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WebMD Health Corp. Message Board

fiberbull 114 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 9, 2014 4:02 PM Member since: Jan 12, 2000
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  • Reply to

    re: new 13D

    by fiberbull Apr 9, 2014 3:38 PM
    fiberbull fiberbull Apr 9, 2014 4:02 PM Flag

    It seems like Fisher did sell a portion of his converts to Cannel, which is quite strange, as this is not alot of money for either of them.

  • Reply to

    re: new 13D

    by fiberbull Apr 9, 2014 3:38 PM
    fiberbull fiberbull Apr 9, 2014 3:54 PM Flag

    The 13D-A was just filed today, so I'm not sure how you can have noticed it last week.

  • fiberbull by fiberbull Apr 9, 2014 3:38 PM Flag

    New 13D out today. This is surely the strangest bunch of transactions I have ever seen in a stock. It looks like Fischer sold some of the converts to CANNELL CAPITAL. Seems very odd the way this was conducted. Somebody is playing games with the stock.

  • Reply to

    Q1 14 should be good, following Q4 13 momentum..

    by l8gin1 Apr 8, 2014 8:59 PM
    fiberbull fiberbull Apr 9, 2014 11:57 AM Flag

    The weather impact is priced in and it's over, as is Q1. The stock market could care less about what happened in the Q1 anymore. The question is the forward outlook into 2014 and 2015. And it will be very, very good.

  • Reply to

    Marxe and Greenhouse Are Manipulating The Stock

    by greendome2 Apr 4, 2014 12:16 PM
    fiberbull fiberbull Apr 4, 2014 1:40 PM Flag

    Yep, great manipulation. Since Marxe and Greenhouse started selling at $6, the stock has roughly doubled. I'm sure everyone is quite concerned about the fact that the stock has only doubled.

  • Reply to

    PTC Extension Bill

    by jb.windturbine Apr 4, 2014 1:47 AM
    fiberbull fiberbull Apr 4, 2014 10:14 AM Flag

    Also, I should add that Obama wants a permanent PTC. So the renewal of the PTC for 2 years is the "quash" Republicans are aiming for. Actually that's the way politics should work. It's called compromise.

  • Reply to

    PTC Extension Bill

    by jb.windturbine Apr 4, 2014 1:47 AM
    fiberbull fiberbull Apr 4, 2014 10:11 AM Flag

    First of all, nearly all the wind power is in Republican states, so to squash PTC because you don't like Obama is totally moronic and terrible politics. Secondly, I'd love to see the day Republicans squash a bill that actually lowers taxes for businesses because they hate the President. What's next Republicans will want to expand Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid?

  • Reply to

    PTC Extension Bill

    by jb.windturbine Apr 4, 2014 1:47 AM
    fiberbull fiberbull Apr 4, 2014 7:48 AM Flag

    I disagree. There was a fear the PTC would not even make it into the bill. But, then it got it in with overwhelming support. This bill (at least as far at PTC) is as good as law now, although of course it's not technically the law yet. They'll sign it in November. PTC has strong support from both parties. They're not going to strike it out of the extenders. And you can bet that Republicans want a tax extenders package passed quickly as the only thing they stand for is extending tax breaks. If they can't pass an extended tax breaks package, what are they doing?

  • Reply to

    BWEN Don't Fall for Fake Out

    by fiberbull Apr 3, 2014 11:56 AM
    fiberbull fiberbull Apr 4, 2014 7:43 AM Flag

    Yes, I agree. This means we have another 3 years at least of sold out projects for BWEN and gearing will improve. So the stock will continue to rise for quite awhile. I don't personaly see any risks here now (yes slight risk some nutcases in Congress destroy the tax extenders bill before its official law, but that's very, very unlikely as Republicans are supposed to help lower taxes for business, so they won't squash this bill).

  • fiberbull fiberbull Apr 4, 2014 7:38 AM Flag

    Of course this takes some time to approve into law, as it always does. November is probably right. but that's not the point really. The issue here was that wind energy was first cut from the bill, which was very bad for BWEN. But then it was included again and the vote to repeal it was beaten handily. I think it's obvious that PTC will be extended now, and it's really just a formality to go thru the process of approval into law with the usual theatrics of government. In the end, it is probably 95% that PTC will get renewed now. Very good news for BWEN.

