My bad, I tend to be a bit US centric (that is where the money usually is after all). But a quick estimate looks like they could easily sell an extra $500M in Japan and S Korea in the gastric indication (guessing that 25% are HER2+).
And Gatsby does have plenty of sites over there (and the Japan sites almost all fully enrolled already), so I presume they plan on the trial being sufficient for a Japan label expansion (S Korea will follow Japan and the rest of Asia is near worthless).
Good luck with your options.
We need Marianna (front line MBC use) bad. Due this Q. Not impossible if numbers are solid we could see a jump in sales even before the sBLA.
Gatsby (gastric) next year will also help, but that might not be a large indication (how many gastric cancers are HER2+?).
Earnings for airlines are always fairly in line with estimates. Sine they pre announce core revenue and fuesl costs, it really is not hard for the analysts to be on target.
The only real question will be what the predict for Q4. The assumption would be continued slight weakness in Europe, a meltdown in Africa, solid domestic and meh for the rest.
The Ebola thing floating around is a blip. I would play such by buying any such dips (s this has been). A year from now people will not remember it.
A day trader / swing trader might have a different view, but I don't play that game.
You do realize that Roache is trialing T-DM1 + Perjeta in Mariane and many other rials?
You do realize that Perjeta only works in conjunction with trastuzumab (whether Herceptin or T-DM1).
You do realize the Perjeta plus Hercptin regime also requires Doxy (somewhat toxic to say the least), while T-DM1 plus Perjeta does not?
You do realize this is old news?
I thought not.
Too sleepy for any real comments, but 2 quick remarks.
"biobetter" is becoming a BS marketing term for non substitutable biosimilars. Yes, I understand the real concept, but Teva will say what they want to say.
Also, people should realize that "non-inferiority" does not mean what it sounds like. It means that the trial showed the drug to be "about as effective as" the other.. The drug might still be better for other reasons (AEs for example). I kind of suspect the 2012 trial will be an NI trial, so just bringing this up now.
Back on the real point, thanks for the thread (you and tartia)
Oh, I have no problem believing that Raj's statements will prove to be true (though potential blockbuster for the GCSF agent might be a stretch). But the market will put little credit into them until proven out.
On the good side it does make for buying opportunities as we wait.
wrt treating without pert, that is what the 3rd arm of Marianne is for. Would certainly be a commercial boost if pert is not really beneficial on top of Kadcyla.
A disgruntled ex-TLON long I presume?
If marquibo does well, you have a .50/s payment coming (I presume the full $1.00/s is not possible) , which is more than you would have seen if they did not sell. It is not a big drug, and never would have made TLON profitable.
If marquibo flops, you would have had zilch, and this way have something.
The rest of TLON is/was a joke.
Because your post is junk science.
Ebola is NOT very contagious. That is why despite numerous outbreaks over at least 3 decades (and presumably much longer) it has never spread much. The only reason it spreads to the few it does is because of dreadful conditions it that part of the world. In the US (or any other developed nation) it has no chance of spreading.
You compare it to AIDS, and that is a good starting sport. They are about equally difficult to contract from another human. But the difference is AIDS has many years, even decades where it can be spread from somebody with no signs of sickness. Ebola has only a few days or weeks, and the infected person is obviously extremely sick.
If by some 1 in a million chance somebody did catch it, that is a single other victim. For that person to spread it is another 1 in a million.
Your post is simply based on ignorance and fear mongering of the media.
And one last point. You are vastly more likely to die by being run over by an ambulance. So I assume you think it would be wrong to rush a lover one of yours to the hospital?
Why 9 thumbs down? Because most people to not bother with such posts. But I will take the time to make it 10.
Not that it matters much, but I would put the earliest date at "enrollment complete" + 84 + "slop", where "slop" is delay until treatment. I suspect your date comes from adding in the 20 day follow-up, which I believe is a mistake, as that is running from the last GCSF dosing (day 2 of cycle 4) for the remainder of that 21 day cycle. Thus, at day 84 from first dose it is truly over.
And it certainly was not everybody that trips the timeline, only the last few enrolled would matter, others completed long ago.
Anyway, I am certainly not the impatient type. As a kid I waited until 5AM to get up on Christmas morning :-)
Trial should be over by now. I would think the data set is reasonable simple (AEs and blood-work only).
Another drug in the (hoped for) "marginally better" crowd that SPPI is addicted to, but good numbers here could be a mover.
Where are you seeing $4/s FCF? It's been negative the last 2 Qs, and even if (as I expect) it swings back to the green, it will be nowhere near that number.
If they can get anything of note out of the Canadian disasters, use that to pay down the debt.
Given that they have a #$%$ balance sheet, the buyback is absurd. I suspect "they" are more interested in gaming the stock PPS so they can exit at a modest loss.
Hell, they suspended it within 2 weeks of starting enrollment. So yeah, certainly not AEs.
Sounds like Riche should get a 5 yard penalty for false start or illegal procedure :-)
I seriously doubt the patents will hold.
How on Earth can using the L iso of a racemic mix ever be non-obvious?
Mid Dec. would be the date to pencil in. But the FDA has been fast on some other HEP-C drugs, so do not be surprised to hear from them in the fall.
Regardless, this is not the real play here. Virtually everybody expects the drug combo to be approved. The question for valuation is on the commercial side where it goes head-to-head with the GILD combo coming out in a few months. So instead of the common "pop and drop" that one sees in cancer drugs, I would expect a modest reaction the the FDA decision, but then a nice run up through Q1 '15 as we see revenue numbers.