add value, but the clock is ticking no doubt. At a certain point if the valuation disparity remains, there will be no more excuses and it will be clear that the reason for the valuation disparity is because one of the two companies has a stronger management team that has made better decisions running the business.
I don't have all the answers either - I sold the majority of mine prior to FDA approval in the $0.20-$0.50 range. I'm still happy to have made some profit, because I rode it down at one point to $0.01 thinking my investment could have turned to zero.
"we are actively formulating plans to secure proper funding.."
Dilution coming? Maybe that's another reason we've seen a lackluster response to FDA approval.