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ONYX Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

fiborules 617 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 21, 2014 3:21 PM Member since: Apr 20, 2003
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  • fiborules by fiborules Nov 21, 2014 3:21 PM Flag

    All stocks ( companies ) have a fair value as well as a story .
    amazon is way overpriced yet the market believes in the story .
    Plug has a good story yet from years of losing money and issuing
    more shares to the market which has reduced shareholder equity
    the market does not trust the story ( they have heard it all to many times )
    Personally i think plug can survive yet the wild card at some point becomes
    the price of oil . i get the no emissions ect and clean air to breathe if you work
    in a warehouse.
    At the end of the day it comes down to earnings growth ,actual profit
    and cash flow .
    keep in mind that mutual fund managers dont purchase stocks less that 5 bucks .
    bottom line : plug wont get much investment until its stock price holds above 5 dollars.
    that said i own the stock and it is a very small position ,i put it there as part of
    my allocation strategy.
    we may argue which is better electric ( battery powered ) versus fuel cells .
    which is safer which is more cost effective ect .
    this could be just another beta max versus vhs tape ( beta max was better tech yet it lost )
    Microsoft versus apple ?
    it comes down to how well plug can market itself and at the moment it does have some
    strong customers but how much volume are they buying ?
    as another thought to this .
    Rad versus Plug ( rite aide versus plug power )
    they are both roughly the same price today yet which company has a higher chance
    or surviving 10 years out ?
    mutual fund managers would be more interested in RAD since its over 5 a share
    I like plug own a small position yet in my view i ask myself can this company turn itself
    around and gain the trust of its investors and not keep diluting share value ?
    ill give it a year good bad or otherwise and then decide .
    good luck

  • Reply to

    buyout ? or value ?

    by fiborules Aug 2, 2013 5:27 PM
    fiborules fiborules Aug 27, 2013 3:04 AM Flag

    glad the deal is done and i can say i walked away making a good choice

  • fiborules fiborules Aug 9, 2013 3:38 PM Flag

    my last thought on this ,
    assuming the deal is done with AMGN i would expect amgn to drift lower
    ideally near 92.50 maybe mid to late Sept , if that happens i would look to
    buy AMGN expecting to hear a buy out of ONXX , the upside would be towards
    135 on AMGN into year end .if it happens obviously .
    if it jumps great if not ill keep my risk controlled .
    still dont see the reason to buy ONXX though .
    bottom line : im going to sit back and be patient

  • fiborules fiborules Aug 9, 2013 3:04 PM Flag

    you are never guaranteed of a profit in a week or even some time down the road
    had you sold at or near 130 that is the present bid , and even if a deal is done
    it means you will become AMGN and then there is time to wait before the transfer
    even takes place , time is money and this stock was ABOVE that bid !
    anyone that wanted out at the bid price had there chance already .
    so who wants AMGN ? becomes the question .

  • fiborules fiborules Aug 9, 2013 11:36 AM Flag

    many times i have seen stocks that are being bought out or have a deal in the works
    flat line near the deal price yet usually just below it . this stock looks like people are thinking
    the 130 price is probably about it . also now that earnings are out and all cards are on the table
    there is no reason for this stock to move up at this time . once everyone that wants in is in
    the stock cant rise because there are no buyers left . this is not about shorts driving the price down
    its about those that bought getting out .

  • hui up 8.88 %
    xau Up 8.42 %
    auq up 9.76 %
    goro up 4.44 %
    kgc up 6.09 %
    scco up 6.56 %
    clf up 8.91 %
    x up 5.25 %
    mt up 5.21 %
    aa up 1.54 %
    ach up 2.03 %
    looks like money is moving into the metals across the board
    to soon to say its bottomed yet they were all very oversold
    and due for atleast a significant bounce .
    wdc up 4.87 %

    onxx down .62 % and yes earnings can move it higher
    yet lets say onxx jumps 20 % from here and hits
    152 . that is a fair move and is somewhat speculative
    and trading news . look at the above percentage you
    could have already made today had you been positioned
    elsewhere .
    i sold onxx at 131 1/2 having owned it from near 40
    i still like the pharma biotech and generic drug sector
    and own several . any movement in onxx will from a
    buy out cause those who want in are already in .
    the earnings today may move it up yet the stock
    looks capped right here right now .
    higher later ? possibly .
    celg tapped 150 and has come back that one may
    be capped for a while to .
    long story short i think the market is overall bullish
    yet try to justify a technical reason why onxx
    should move higher . make the case
    i dont see it right now regardless of what they report
    good luck all

