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Stonemor Partners LP Message Board

fcfguy 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 29, 2014 10:07 AM Member since: Oct 11, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Is this foe real..cant b

    by vortecman Jun 25, 2014 12:34 PM
    fcfguy fcfguy Jun 29, 2014 10:07 AM Flag

    There is no residual. The "Trust" which consists of the mineral rights to the iron ore, exits for twenty years after the death of the last original trustee. He died nineteen years ago. All (repeat - ALL) rights then convert back to current owner of the property (CONOCO oil). The Trust will cease to exist on 15 April 2015. Whatever cash and fungible assets remain on the books will then be distributed as a final payment prior to the end on 2016. That's it - there is no more, no trust, no residual, no nothing. All of this is explained, clearly, on GNI's web site and has been for years. Assuming three more dividends of $2.50 plus a final payment of $6 - $9, the net present value is somewhere between $13 - $16. It could be higher or lower if the last three dividends are higher or lower which depends on demand for ore and prices.

  • fcfguy fcfguy Jun 27, 2014 6:13 PM Flag

    Probably not, but it has been sooooooo much fun watching GNI for the past several years and reading some of the postings on this site. Kudos to those who have been able to profit from the folly of others.

  • Reply to

    input

    by gta0089 Jun 16, 2014 3:01 PM
    fcfguy fcfguy Jun 26, 2014 8:37 AM Flag

    Joe,
    The trust terminates (that means it ends, is gone, doesn't exist, etc.) in April of 2015. Whatever cash remains on the balance sheet will be distributed (estimated to be $6-9) by the end of 2016. The trust has no physical assets, it simply receives royalty payments from the ore mined on the lands covered by the Trust. There is no "rebate". There are three more distributions and the residual. That's it.
    All of this is clearly posted on the GNI web site and has been for years.
    It goes ex dividend today. The stock closed at $21.65 last night. It should open down $2.50 below that figure, all else being equal. With three more dividends (assume they average $2.50, each) and a $6 - $9 final distribution (in up to two and a half years), it's worth $13 - $16, this AM (and that doesn't factor in the discount for the time value of receiving your money over the next 30 months).

  • Reply to

    All Those Lawsuits a Ruse??

    by fortyninereasons Jun 10, 2014 6:47 PM
    fcfguy fcfguy Jun 11, 2014 7:45 AM Flag

    I don't believe there is a set time, but I could be wrong - don't know.

  • Reply to

    All Those Lawsuits a Ruse??

    by fortyninereasons Jun 10, 2014 6:47 PM
    fcfguy fcfguy Jun 11, 2014 1:45 AM Flag

    You're probably right, but it's too soon to say. If the class is certified, the judge thinks there is a case. The damages could be anywhere from small or huge. If it can be shown they lied about a material matter, for example, that could be way beyond a D&O claim - highly, highly unlikely, but possible.

  • Reply to

    All Those Lawsuits a Ruse??

    by fortyninereasons Jun 10, 2014 6:47 PM
    fcfguy fcfguy Jun 10, 2014 9:34 PM Flag

    I believe the lawsuit is awaiting certification by the judge. June 2nd was just the last day to be selected lead plaintiff. However, it still has to be certified which is far from a foregone conclusion. If it is certified, plaintiffs have to show fraudulent intent, outright lying, etc. - highly unlikely. Probably just a sideshow and a little added drama to a very dramatic stock.

  • The $130M deal will give AIM majority ownership of the GP.
    What does this mean for unit holders? STON has only been able to pay its lofty dividend by issuing new shares. Will the new GP change the MO?
    Should be interesting

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by jkgino Apr 30, 2014 4:32 PM
    fcfguy fcfguy May 1, 2014 7:33 AM Flag

    $50 is a possibility in several years when they have realized all of the programs they are implementing. In the nearer term, $30 is probably a more reasonable target. Things aren't as bad as a 38% short position would indicate, but there are significant headwinds that have to be overcome, IMO. Nevertheless, it was an impressive start, bankruptcy would appear to be off the table, and the shorts must feel pretty crowded.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Why This Goes Up Big In the Next 2 Weeks

    by chrisstocksnmore Apr 30, 2014 11:24 PM
    fcfguy fcfguy May 1, 2014 12:21 AM Flag

    I think you got it just about right.

    They have a long way to go, but the journey of a thousand miles . . .

    The CEO and CFO sugarcoated nothing, but they have a clearly articulated and well thought out plan which they are executing, and the new web tsar actually sounded quite impressive. Obviously, there's a difference between sounding good and delivering, but one comes away with the impression they were grossly underutilizing their web potential, so, in the right hands, this could be a huge opportunity.

    As you point out, the short position is 38% of the float. That leaves very little room for error. This should be interesting.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Dividend

    by zjdc Apr 24, 2014 6:07 PM
    fcfguy fcfguy Apr 26, 2014 8:41 AM Flag

    According to proxy statement, the record date is 3 June, so the ex-date should be two days before. 3 June is a Tuesday, so ex-date should be Friday, 30 May. They will pay 1.615 HK$ per share. There are 5 ORDs per ADR. 1.615 HK$ translates into about 21 cents, US. So, they should pay $1.05 per ADR versus $1.145 in the same period, last year. I believe this data is correct, but not positive.

  • Reply to

    So, where's terror child's report?

    by coochy.cooty Apr 24, 2014 4:02 PM
    fcfguy fcfguy Apr 25, 2014 9:46 AM Flag

    THX. I missed that missive! Hopefully, hockey puck will be like so many garage bands of the sixties, a "one hit wonder".

STON
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