The Fed creating digital Money and buyng us treasurys is a spiral that have have a limit, is the GDP injecting Money in the economy could keep a growth but all country have a limit off GDP this up spiral could have a limit a exaustion of the production of a country if the fed don´t have a limit for the spiral of creating Money what will happen in a exaustion of the production of a country ( the limit) will make that a currency and us treasurys will crash, because the limit of the spiral ceating Money pass the production of the country.
If the fed decided to stop the stymulus the us economy could face a retraction and the dólar could be more strong against others the euro and the yen, but how is the situation the dólar as a world trade currency linked with oil, cheap oil could help europe to get out of recession, china could make is surplus to stymute is economy, japan could avoid recession, emmerging markets with the apreciation of the dólar they own currency could be more competive and could dinamzed is own markets and be less dependente of oil production, with introdution of tarifs to the polutions country and companys this could boost the search of alternative energy, with cheap oil this don´t means more consume if tarifs are made for polution, if taxes to polution made less consume this could help clean energy,.
Its not easy to china acept policies of clean energy and is companes don´t be less competitive, but if chinese population could get information about the polution could hurt is climate, they could force the govenment about leaving industrys that made more polution.
I believe that china be more green could create new oportunities to green energy and china will be forced to leave old teconology and buy other tecnology more clean.
if china whants oil the major economy no.
If the Fed decid to stop the stymulus a sign of crisis could be on the horizont, i believe that is a retraction of the economy, this make consumer don´t spend and save more Money and have more liquidity, this incrasse of liquidity in the familie is a retraction, people save mre Money in a snario of crises, and after the end of the crisis snerario they buy other things, i belive that a retraction of the economy is better than a cisis because a crisis catch families witout liquidity and is worst for the economy.
If the us treasuries was the injection of Money to the bull market, with the end of QE, i don´t know if is possible to short treasuries, but i believe when the end of the bull market iit will be a sell on short time treasuries and keep the long ,keep the long for the next bull market sell the short term because the bear market and keep liquidity.
A believe that after stymulus wallstreet will enter in a bear market, the big institutions will make Money shorting, but companies need to make Money, if a contrction in the usa economies will make companies and investors to sell foreign assets this will create a new bear market in the world, i believe that investor need to have a big liquidity to avoid a big bear market, but many americans don´t trust in the dólar that means they are iliquid to face the bear market, i believe that investors and company must think in stay in cash to have liquidy to face the bear market, the policy of dividends must be considered to help long term investors to have liquity.
I believe that twitter ipo was a sign for the market that will enter in bear market, but only after the end of stymulus of the Fed, only the Fed will decide officialy if when will enter in the bear market, i believe that stymulus only make the old bull market run, this bull market is a old bull junky running with doses of stymulus, i believe that a bear market is in incubation, if many believe that the bull market could run without stymulus, i believe twitter ipo destroy that ideia.
I believe the reasons are first the banques don´t lend, private workers the salary is to low, and the young companies that export are entering in dangerous markets, like Angola and Mozambique and they are very inexperiente in so unstable country, the agricultural sector that Money come from europe, the farmers are very old and Portugal devolve the Money to europe again because the farmers are to old to face risks, many say that Portugal don´t produce, but its not easy to be a inovatin company, in the 80 the têxtil sector many business man started they own companies, many buy old machines to the companies and when the company has many work they give work to this small companys and the education of this business man are to low, if the high court rejects the austery measures of the budget of 2014 this give Money to some young servisse companys, the servisse sector is the most young and qualified workers, and political the comunista party don´t have more power, te comunist party is well organized party, they have militants from university, , workers and most of the unions they have sympaty with the comunist party.
In Portugal the enter of Money to the real economy is by public workers, the banques don´t lend, high unemployment and low salaries by private workers can´t control deflation.
Europe got deflation it was easy to cut the interest rate of the BCE but the Money don´t come to the real economy, will not be easy to control the prices for the consumer.
The politicians of the perifery, particulary in Portugal think the measures made by the irish government are the soutions for Portugal but the reasons of the crisis were diferente to Portugal and irland, i believe the high cort of Portugal will express the constitutionality of the austerity measures of the budget of 2014 if the high cort of Portugal reject some measures of the budget, in the short term will be bad, but long term will be good.
I believe that at long term will avoid that left wing in Portugal especiality the communists will have more growth, the communist party of Portugal is one of the most organized partys of Portugal, if the high cort of Portugal reject some austerity measures that will be bad for the short term , but long term will be good to avoid the growth of the communist party, the most organized country of Portugal.
after one of the most painfull crisis in the history was passed after ireland get out of the troika, Portugal getting out of the recession this was made without revolutions and europe is United, the euro passed one of his most big test.
I believe the a rate below 5% only with a new technology, in the period of 1995 to 2000 the introdution of cheap computers created lots of jobs, the situation on 1995 to 2000 was just a few dominate the technology of computers, after the interest of the population for this product this create interest in buying the product (computer) and learning the technology that many don´t understand, this period created a big investment by companys and private, companys invested in qualification of is workers and private persons to sell and give assistence and that creted many small stores. This inovation on technology with computers was the same with television, forniture, wash machine, fridge and othe electric tools.
I believe that the future wil be in generation of energy we are in a primary fase, with solar, wind and battery, but generation of energy is a need that all population need. I believe that the creation of clean and cheap energy will create jobs and that new techonology could bring down the unemployment.
There many ways to promote a business but if in the past they leave a physical legacy now who invest in logos in the internet they could lose is legacy, but many creative people could create a site for old logos on the internet, even with this ideia many big companys chanche their logo all days like Google and Yahoo, its a field that the world of put on a online old logos is not exploiet.
the sucess of social media on ipad, pc, and mobile if could go to big screens could be better for publicity .
i believe the market for big screens is for rich people, but i believe that social media could be more atractive for publicity in big screens than small screens.
I believe that the ECB the way they are now he can´t push down the bond treasuries of the PIGS, i believe that in the future the citizans of the eurozone must be more linked with the ECB not only with using the euro as a currency. But a bank can solve the problems of the states members of the eurozone, here is something hard to solve because there is no control on the politicians of the states, i believe that the ECB must create a bad bank for treasuries of member states that can´t pay, and the ECB pay to the creditors, many could say that will create states that will be not disciplinate on is budgets, but all the states of the eurozone have gold and the gold of the good bank the ECB if a state don´t pay is bills go to the bad bank , the gold is from who don´t pay to is creditors, the movement of gold from the good bank to the bad bank will give cofidence to the currency "the euro", even a country that don´t pay is treasuries must face reforms to pay is debt, the bad treasuries that are in the bad bank will be secure by the gold of the member states that can´t pay to is creditors, the ECB will pay and the state will lose is gold, after reforms the member state pay to the ECB and the bad tresuries disapear and the portion of gold that the member state pay go again to the good bank that is the ECB, this is a cycle that make bad times and good times of euro and give perpuatuate the union inside europe.