Given how the conversion works, CLV is clearly tied to CLF. One can approximate CLV reasonable well by selling a $29 Jan 16 call against it, and buying some $35 Jan 16 [this is from memory, I forget the exact numbers]. The money gained from this would aprox the CLV dividends, and the resulting shares in 2 years would be the same either way.
So given they are that similar, I would hesitate to try this.
Another solution is to use an out of the money call to stay long while you wait out the 30 days. Get one a couple bucks out with a far future date should work reasonably (look for an active issue to avoid excessive transaction cost).
I can live w/o the cigs and welfare, but the rest works for me.
A second home though? We would need some serious global warming for that to happen :-)
I wish you the best (as I have a good bit long also, I really just wish myself the best).
But 35% in a single stock? I would think 35% in the broader sector would be a bit much.
I also agree that $3B is a better number to pencil in for now.
WRT an ABBV buyout, I suspect such would be driven by the backup drug already partnered to ABBV. If ABBV sees that being big, then they would want to buy back the profit split with ENTA.
Have no clue about the NVS HVC drug.
Am now a semi-skeptic on the antibiotic. It is a new version of an existing class (macrocodes). My concerns are:
A) They had an earlier agent, EDP-420 (modithomycin) that seams to have failed. Presumably the new version is better, but they have never said why (AFAIK).
B) There is at least one other next gen macrolide in P3 trials (cempra's solithromycin), so this is not a wide open playing field.
Regardless, 450 alone is enough to return a nice profit here.
Re: NVS drug
The ORR rate is unclear as they were using P1 data (not the present trial data which is unknown).
OTOH, I do not think NVS is close to an FDA submission. Their trial had a similar structure to the Erivedge trial, which yielded only a conditional (accelerated) approval.
Here is the catch. Once a drug is approved, a "me too" is not eligible for accelerated approval. Thus NVS would either have to run a true P3, or try for second line (after Erivedge).
So it is still years away, IMO.
It's hard to know. NVS called the trial a pivotal P2. This is usually used when despite being a P2, the trial could be sufficient for a submission, which would put it on the market next year.
BUT, there are a few big open questions.
A) The trial could well be a "success" but not enough for a submission.
B) If they were looking at an accelerated approval, erivedge could have changed the picture (as now patients do have an option).
So I would wait until NVS discusses this, don't know when.
One could/should call any novel agent a long shot to some extent. That is the game.
The aag- subgroup is still the majority in a large indication, so the drug does have home run potential.
But I agree, the mek's are the main reason for being here. Despite being partnered, ARAY has good terms on selumetnib and great terms on the BMS drug (whose new name I forget). With 3 P3 trials each, and dozens of backup / expansion trials, prospects look good.
I view it as the MEK's make for a good reasonably safe play, while still having a chance for something really big down the road.
That is when the big hand is on 12 and the little hand is on 10 if that helps.
They posted several pages of guidance. Broken down per segment. Revenue and cost. Overhead. Cap Ex. Price sensitivity.
These are the numbers the analysts want, because they will plug their own IO pricing model in to generate a final number.
Sorry if this is too complicated for you.
A) They will certainly take a revenue hit. They will break it out though, so analysts can see what the WX cost.
B) The earnings hit will not be that bad. The per ASM numbers actually get better (higher loads, plus emergency bookings).
C) Q1 is traditionally a losing Q for airlines. They were looking for a profit this time, and I suspect they will still see such (but I have made no attempt to guess the numbers).
D) Do you really think you are the only person who knows this tidbit of info? It is well priced in as of now.
Please stick around and post again in April.
You and bricks need to #$%$ more often, today is the first decent day in quite a while around here.
Dividends? I assume that was just a joke.
DAL does not have to pay the IRS because they have looses in previous years to offset the earnings (for several more years). BUT they just changed their accounting (last Q) such that they now report the nominal tax as a hit against earnings.
Japanese subjects. So this would be the first step towards an approval in Japan (with rest of Asia likely to follow along).
That per see is not worth a hell of a lot, but it is of course a plus that Merck see the value in spending money on more trials.
The Roche Y '13 report is up on there website
K sales for the year were about 220M Swiss. Not much from EU/Japan (but they did say they have started to sell in 2 countries, so hopefully it will pick up some next year).
H sales were over 6B Swiss.
It's valid. ETrade accounts will have it if you know somebody with such.
The first sentence is:
"We recommend using a likely short squeeze in CLF to establish fresh short positions"
What a joke. No real research analyst would talk about a short squeeze here.
I could point out some real BS numbers in his reports if you want. But he cooks some stuff so bad it makes my dinners look good in comparison.
Nathan is just so cute when he plays with his toys.
I wonder what he will be when he grows up?
A) Used car salesman
Kind of an OT reply, but the DOW formula is really archaic. Overweights stocks just because the PPS (not market cap) is high.
They should replace it with a standard index, same stocks and rebased to have the same value at the switch.
We no longer have to calculate it with pencil and paer as they did in the 20's.
Very good news.
Also on the forecast, they see '14 revenue flat, but miners down and construction up. That is positive for CLF as it means customers are buying more while other miners are slowing down on expansion.
Really surprised to see this number (and quite happy, long both CLF and CAT).
Hope today shakes off the nasty vibes from last week :-)