Tue, Oct 21, 2014, 1:31 PM EDT - U.S. Markets close in 2 hrs 29 mins

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

WebMD Health Corp. Message Board

fiberbull 43 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 10, 2014 6:51 AM Member since: Jan 12, 2000
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    Numbers to support $50 per share

    by fiberbull Oct 10, 2014 2:50 AM
    fiberbull fiberbull Oct 10, 2014 6:51 AM Flag

    I'm not sure you understand that there is as of yet no cure or vaccine that works for Ebola. So we to slow down the transmission of the disease first and foremost, otherwise it will grow exponentially. That means getting more and more medical personnel into the effected areas and getting the people there the care they need. PPE's are absolutely necessary for all personnel, as well as all the residents who will come in contact with those who are sick with Ebola. So, of course, PPE won't cure Ebola, but it will certainly help contain/slow down Ebola, which is the first step in stopping it.

  • Let's do some math here folks to show why the price of LAKE is still not that crazy. The demand for personal protective equipment (PPE's) is about to go simply parabolic and LAKE is one of a handful of global operators that can meet this demand with high quality and tested PPEs.

    The numbers: CDC estimates over 500K Ebola cases by January 2015 at the low end. Even if they are off by half (and it's possible they are underestimating), you are talking 250K cases by January, which is 30X the current level. Estimates are that the industry is currently using 300K personal protective equipment (PPE's) a month (due to assumptions that each medical worker uses around 7 a day). A 15-fold increase in PPE usage to manage the 30X increase in Ebola, would be 4.5 million garments a month, which at $75 a PPE would be over $300 million a month for the PPE industry.

    So it could cost nearly $1 billion just to get enough PPE to contain Ebola in just the next few months under conservative assumptions. If LAKE gets 5% of that market, you are talking $50 million in additional sales, which at 30% margins, this is $15 million that goes to straight to the bottom line. There are only 6 million shares outstanding, so you are talking around $2.50 per share in earnings. 20X that is $50 per share.

    In closing, I would note that the numbers above are conservative and assume all the governments of the world work together to contain the virus. Unfortunately, it still seems like they are acting too slow.

  • fiberbull fiberbull Oct 6, 2014 2:22 PM Flag

    Nice summary. My hope is that after a few more asset sales, EMITF, just executes a few transactions to roll all these subsidiaries into one company, so it's no longer a holding company per se and the presentation of results is much more transparent. I'm not sure how they can do it exactly, but I'm certain the bankers can figure it out and I'm sure that's the long term plan here. I really don't think anyone believes the holding company structure has much value anymore.

  • Reply to

    $6.50 tomorrow... hazmat suits ? LOL

    by apfappa Oct 2, 2014 10:51 PM
    fiberbull fiberbull Oct 3, 2014 6:48 AM Flag

    LOL, government's and hospitals worldwide are not going to buy hazmat suits on Ebay. They put out bids to suppliers directly.

  • Reply to

    $50 price target

    by fiberbull Oct 2, 2014 9:32 PM
    fiberbull fiberbull Oct 3, 2014 6:45 AM Flag

    I am well aware of the company's margins and the stock is very cheap even with those numbers. You seem to also not be aware that the company's tangible book value is close to $8, and LAKE owns alot of real estate, which is probably understated on the books.

    As for the margins, the gross margin has improved dramatically this year and is now at 32%, which is a historical high for the company. The EBITDA margins have still been depressed and not kept up with gross margins, due to issues in Brazil and frankly a very bloated expense line. However, the EBITDA margins are also improving and last quarter on annualized basis LAKE is up to $8 million in annualized EBITDA. If you look at LAKE's historical numbers, they should be able to get this number much higher with more operating efficiency. Even using a conservative $10 million in EBITDA, as a more normalized number and then you see that LAKE is trading at an EV/EBITDA of 6, which is low for a company that is about to start growing again. I think a 10X mutiple is more warranted in this situation, especially since profits would be much higher for an acquirer, which gives you $15 on just the current business.

  • Reply to

    $50 price target

    by fiberbull Oct 2, 2014 9:32 PM
    fiberbull fiberbull Oct 2, 2014 9:33 PM Flag

    BTW, title should say $30 price target, but I'll take $50 also.

  • fiberbull by fiberbull Oct 2, 2014 9:32 PM Flag

    I have a $30 price target on LAKE. Here's the simple reason why: Even without the Ebola scare, LAKE's business has been improving as they restructure the Brazil operation and gain traction in other markets worldwide. LAKE's Enterprise Value is around $60 million with around $100 million in sales. A fair value for the business in a takeover would be around 1X to 1.5X EV/Sales or $15 - $23 . This is without any Ebola scare. As the Ebola scare will clearly necessitate a ramp up in ordering of hazmat and other protective clothing worldwide (CDC's letter today to hospital's across the US was replete with protective clothing warnings - so every hospital will be out soon buying this stuff), I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a sharp increase in sales at very high margins (since the manufacturing facilities will be operating at full capacity). At $30, you get 2X EV/Sales on just the base $100 million sales, so you are factoring in some increase in higher margin sales.

    This is my opinion only. Please do your own due diligence.

  • fiberbull fiberbull Oct 2, 2014 8:45 PM Flag

    Because it's smarter to buy the bonds, let the company go bankrupt, and then get all your shares back in bankruptcy cheaper when bondholders convert most of the debt to equity.

  • Reply to

    Kragujevac Plaza sold for $48 million

    by fiberbull Oct 2, 2014 11:33 AM
    fiberbull fiberbull Oct 2, 2014 4:00 PM Flag

    If this message is meant for me, then I would comment that I have not ignored EMITF's debt at all. The fact of the matter is that if the assets of EMITF were liquidated would cover the debt adequately and leave an equity value that is higher than the current value. At least that's my educated guess, and I believe the market will come around to that view soon also, as more asset sales come in like the one today.

