ARRY gets the drug back,$85M cash, and NVTS is still funding the P3s and other trials in progress,
OK wonder boy.
AF did not call it an SPPI trial. The tweet had a hash tag of $SPPI followed by "Trial of z..". Kind of obvious in the original tweet, so I assume your post here was a deliberate attempt to misquote and/or misinterpret AF? Given that it was a Zevalin trial, the SPPI hash tag seams kind of reasonable.
As far as "suspended" vs "enrollment suspended", that is funny. How else would one suspend a trial, put it in the freezer?
Agree completely. The counterfit shares are being printed in Area 51, and if this became known then the track might be followed back to proving that Obama is an alien.
Or one might just believe that DNDN had a debt that could not be paid, and declared BK while they still had sufficient cash to reorg.
When NVS bought GSK's oncology drugs earlier this year, they picket up a second MEK inhibitor and therefor they were required to get rid of one or the other. The GSK drug, Mekinst, was already on the market so they decided to give ARRY back their drug.
The details of the transaction were mandated by the contract signed a few years ago.
There is virtually always a punitive clause when a partner drops or returns a drug like this. Else BP could partner drugs and then kill them.
Royalty to Ligand 15-25% (assume it scales up with increasing sales).
Peek rev to Ligand greater than $30M./y So I guess we can be looking at over $200M/y of peek sales.
I will answer that for my case.
I do not trust management for good reason. The existing drugs arecommercially marginal. And the pipeline has some ability to produce a "decent" drug, but I do not see a true blockbuster,
All that factors into the company we look at today, and is why the stock is where it is.
That said, I see a company that can become a decent specialty pahrama and have solid enough numbers to deserve a PPS in the teens. And not really much risk here.
Nobody has discussed accounting for the CASI transaction. They received $10.5M, the cost is unclear and I will guess $3M (it is some fraction of the present asset value of the rights, and frankly China is not worth much in this game).
This may or may not be accrued. If not accrued, it will be a lump some plus to GAAP earnings of say $7M, which would likely be enough to swing the books to black.
If accrued forwards, they will have very little effect on the numbers.
It is possible that they will "game" the accounting and assign a much larger cost basis than is rational. The advantage of that would be a one time hit this Q, but marginally better numbers thereon out.
As far as numbers, I will go with $48M revs and GAAP E of +.05/s. A total guess.
Enterprise value is just market cap + debt - cash. Since Market Cap is what you really mean by PPS, then all you are saying is that CAT has debt.
You can look at P/E, or EnterpriseValue/EBITA. But these numbers are certainly not out of whack.
Do you want them to prematurely break the blind on the trial just for investors? You do understand that doing so risks the trial?
Though I believe ENTA is worth north of $60 by spring, you have to be careful about using P/E ratios on this type investment. A DCF model is MUCH more rational.
The reason is that the vast majority of their revs are part of a single drug that will have milestones, then quickly hit peek sales, then decline (over some uncertain time frame). Even the second gen HCV agent just tweeks this a bit.
Given the huge pop, the ability to hold anywhere near $7 surprised me. I expected a drop back to the mid-low 6's.
So I see a very strong chart.
Even if true, there is no reason to believe that ExpressScripts was paying list for the GILD product.
The current plan is to wait on data from the other P2 (in soft tissue) that is just starting.
The good news is that pain studies are quick. The just completed study (N=333) took about 8 months from start of recruiting till data, the soft tissue study is only N = 200. So I would hope to see a P3 being scheduled about tis time next year (assuming all goes well). They have made clear that in the meantime, they will be preparing to run the trial.
The cardio data (for whatever that is worth) is also schedule for late 2015. So I suspect it is sleepy time here for a while.
Correction, looks like they will be looking at the IRAK4 agent in lymphomas.
Aurgene's pattent and some other papers indicated anti autoimmune as the purpose, but there is some comonality here. Rituxan for example is used in both settings.
Roche almost certainly would have bought the entire company, but a chunk of inside money did not want to part with all of their investment.
BTW, kool is either a troll or an idiot. Probably best to not respond to it.
CLF sells virtually no thermal coal. They do sell a little metaluergic coal, but that is still about break even.
But ignorance is bliss, so that is good for you.
Be glad it was not 2 years ago (12/21/2012 and the Mayan calendar). :-)
Still have some hope it could be earlier though.
Yeah, MON manufactured agent orange for the US Military. But it was the government that elected to just dump this toxic compound by air over populated areas. It was always known to be quite toxic.
If you are the type who wants to rant about every supplier to any military, then so be it. But otherwise this is an issue with the US government.
By law, the FDA is not allowed to release any information on drugs being approved until they are approved. This even includes basic things such as the PDUFA date.
The one exception is in case of an Advisory Committee, which is not planned in this case (er only know that fact because of the lack of an adcom posting)
Up almost 20%. during the 2008-2012 recession.
Since you call falling oil prices as rising prices, and any change to any metric is "bullish", it is really hard to explain anything.
Never let reality get in the way of your worldview.