Be glad it was not 2 years ago (12/21/2012 and the Mayan calendar). :-)
Still have some hope it could be earlier though.
OK wonder boy.
AF did not call it an SPPI trial. The tweet had a hash tag of $SPPI followed by "Trial of z..". Kind of obvious in the original tweet, so I assume your post here was a deliberate attempt to misquote and/or misinterpret AF? Given that it was a Zevalin trial, the SPPI hash tag seams kind of reasonable.
As far as "suspended" vs "enrollment suspended", that is funny. How else would one suspend a trial, put it in the freezer?
A) In the last 3 years or so, I all ever read from merimack was "sell", and whenever the price dropped he gloated.about his trading powers. You can not trade by selling only. In the rise from under $3 to over $6 he never posted buy.
B) After the long winter, we now have "springtime for data for ARRY". For good or bad, the trials reading out over the next year are all that count..
Perhaps in being specific for Folate Receptor Alpha, thus matching IMGN's ADC. [I believe the ECYT drug and imaging agent target both type folate receptors.]
Even w/o such difference, it is probably best to have ones own test so as not to need to rely on a potential competitor.
Surprised they had to go out of house for this though, as opposed to just radio-doping the mab portion of 853 themselves. Perhaps patents?
Your gross to net calc is off.
Last Q CBST had gross sales $320M and net sales of $265M that is under 20% discount. So ted would need about $160M/y gross to put the CVRs in play.
As to good or bad deal, that is a more complicated question. If you remember the price of Triius was swinging around a modest amount. I sold out when the deal was announced, but bough back in when I was effectively picking up the CVRs for around twenty cents. I will take the odds.
A deal is only good or bad based on it's price.
From a regulatory perspective, this does not matter. If either K+P or K is better than H+taxane then and sBLA will be approved.
From a commercial perspective, it matters little. Taxanes are not exactly a user friendly drug. If a doc/patient has a valid choice, most will go without the taxane.
You might or might not be right that the triple is the "best" choice, but that probably has a harder road towards approval (or label expansion). You would need 4 or 5 arms in Marianne for such. BTW, it is certainly very possible that adding taxanes into the mix is counterproductive. You already have one chemo (the DM1) and another might be too much.
My bad, I tend to be a bit US centric (that is where the money usually is after all). But a quick estimate looks like they could easily sell an extra $500M in Japan and S Korea in the gastric indication (guessing that 25% are HER2+).
And Gatsby does have plenty of sites over there (and the Japan sites almost all fully enrolled already), so I presume they plan on the trial being sufficient for a Japan label expansion (S Korea will follow Japan and the rest of Asia is near worthless).
Good luck with your options.
We need Marianna (front line MBC use) bad. Due this Q. Not impossible if numbers are solid we could see a jump in sales even before the sBLA.
Gatsby (gastric) next year will also help, but that might not be a large indication (how many gastric cancers are HER2+?).
Earnings for airlines are always fairly in line with estimates. Sine they pre announce core revenue and fuesl costs, it really is not hard for the analysts to be on target.
The only real question will be what the predict for Q4. The assumption would be continued slight weakness in Europe, a meltdown in Africa, solid domestic and meh for the rest.
The Ebola thing floating around is a blip. I would play such by buying any such dips (s this has been). A year from now people will not remember it.
A day trader / swing trader might have a different view, but I don't play that game.
You do realize that Roache is trialing T-DM1 + Perjeta in Mariane and many other rials?
You do realize that Perjeta only works in conjunction with trastuzumab (whether Herceptin or T-DM1).
You do realize the Perjeta plus Hercptin regime also requires Doxy (somewhat toxic to say the least), while T-DM1 plus Perjeta does not?
You do realize this is old news?
I thought not.
Too sleepy for any real comments, but 2 quick remarks.
"biobetter" is becoming a BS marketing term for non substitutable biosimilars. Yes, I understand the real concept, but Teva will say what they want to say.
Also, people should realize that "non-inferiority" does not mean what it sounds like. It means that the trial showed the drug to be "about as effective as" the other.. The drug might still be better for other reasons (AEs for example). I kind of suspect the 2012 trial will be an NI trial, so just bringing this up now.
Back on the real point, thanks for the thread (you and tartia)
Oh, I have no problem believing that Raj's statements will prove to be true (though potential blockbuster for the GCSF agent might be a stretch). But the market will put little credit into them until proven out.
On the good side it does make for buying opportunities as we wait.
wrt treating without pert, that is what the 3rd arm of Marianne is for. Would certainly be a commercial boost if pert is not really beneficial on top of Kadcyla.
A disgruntled ex-TLON long I presume?
If marquibo does well, you have a .50/s payment coming (I presume the full $1.00/s is not possible) , which is more than you would have seen if they did not sell. It is not a big drug, and never would have made TLON profitable.
If marquibo flops, you would have had zilch, and this way have something.
The rest of TLON is/was a joke.
Because your post is junk science.
Ebola is NOT very contagious. That is why despite numerous outbreaks over at least 3 decades (and presumably much longer) it has never spread much. The only reason it spreads to the few it does is because of dreadful conditions it that part of the world. In the US (or any other developed nation) it has no chance of spreading.
You compare it to AIDS, and that is a good starting sport. They are about equally difficult to contract from another human. But the difference is AIDS has many years, even decades where it can be spread from somebody with no signs of sickness. Ebola has only a few days or weeks, and the infected person is obviously extremely sick.
If by some 1 in a million chance somebody did catch it, that is a single other victim. For that person to spread it is another 1 in a million.
Your post is simply based on ignorance and fear mongering of the media.
And one last point. You are vastly more likely to die by being run over by an ambulance. So I assume you think it would be wrong to rush a lover one of yours to the hospital?
Why 9 thumbs down? Because most people to not bother with such posts. But I will take the time to make it 10.