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fiberbull 7 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 46 minutes ago Member since: Jan 12, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Current state of affairs at KWK

    by bodava4 8 hours ago
    fiberbull fiberbull 1 hour 46 minutes ago Flag

    I wish I could agree with you, but the bond prices tell a totally different story and suggest that Glenn could care less about his 30mm shares and has some other plan in mind. The fact that Thomas Darden suddenly resigned from the Board is the "big tell" here. I agree KWK has no risk of insolvency in the short-term, but after analyzing this dozens of times over the last 2 months, my instincts tell me the Darden's don't give a hoot about the stock price or other shareholders. Wouldn't surprise me if they figured out some way to separate HRB from the KWK into some sort of JV which they will own, and leave KWK with little if anything. You don't hire multiple investment banks and advisors unless you are working on some sort of complex deal that will ultimately screw tons of people.

  • Reply to

    Bond Prices Panic?

    by fiberbull 22 hours ago
    fiberbull fiberbull 18 hours ago Flag

    I wonder if the Darden family also holds a chunk of the bonds? I really find CEO Darden's actions inexplicable. He is either a total idiot or is engaged in some sort of scheme to take this over cheaply in some fashion. Right now, I'm in the camp that he is an idiot, but I'm getting worried, because nobody could be that incompetent.

  • Reply to

    Bond Prices Panic?

    by fiberbull 22 hours ago
    fiberbull fiberbull 18 hours ago Flag

    That's exactly what i thought it meant also, so I'm surprised the stock and the 2016 bonds have been plumetting. The 2019's do not want a bankruptcy and they effectively control the company.

  • Reply to

    Bond Prices Panic?

    by fiberbull 22 hours ago
    fiberbull fiberbull 19 hours ago Flag

    Irregardless of illiquidity, there should be buyers of this under 60. The fact that there are only sellers, means that bonds are quite worried and are quite fearful of not recovering their money. I just think the action is strange and I'm trying to figure out what is going on.

    I don't know if this is my first time posting on KWK or not, but I've been invested for some time now and have averaged down here, as assuming the Darden's are not engaged in some vast conspiracy to screw shareholders, I just don't see how KWK goes bankrupt. It doesn't even seem like bankruptcy is a good option for the debt holders, the majority of whom certainly would rather get their interest than takeover KWK and try to market the assets.

  • Reply to

    menkes..

    by starteam003 Sep 18, 2014 5:29 PM
    fiberbull fiberbull 20 hours ago Flag

    Debt free? Who cares if they are debt free or not. People have this fear of debt on the corporate level that is ridiculous. As long as the interest rate is reasonable and you have the cash flow to cover the interest sufficiently, a company can hold debt and should not be debt free. Using debt wisely is part of the way you create value for shareholders. Plus, EMITF is basically a real estate company because of it' holdings in Plaza, so it will never be fully out of debt. No real estate company operates without debt.

  • Reply to

    menkes..

    by starteam003 Sep 18, 2014 5:29 PM
    fiberbull fiberbull 21 hours ago Flag

    The PPS will go up as asset sales are realized, particularly with regard to the Plaza real estate, where much of the value resides. Once the market has confidence that they are proceeding with asset sales are market prices, the stock will recover. Despite the bearish comments here, the stock price movements in the last few weeks are meaningless. The stock could easily go back to $4 quickly. In fact, the news coming out of the company has been good. They are monetizing assets as fast as they can. In terms of the debt, if you read the last financial report carefully, and remove all the one time charges and non-cash expenses, like depreciation, they are basically are meeting interest expense. So I really don't think the debt will be a problem, especially as cash comes in from asset sales.

    Personally, I think the stock will start making a sustained recovery next quarter, as Plaza has already written everything down to firesale prices, and so the balance sheet represents a nadir. It's all up from here.

    Good luck.

  • KWK bonds, particularly the 2016's continued to fall and sold yesterday in the mid 50's. This suggests that the 2016 bondholders do not believe they will be made whole. This implies a very bad outcome for the equity, despite all the bullish commentary here. My confusion is what exactly is this panic about? KWK really will only face extreme pressure in late 2015. So the company really does have time to close some deals, raise capital, and take care of the looming springing maturities. Why the panic? There really shouldn't be this type of pressure. It seems manufactured. Unless the Darden family plans to really screw shareholders, I don't understand the movement in the stock or the bonds. So I guess the real question is what is the motive of the Dardens? Do they really have shareholders best interests in mind or do they plan to purposely bankrupt KWK (as the bonds implie) and then buy it back in bankruptcy at dirt cheap prices? Are they partnering with some bond holders on this type of maneuver?

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