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WebMD Health Corp. Message Board

fiberbull 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 23, 2015 11:54 AM Member since: Jan 12, 2000
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  • fiberbull fiberbull Jan 23, 2015 11:54 AM Flag

    The company's debt is not due till late 2017 and 2018, and the convenant restrictions are pretty light here. ABL is not the type of facility that wil bankrupt NES. IMHO, there is no bankruptcy coming soon. Possibly a bankruptcy in late 2017, if oil doesn't rebound a bit by then. But what if oil rebounds by then? Personally, I see a 50% move in this stock very soon, as shorts have had a field day, and while the outlook is moribund, it's not a $0 situation just yet.

  • Reply to

    I have no idea what to do here

    by lowerlevel4 Jan 23, 2015 9:41 AM
    fiberbull fiberbull Jan 23, 2015 11:45 AM Flag

    The ABL facility won't bankrupt NES. The banks will work something out with the company. Plus the debt is due in late 2017, and the other bonds held by investors are due in 2018. NES has plenty of time to hope for some turnaround. There is no reason for bankruptcy any time soon. Selling here is foolish. Oil has bottomed.

  • Reply to

    by stjudeprayer Oct 30, 2014 7:50 PM
    fiberbull fiberbull Oct 31, 2014 6:44 AM Flag

    Hello, I'm here. This is one of the best stocks I ever invested in. Keeps giving and it still seems substantially undervalued. They are throwing off nearly $70 million in cash a year now. Stock should be 50% higher, right now.

  • fiberbull fiberbull Oct 31, 2014 6:41 AM Flag

    Yes, I agree, $3 is a fair near term price target as that represents around 10X unlevered free cash flow in my estimation. The question here is what the financials will look like once topline growth resumes, which should happen next year, as Meaningful Use Stage 2 implementations increase. There is good operating leverage in this business model, so with growth free cash flow should increase dramatically, and the company will get a higher multiple. The trouble with MRGE of course is that their client base is slow to move on new implementations and generally slow to invest in anything new technology-related. So the sales process here is lumpy and quite unpredictable. But, I think they have a solid base now.

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