  • fiborules by fiborules Aug 8, 2013 12:51 PM Flag

    maybe this was so long ago that no body remembers what happened after
    the big offer

  • fiborules by fiborules Aug 2, 2013 5:27 PM Flag

    I cant see why anyone would trade or even buy a stock based on rumors
    the facts are onxx rejected a bid for 120 a share . the rest is just hype
    having owned the stock at near 40 i sold it at 131 1/2 , still following it
    yet its overvalued at this price .
    yes it can go higher but im not going to bank on a rumor
    good luck all

  • fiborules fiborules Nov 5, 2012 4:16 AM Flag

    thanks for the info , i bought celg along with a handful of other in dec when it appeared to me that many of these stocks were being chased . so what i did was group them together like an index
    and as a whole the group is at all time highs , i dont care about the pull back , my bias is the population as a whole is aging and that only means one thing more drug purchase weather generic or not i just dont see this trend ending

  • fiborules fiborules Nov 5, 2012 4:00 AM Flag

    i hope so , still needs to take out 42.50

  • Reply to

    QQQ - Word on the Street

    by sydneybowman345 Oct 22, 2012 7:40 AM
    fiborules fiborules Nov 5, 2012 3:57 AM Flag

    everyone is a genius in a bull market , it is the bear markets when the time tested bullish programs fail and fail badly

  • Reply to

    Futures low and close tomorrow is key

    by kone2410 Nov 4, 2012 6:03 PM
    fiborules fiborules Nov 5, 2012 3:44 AM Flag

    12922 seem like a long ways even if its not , yet as far as tomorrows close is concerned i do not see that it matters anymore then fridays close .

  • fiborules fiborules Jun 4, 2012 12:52 AM Flag

    maybe 1000 pt move up coming yet prob this week
    next week
    ill see how market looks friday,tomorrow ( monday ) a fake out day

  • Reply to

    Ok, Let's Be HONEST here.

    by stephenemerson2002 Jun 4, 2012 12:07 AM
    fiborules fiborules Jun 4, 2012 12:39 AM Flag

    A bounce monday and a drop for the week which could be rather strong
    and then a rally into mid july followed by a decline to new lows
    No true bottom till march of 2013
    whats your call bud ?

  • this will be a tough call
    depending on how this stock opens Monday

  • will be incredible if this actually plays out
    as this guy thinks is possible .

  • fiborules by fiborules Apr 9, 2012 3:28 AM Flag

    food for thought over the next couple months

  • Reply to


    by pudshqft Mar 27, 2012 11:51 PM
    fiborules fiborules Mar 28, 2012 12:55 AM Flag

    get over it and except you are who you are

  • Reply to


    by dlavine78 Mar 15, 2012 12:20 AM
    fiborules fiborules Mar 20, 2012 4:07 AM Flag

    Maybe they don't know what the present government administration
    is going to do next ?
    do you know if xom get and subsidies from the gov ?
    Do you know if the tax policies will change next year or not ?
    what new regulation is coming ?
    until we get an administration that supports business and
    a valid tax policy that doesn't flip back and forth around
    elections how can any business plans anything ?
    your worried about a dividend ?
    all a dividend does is give you a piece of your money back
    a little at a time and the stock price drops accordingly .
    share buy backs drive the stock price higher and yes i do realize
    at the cost of retained earnings .
    id say holding back is a good thing until the elections late this year
    if not even waiting until the tax exemptions expire
    at the very least we will have a policy that may stick ?
    or a deep recession once the elections are over .
    so what would you do under all these scenarios if you were in charge ?
    give the money away ?

  • Reply to

    Once new Hi Hit, we Break $100.00 !!

    by pkj100 Mar 19, 2012 3:43 PM
    fiborules fiborules Mar 20, 2012 3:53 AM Flag

    as long as 87.57 first get broken that would signal to me
    a break through 88.20 and a move to 100 then 109
    but short term past Wednesday it pull back from 87.57 towards 85
    i am bullish the stock just trying to figure the short term along with
    the long term . 84.00 is the must hold for me regardless .
    nice to see someone actually talking about xom instead
    of politics

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