agree. look at clf a high cost producer in N. America going against Vale (Brazil) and BHP (Austrailia) CLF costs are going to BK it in this low priced commodity market. The same could be said of ANT, WLT and ACI. BTU is the Vale and BHP of coal. The $2 coal miners will be going BK just as CLF will. IMHO of course.
stocks in a very out of favor sector like materials always overshoot to the downside. on the way up overshoot to the upside - reversion to mean its called.
if the drillers are fracking ng there breakeven is $3.50. anything below that and fracking for just ng goes away. n dakota frackers are already just getting the liquids to market and flairing the gas to the tune of $1m worth per day. i wonder if the epa is even counting that carbon production?
i'll get my $10 handle this week yet
yes commodities pricing, and i hate to admit it but i'm long btu from the mid 20's, is causing all the disruption in both hard and soft commodities. I made over $27k profits in clf in the China boom times. We are all desperate for the Chinese to return to big commodities spending.
2/19/2013 @ 1:15PM 4,178 views
Snag CLF Even Lower Than Its Secondary?
Looking back to 5 days ago, Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc. (NYSE: CLF) priced a 9,000,000 share secondary stock offering at $29.00 per share. Buyers in that offering made a considerable investment into the company, expecting that their investment would go up over the course of time. In trading on Tuesday, bargain hunters could buy shares of CLF and achieve a cost basis 1.1% cheaper than those buyers, with shares changing hands as low as $28.69 per share.
starting to think you're right. this is falling way to fast to see a quick bottom.especially in a 1plus % upmarket. if it were dropping $.10 to $.20 per day I would say $10 or $11 was bottom.
agree, if you can't watch your money and put in a fast market order to sell you deserve to have the MM's steal your money
you're not alone, look at all the clf longs having fun
right the MM's and GS have a price target of $10 for btu and they know where the shares will come from - weak handed retail and capitulation. the buy orders are stacked up around $10 just look at level 3 and see for yourself
don't be a sucker and fall for wall streets antics i have several hundred grand ready to flop down on the table for a long position in btu
i got hit with a hail storm and a roofer came by and said "you need a new roof and your insurance will pay for it" he was right insurance paid $10,000. Last time I looked insurance won't pay for a solar panel dented pitted or chipped by quarter plus hail stones. right?
like the guy told the king: "This too shall pass." The four words that cover all outcomes.
good point. its not only about coal. also iron ore is taking a multi year pounding as well as soft commodities corn, wheat etc..
they'll keep selling till coal reaches a price bottom not before. stock prices are meaningless here. its also about sentiment for the funds. they can't hold coal stocks anymore because of the stigma there investors have on coals in general. will this change? all runs end at some point. its hell until they do.