  • fiberbull fiberbull Apr 3, 2014 8:20 PM Flag

    Today's action was some selling on worries that PTC would not be included in the actual bill, and more selling from traders who get scared and don't know what they are investing in. Then there was risk that bill wouldn't get approved.

    However, there is no doubt a 2-year extension for PTC at this point is a big surprise (most in the industry were thinking this would happen later this year) and it is a huge, huge positive for BWEN.

    I expect BWEN stock to go back to the highs within a few weeks or less.

  • fiberbull fiberbull Apr 3, 2014 12:43 PM Flag

    bill gets approved. Wind market keeps ups momentum and BWEN goes back to highs. Will happen in next few weeks. Crazy that anyone would sell now. Best is ahead for BWEN.

  • Hey folks, the tax bill now INCLUDES the wind energy credit. This means more orders for BWEN. Company will now sell out 2015 and then move to sell out 2016. By then gearing will also improve. Nothing but blue skies ahead for BWEN.

  • Reply to

    "New tax bill includes wind energy credit"

    by workfromwork Apr 3, 2014 11:39 AM
    fiberbull fiberbull Apr 3, 2014 11:52 AM Flag

    Exactly. This is huge news. Market is faking out people. BWEN going much, much higher after market understands the news. PTC will be extended till end of 2015.

  • fiberbull fiberbull Apr 1, 2014 5:09 PM Flag

    It closed. See the SEC filing today. Fischer was issued another $1.5 million convertible at $0.66 on 4/1. This is the second tranche of the financing.

  • fiberbull fiberbull Apr 1, 2014 5:03 PM Flag

    These are not new shares. Unbelievable how people on this board post nonsense. These shares were issued already in the debt restructuring. But, in order to sell these shares the sellers file a registration statement with the SEC. Once again, these shares are not new. Total shares outstanding is around 550 million post the debt restructuring. Everybody who actually invests real money knows this. Read the F-1 filing.

  • Reply to

    Free Cash Flow: $5 stock price

    by fiberbull Apr 1, 2014 10:03 AM
    fiberbull fiberbull Apr 1, 2014 11:06 AM Flag

    I'm not sure what you mean by "expense of paper", but they don't have to issue shares to refinance. In fact, very, very few companies issue share on a refinance, and only those in extremely dire circumstances issue shares (like UNTK last year). But, UNTK is in a different position now, and it's doubtful they will need to issue any shares to refinance, especially considering how attractive the EBITDA is to lenders..

  • Let's talk free cash flow here for 2014, to get a proper stock price.

    UNTK did around $45 million in EBITDA in 2013. They paid a whopping $30 million in interest, spent $2.4 million on cap-x, and $8 million capital leases. In 2014, leases should go down by about $5 million (they are moving towards operating leases), and interest will go up by a similar amount, so it's a wash. Basically, UNTK is doing around $0.20 per share in free cash flow, even with obscenely high interest rates that most people don't even pay on their credit cards.

    With a refinance, they can probably knock off $10 million in interest expenses annually, which would bring free cash flow to around $14 million a year. Let's be conservative and call it $10 million a year in free cash flow with a refi. That's around $0.50 per share. Which leads to my price target of $5 within the next 12 months.

  • Reply to

    boooooooooooooooom

    by realshazard Mar 31, 2014 6:43 PM
    fiberbull fiberbull Apr 1, 2014 9:52 AM Flag

    UNTK's interest rates are obscene (over 15%). Surely there are many funds who would be more than willing to lend to them at much lower rates, given the EBITDA here. I suspect there are or will be many people knocking out their doors to do a refi. I'm surprised it hasn't happened yet, but perhaps management is being mum for strategic reasons. The current lenders have no say in a refi, they'll be taken out, as there is no reason why UNTK can't raise funds to pay off the current loan sharks.

    Once the debt is refinanced, I dare say, UNTK is a $7 stock.

  • Reply to

    boooooooooooooooom

    by realshazard Mar 31, 2014 6:43 PM
    fiberbull fiberbull Mar 31, 2014 6:53 PM Flag

    I agree somewhat. Their interest payments are absurd. But, that's where the opportunity is. I can't see how they won't refinance this debt and bring interest expenses down a ton, which would help the stock. I'm not sure why they haven't made progress on this yet, but they've had alot going on. As for the remainder of the business, it generates a ton of cash. $45 million in EBITDA, more than covers the insane interest expenses and capital leases. All they need to do here is refinance this shark loan.

WBMD
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