with 80% held by institutions i'm now thinking its not capitulation but short sellers and qtr end selling. capitulation would most likely need a catalyst for retail to unload. imho
agree. the pm's, pe, mutual funds, and hedge funds are down 4% year to date according to Bloomberg last week. 4% doesn't sound like a lot but the S&P is up high single digits and exceeding previous highs.
also, the funds aren't allowed to keep any shares under $5 this may lead to wholesale dumping if the shares aren't reversed split soon to stay above $5. as far as a private equity placement I'm afraid I agree with you.
history - i agree if we see $70 or even $60 oil before year end we'll see BTU in the mid to upper teens. BTU followed oil down I see no reason why it won't likewise reverse and follow it back up. GL.
bottom? who knows?
ever since w.va. voted in g.w. bush, with there 4 electoral votes and killing off gore, the Dems were out for "get back" on the coal industry. its all politics. the Repubs have an excellent chance of defeating Hilary and reversing the EPA, Sec of Interior, etc. etc.
agree. btu stock is a leap (2-3 years) call option at this point. either you believe that political beliefs will swing from left to right and balance out the last 8 years or you don't. i believe they will.
take the bait bottom fishers
maintained there goal weight. When asked about this, the former CEO of wtw said, and I quote " Hey, that's what keeps us in business." end quote. Really? Keeps you in business? Hows that kind of management thinking working out for you guys these days?
a good resource for for shale well costs is the most recent vnr qtr cc. they said a standard ng well runs around $3m in costs where a shale well costs $7m. shale also depletes 50% the first year and increase's the depletion rate in the 2nd and 3rd year., oddly enough vnr is going all in on ng by selling its oil holdings.
perhaps the Repubs, and if especially if the Repubs win the White House, will roll out Federal Subsidies to the utilities to implement this system. Hey, why not? Subsidies seem to work, for now anyway, for the solar guys. Besides, according to this report very little modifications/costs will be needed to implement this type of carbon capture versus the pilot plants running todays expensive carbon capture.
look at clf write down as a guide. clf's book value, after a massive write down of assets, is now -$14. see yahoo clf finance statistics for support documentation. not saying clf is chk but it does effect BV.
fair enough. commodities at times are an extremely tough market to make any sense of since it goes way beyond strictly supply and demand curves. Commodities are the most emotional charged trades in the markets.
you should have held out for aci and wlt to go bk. they will still be selling coal (maybe) if someone backs them with liquidity, which is very iffy. btu will get a nice bounce on those two bk news and the btu short squeeze.. btu will be the biggest last man standing to supply the 33% of U.S. electrical (lesser coke) needs