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Linn Energy, LLC (LINE) Message Board

fcfguy 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 3, 2014 2:49 PM Member since: Oct 11, 2008
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  • fcfguy fcfguy Sep 3, 2014 2:49 PM Flag

    The $35 represents the un-discounted value. The $18 is adjusted for the 10% discount factor, and the more appropriate assessment. However, 10% is an arbitrary number and the reserves can fluctuate, depending on the incentive for EXXON to enhance the fields - the primary incentive being price.

  • Reply to

    what if gold goes to 700? ?

    by vomit_breath_taste_good Aug 22, 2014 1:49 AM
    fcfguy fcfguy Aug 22, 2014 1:02 PM Flag

    you've chosen a good name.

  • Reply to

    Short Interest 43 729 638 + NAKED

    by goldoking7777 Aug 20, 2014 3:57 PM
    fcfguy fcfguy Aug 20, 2014 4:17 PM Flag

    It's actually 36.3 million and 17 days to cover. See: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/anv/short-interest

  • but somebody(s) clearly thinks they know something.
    Stay tuned.

  • Reply to

    WTW IS BEING ACCUMULATED!

    by sempertruth Aug 10, 2014 11:59 AM
    fcfguy fcfguy Aug 18, 2014 5:17 PM Flag

    Buying to maintain their proportionate position - as disclosed in the SEC document of Aug 6 (or 7). Not a bad reason, but nothing special, either. However, it does confirm their belief in the story (or one would think it does). I also read that SAC has established a position (read it on Google Fin), but can't confirm from the NASDAQ data, so may not be true.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Time to sell this...

    by ninht88 Aug 13, 2014 1:18 PM
    fcfguy fcfguy Aug 14, 2014 2:44 PM Flag

    Amen!

  • In case you missed it, Hedgeye is out with a big mea culpa on their Kinder short. As they say, "what goes around, comes around". I'm sure the corporate suite at LINN is enjoying it !

  • There was near euphoria in early after hours trading as WTW beat the estimate and raised guidance from $1.45 - $1.70 to $1.65 - $1.85.
    Then the conference call chilled the mood, especially at the very end when the CFO mentioned that the first half of 2015 would be penalized approximately 60c, reflecting the substantially reduced recruiting from the first half of 2014. The trading range was huge, reaching $25.15 @4:10 then dropping to a low of $19.85 and ultimately closing at $21.05, up 4c on the day (which was up $1.18 in regular trading).
    The good news was the beat and the obvious improvement in the outlook. The bad news was the significant drop in sales in N America and Europe in both on site and on line operations - something for the bulls and something for the bears, but hard to believe the numbers justify a short position of 43% of the float.
    Too soon to tell if this is the inflection point, or not. I'll maintain my slightly under-water position, for now.

  • Reply to

    Is this foe real..cant b

    by vortecman Jun 25, 2014 12:34 PM
    fcfguy fcfguy Jun 29, 2014 10:07 AM Flag

    There is no residual. The "Trust" which consists of the mineral rights to the iron ore, exits for twenty years after the death of the last original trustee. He died nineteen years ago. All (repeat - ALL) rights then convert back to current owner of the property (CONOCO oil). The Trust will cease to exist on 15 April 2015. Whatever cash and fungible assets remain on the books will then be distributed as a final payment prior to the end on 2016. That's it - there is no more, no trust, no residual, no nothing. All of this is explained, clearly, on GNI's web site and has been for years. Assuming three more dividends of $2.50 plus a final payment of $6 - $9, the net present value is somewhere between $13 - $16. It could be higher or lower if the last three dividends are higher or lower which depends on demand for ore and prices.

  • fcfguy fcfguy Jun 27, 2014 6:13 PM Flag

    Probably not, but it has been sooooooo much fun watching GNI for the past several years and reading some of the postings on this site. Kudos to those who have been able to profit from the folly of others.

  • Reply to

    input

    by gta0089 Jun 16, 2014 3:01 PM
    fcfguy fcfguy Jun 26, 2014 8:37 AM Flag

    Joe,
    The trust terminates (that means it ends, is gone, doesn't exist, etc.) in April of 2015. Whatever cash remains on the balance sheet will be distributed (estimated to be $6-9) by the end of 2016. The trust has no physical assets, it simply receives royalty payments from the ore mined on the lands covered by the Trust. There is no "rebate". There are three more distributions and the residual. That's it.
    All of this is clearly posted on the GNI web site and has been for years.
    It goes ex dividend today. The stock closed at $21.65 last night. It should open down $2.50 below that figure, all else being equal. With three more dividends (assume they average $2.50, each) and a $6 - $9 final distribution (in up to two and a half years), it's worth $13 - $16, this AM (and that doesn't factor in the discount for the time value of receiving your money over the next 30 months).

LINE
30.96+0.14(+0.45%)Sep 17 3:59 PMEDT

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