I will answer that for my case.
I do not trust management for good reason. The existing drugs arecommercially marginal. And the pipeline has some ability to produce a "decent" drug, but I do not see a true blockbuster,
All that factors into the company we look at today, and is why the stock is where it is.
That said, I see a company that can become a decent specialty pahrama and have solid enough numbers to deserve a PPS in the teens. And not really much risk here.
Refineries can be profitable regardless of the price of crude. The Trainer losses a year ago were driven by a failure in the ethanol credit market (which they must buy as they can not blend ethanol into jet fuel). That market has since normalized.
Hedges are a modest issue. In the long run they should average out (unless one is speculating as opposed to true heding).
Q4 improved both load and PRASM over '13 numbers.
On load, the domestic numbers are much improved. On PRASM, not yet known, but I suspect domestic also was much improved (as we know international was imapired by the strong dollar).
The month of Dec was off. But that is only a portion of the data and is comparing different travel weeks from last year.
Last election was very close.
I would think the non-union vote would be stroinger this time around. Some of the old NWA (ex-union) FAs will be retired. And the profit sharing checks are in the bank.
That they signed up enough to call for a vote does not imply the union will win the vote. First, the card signing process is one sided. Second, a fair number of people will think a vote is reasonable even if they later vote no.
They will accept bids (I do not know if they are sealed or not) up until 1/27. If they get 2 or more qualified bids they will then have an auction (conituously accepting higher bids) between those bidders on Feb 3rd.
Roche certainly does have to pay royalties and milestones for the ex-US market. From the SEC docs (See about 2/3 of the way down).
"Pursuant to the Ex-U.S. Commercialization Agreement, Roche will have the right to commercialize the Company’s existing clinical diagnostic testing products, including FoundationOne and FoundationOne Heme, any clinical diagnostic products developed under the R&D Collaboration Agreement and any other products upon mutual agreement. Beginning one year after the execution of the Ex-U.S. Commercialization Agreement, Roche will have the exclusive right to commercialize such products worldwide, excluding the United States and any countries Roche elects to exclude during the first year of the term. Roche also holds a right of first negotiation with respect to the commercialization of the Company’s future clinical diagnostic products, excluding in vitro diagnostic tests and companion diagnostic products developed by the Company for third parties. Roche may pay the Company an agreed amount for the right to extend the launch timeline for FoundationOne and FoundationOne Heme by specified periods in specified countries. Roche will also pay agreed upon royalties and commercial milestones. Further, if Roche fails to meet certain minimum revenue requirements for FoundationOne or FoundationOne Heme tests in three consecutive years in a specified country, the Company has the right to terminate Roche’s exclusive commercialization rights in the applicable country. The Ex-U.S. Commercialization Agreement will remain in effect for five years and may be extended by Roche for additional two-year periods. Roche shall have the right to terminate the agreement without cause upon six months’ written notice after the initial five year term, and either party may terminate in the event of breach by the other party. "
Bionche's Urocidin by a new name.
This is the drug whos P3 died out several years ago and Endo (who had previously partnered it) gave up and returned it. Now under a new name they are going to file a BLA based on the earlier trial data that they have had for years. Right.
Did Endo not realize that all they ever had to do was just file the paperwork?
New company name.
New drug name.
Same old Y!MB pumping that spammed every biotech board for half a decade pumping this Canadian penny stock bio-scam.
Don't forget that if one owns the stock they can sell to Roche via the tender at $50.
The offer might be oversubscribed, so it is possible that not all of ones shares get sold. But the minimum will be about 50%, and very likely substantially higher. We know that a good chunk of insider shares are not panned on being tendered. And it is very likely more than a trivial amount of retail shares do not get tendered.
Get back to you in about a month if you are still around.
Per the PR on the 6th, they expect top line data in the second P2 "mid '15", but this seams quick. I will bet on fall being more reasonable.
I guess since nobody else posted this in 5 days I am talking to myself. Ok, goodnight. :-)
Partially agree. It will not have to compete on price. But partially disagree, it won't be able to set one of those $100k/course price tags either.
So it really come down to what a "premium" price actually is in dollars. Hopefully enough that it yields clear bottom line bump.
I would assume it is mainly how early in the devleopment stage the drug is when partnered.
Kyprolis was created in a parnership, so Ligand never had to contribute to the development. Melphalon was already through P2 when SPPI licensed it.
Still, 15-25% is high, particulary for a drug that is a reformulation and thus might be under price pressure.
Roche almost certainly would have bought the entire company, but a chunk of inside money did not want to part with all of their investment.
BTW, kool is either a troll or an idiot. Probably best to not respond to it.
Already back down to about $50 (which I suspect will be near pegged for a few months).
I sold all my shares (bought this summer) a few minutes after you did, got about 59.5 for them.
THANKS, did not realize the premarket up that high until I saw your post (it was around 50 when I checked) , so you made an extra .75 or so. That is beer money for several months!
Even if true, there is no reason to believe that ExpressScripts was paying list for the GILD product.
The current plan is to wait on data from the other P2 (in soft tissue) that is just starting.
The good news is that pain studies are quick. The just completed study (N=333) took about 8 months from start of recruiting till data, the soft tissue study is only N = 200. So I would hope to see a P3 being scheduled about tis time next year (assuming all goes well). They have made clear that in the meantime, they will be preparing to run the trial.
The cardio data (for whatever that is worth) is also schedule for late 2015. So I suspect it is sleepy time here for a while.
true, but you can buy the out of the money call options. If you do not like paying the premium, you can also sell some out of the money puts and have kind of a "fuzzy" synthetic long.