  • Reply to

    Kragujevac Plaza sold for $48 million

    by fiberbull Oct 2, 2014 11:33 AM
    fiberbull fiberbull Oct 2, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    Ofir, you are right and he is wrong. You are not missing anything. This guy is living in the past. Plaza alone is worth at least $4 per share to EMITF, in my low estimation and that assumes liquidation of all assets over time.

  • Reply to

    Kragujevac Plaza sold for $48 million

    by fiberbull Oct 2, 2014 11:33 AM
    fiberbull fiberbull Oct 2, 2014 11:54 AM Flag

    With that kind of statement, it shows you are living in the past, and your posts have zero credibility. Again, if people want facts read the 3rd party appraisals that were filed as part of the bankruptcy. The question is not what happened here in the past with Zisser, but what the assets are worth now, minus the debt. With today's deal, the obvious conclusion is that the stock price is simply too low. I expect it to rebound.

  • Reply to

    Kragujevac Plaza sold for $48 million

    by fiberbull Oct 2, 2014 11:33 AM
    fiberbull fiberbull Oct 2, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    For those who want facts and are ready to ignore silly stock price fluctuations, please read thru the appraisals of Plaza's properties as mentioned in the previous message. Based on the fact, that Kragujevac sold at book, I'm willing to estimate that Plaza's real estate is worth at book (meaning if they liquidate) around $4 per share for EMITF. That's just Plaza. EMITF has other assets as we all know. Stock price is absurd.

  • Reply to

    Kragujevac Plaza sold for $48 million

    by fiberbull Oct 2, 2014 11:33 AM
    fiberbull fiberbull Oct 2, 2014 11:45 AM Flag

    I think you need to do your homework. All of the numbers are in the press release and you can also feel free to read the Cushman Wakefield and Baker Tilly appraisals of Plaza's real estate portfolio, which are public knowledge. The current stock price is ridiculously low.

  • fiberbull by fiberbull Oct 2, 2014 11:37 AM Flag

    Stock is now at nearly 50% of cash. That is simply ridiculous. Monsanto or some other large seed company could acquire this now and pay nothing for all the technology. New Chairman of the Board is from Monsanto.

  • People read the press release today and don't be fooled by this nonsensical sell off in EMITF on low volume. EMITF announced today that Plaza sold Kragujevac Plaza for around $48 million. The assets at EMITF are real and most likely very undervalued relative to the current stock valuation. Stock will begin to rebound as investors gain confidence in the asset sales.

  • fiberbull fiberbull Sep 30, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    Interest payment is meaningless. They can make the payment and file next month. Seriously, are you people really this attached to this stock to not see the truth? This is textbook cognitive dissonance. 2021 bonds now trading at 66. That's all you need to know now. None of the bonds expect to see their money back, how is the stock worth anything? It's not. KWK 's stock is worthless. Sell all rallies, which is just short covering.

  • Reply to

    KWK questions

    by michael_feng88 Sep 27, 2014 5:23 PM
    fiberbull fiberbull Sep 28, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    You judge this by looking at the bond prices, which signaled two weeks ago that KWK stock is worthless. If the 2016 bonds, which are obviously senior to the equity, do not believe they will recoup their investment, how is the stock worth anything? It's not. Anybody who looks at the situation objectively, can see this. But, I've grown tired at pointing out the obvious over the last 2 weeks. Please just don't be misled by the eternal optimists on this board who refuse to see the truth, and probably won't even if it hit them in the head. Unfortunately, nearly all the longs here made a mistake, but that's fine. You can't win them all. But, when you are wrong, you just take the loss and move on before the loss gets bigger. Sell KWK on all rallies. The stock is worth $0 and the Darden's don't care about any of the minority shareholders here. They'll come out OK in the end, you won't.

  • Reply to

    Patience is required

    by alphabetamaster Sep 22, 2014 8:00 PM
    fiberbull fiberbull Sep 23, 2014 6:16 AM Flag

    I wouldn't worry about the Darden family. They will certainly protect themselves adequately in a bankruptcy and remain as major shareholders of some of the main assets. That's why they hire teams of banks, advisors and lawyers. I'm willing to be they also own alot of the bonds also, which will give them a valuable seat at the bankruptcy table. It's highly doubtful they care about getting a great deal for anyone of us. If they did, they wouldn't have allowed this massive decline to happen in the first place, as logically there is no reason for it - they had options.

  • Reply to

    Patience is required

    by alphabetamaster Sep 22, 2014 8:00 PM
    fiberbull fiberbull Sep 23, 2014 6:10 AM Flag

    As someone who was long this stock for nearly 18 months and went from a large profit, to a huge loss, I sincerley hope nobody actually takes your post seriously. The time for patience has long gone and people need to wake up to the facts and protect their capital. Sell on rallies. The bonds are pricing a 99% change of bankruptcy here in the next 12 months (could be sooner). Horn River JV will not happen any time soon. If anybody wants to go long KWK, simply wait to see how things play out over the next few months. There will plenty of time to get back into this stock, if they can somehow wiggle their way out of the 2016's without bankrupting the company. At this time, this is very unlikely. By the way, the selling in the stock and bonds has nothing to do with HFT's. It's simply alot of investors realizing that this is a lost cause.

  • Reply to

    Just an Idea

    by all555american Sep 22, 2014 1:07 PM
    fiberbull fiberbull Sep 22, 2014 5:28 PM Flag

    The odds of bankruptcy are 99%, as per the bond prices. It will be a slow and painful process, though. KWK's only way out is a huge and sustainable jump in NG prices. Unfortunately, this is not happening.

WBMD
38.23+0.13(+0.34%)1:30 PMEDT

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.