trust me on this its playing out to the downside
it appears the supercycle downturn will take out clf as its next victim.
yeah aci and wlt look worse and worse each day for cash flow to maintain there debt covenants. btu is no hero but it just may end being a winner by default.
agree. i've lost plenty of money adding to 2nd and 3rd place losers. than i found out the pe and hedge guys add to drawdowns all the time because they find that longtime established firms that are number 1 in size and share in there industry tend to out survive there competitors. sometimes even prosper after the bad times.
6 repubs need to be elected over Dems to regain the Senate and 6 of those Senate seats are in coal producing states.why i'm optimistic.
its easy. the market will continue to believe coal is dead until after the fact of the election. most people do not believe the GOP will regain the senate. until that happens coal won't budge.
agree. Boyce is the biggest wet #$%$ cat in the biz. he hasn't even reduced headcount yet. forced reduction through chap 7 will be the only savior for coal. btu may be a survivor.
in a perverse way you are correct. cramer hates btu but cramer is a bull horn for the funds so he's trying to lower the stock price of btu so the hedge guys can pick the pockets of the ignorant retail holders
i'm looking at cost averaging to bring down my % paper losses. i know you should never add to a losing position but i watch the hedge funds do it all the time. this is more a sector (including iron ore and other materials) slide than a btu one..its cyclical and requires nerves of steel when a sector falls this far out of favor..
its all in the numbers gang
agree, once the bankers and protected bond holders get the assets at 10 cents on the dollar they'll dump them. i doubt if anybody wants to throw good money after bad in restarting these 3 dirt piles.
ACI Arch Coal 2.07 -0.15 -6.76% 2.25 2.01 3,594,040 10:29
WLT Walter Energy 2.12 -0.12 -5.36% 2.29 2.09 4,308,301 10:29
ANR Alpha Natural Resources 2.42 -0.13 -5.10% 2.57 2.40 5,390,304 10:29
this is very similar to the tobacco industry when people were told to quit smoking by the feds and 20 million still do. the cig co's just moved their marketing offshore. the same for coal i.e. foreign sales. cig prices trebled also the same for future coal prices. outlaw it (not quite for cigs) or make it scarce and the prices rocket..
yeah, i got plenty of fresh powder and i believe that coal is dead but the tree huggers are going to be paying big time to get rid of the coal corpse i.e. tremendously high electric rates before sun and wind take over. killing off the smaller coal players is the first step. the coal survivor (s) will prosper beyond belief !.
don't believe guidance more btu lies
need a floor of support for coal prices. production will drop in reorg. won't have to wait long now.
variable interest equity = an interest in a contract not the on going business. sec is doing the devils business as in Madoff.