its politics, commodities cycle and wall street looking for a bargain. if a person doesn't have an iron gut you need to stay clear of coal,
smart analyst's build this into there models as a contingency. they don't mention it because not everyone, i.e. other analysts, think of it
no one (utilities) would sign a future contract on commodiites with a fixed price without putting in a clause to have the price lowered by some amount if the commodity price crashes. producers always "forget" to mention this when they talk about there production being committed i.e. priced. just look at gas & fuel price clauses for surcharges for truckers, airlines etc.
ok, makes sense, that to. thanks for your reply.
i know he doesn't take over till May (after 1q) what i mean is after "his" qtr or q2
doubt it. this management is really at their best when they don't do anything as they have been. instead of a $5 stock we would be at $1 with the others in the sector if they do ANYTHING..
agree.btu's plan to turn around there company is to bend over spread there cheeks and take it up the kazoo from the feds, wall street, environmentalists, etc. etc. problem is btu's shareholders ARE ALSO GETTING IT !
the price of coal will go up because of a cut in production. problem is after today it looks like btu will be the one going bankrupt.
fcx gets a double hit from oil and copper. fb is on a daily user treadmill and keeps upping the numbers they need to beat. fb will peak in users and collapse and the fb investors holding the stock will crater with them. the east coast money center banks will get out of fb long before the retail trade making the drop off the cliff even steeper. fb is a disaster waiting in the wings for the little guy - again.
True contrarian value investors and followers of graham will act now and buy btu because its at half book value and graham says thats the "margin of safety" see below from wikipedia
"Using margin of safety, one should buy a stock when it is worth more than its price on the market. This is the central thesis of value investing philosophy which espouses preservation of capital as its first rule of investing. Benjamin Graham suggested to look at unpopular or neglected companies with low P/E and P/B ratios. One should also analyze financial statements and footnotes to understand whether companies have hidden assets (e.g., investments in other companies) that are potentially unnoticed by the market.
The margin of safety protects the investor from both poor decisions and downturns in the market. Because fair value is difficult to accurately compute, the margin of safety gives the investor room for investing.
A common interpretation of margin of safety is how far below intrinsic value one is paying for a stock. For high quality issues, value investors typically want to pay 90 cents for a dollar (90% of intrinsic value) while more speculative stocks should be purchased for up to a 50 percent discount to intrinsic value (pay 50 cents for a dollar."
citi hasn't cleaned house yet and SEC is to blame. don't give these citi crooks your btu shares for free
triple down when it gets to $5 and you'll get all your money back in less than 1 yr versus waiting 5 years without
av cost for saudi oil $10 thats breakeven. they have $1t in u.s. dollars and a very bad attitude towards competitors like shale and off shore. being a rocket scientist to figure out whats going on isn't needed here.
this is THE bottom folks blue sky from here
Guy on Fast Money says & he's the boss!
the $45 sell order i have in are for ALL my BTU shares of course. I do not own Rig yet
cramers a huge loser (his charitable trust) in ensco and vale for 2014. he pushes the momo stocks be careful.
If you are long RIG (BTU?) make sure that all your shares are for sale, Say $45. That way the shorts can't borrow them.
It's like taking them out of the float that the shorts need to cover. Good luck covering shorts.
My Reply:interesting. this would put a higher premium on shares available to short thus making it more expensive for Shorts and reducing the shorted shares.
Kwilet750: Just make sure any shares you purchase are for sale long term at a high price, That will take them out of the float of shares the shorts need to cover. I started buying (RIG) and will keep buying some on the dips, but I to am waiting to buy the Big chunk on the dividend cut news that's why I don't think there will be a big drop like everyone thinks there will be.
P.S I just put in a $45 GTC sell order on my shares. Its good for 90 days. Than I'll do it again.