Noble Corp. Message Board

Also, that was hilarious. rrtzrealmd, the silence is deafening. To everyone else: that's it for me here on the HPTX board. You've read my investment thesis, good luck to all.

Yup, straight from the prospectus: "prior to approving Ravicti". Last I checked the drug was approved earlier this year.

rrtzrealmd, I'm hugely disappointed. I thought you were actually doing some original thinking about this company and it turns out you're just paying for reports and then regurgitating their analyses here. A tip: if one of the analysts has told you HPTX might be forced, *post-approval*, to file a 510k application... well that person doesn't know what a 510k application is.

Is there any way to fire you from this board?

Bolton - down days like this are often very rough on small cap biotechs. With HPTX I think this is also part of a cooling off period after the IPO euphoria (see my post from several weeks ago about how we'd likely fall back toward $20). It's up 100% since the IPO and the lock-up period is over as far as I know, so there may be some profit taking from the institutional investors. The last piece is that a generic NaPBA was approved recently. I've posted before how Ravicti is a better drug (ignore rrtzrealmd's lunatic posts on non-inferiority and an imaginary $30 million revenue cap - he is trying to win back some major losses) but the existence of generic NaPBA does put more pressure on HPTX to move patients to their drug.

I haven't seen any announcements related to earnings boltonpost. In the past they've released earnings 5-8 weeks after the end of the quarter. Earnings will of course be in the red at this point, though it'll be interesting to see whether they generated any revenue from Ravicti during the short time they were getting it to patients before the end of the quarter.

I stand corrected - on 2/4 it closed at 18.81 and today it's at 21.45, so you're down a mere 14%, not 15% like I originally stated. Also: competition is looming from overseas? I'll do you a favor and point out that generic NaPBA was already approved in the US. It just took the market two weeks to (over)react to the news.

Congrats rrtzrealmd! Now you're down only 15% since approval and a mere 110% since the IPO. Way to go!

Anyone else have a feeling part of today's move is due to the stock split / dividend announcement by NBL, which some people still mistake for NE?

omrastyle, he probably does need to see a mental health professional. But his track record here, at least, suggests that if he is really trying to manipulate stock prices, he is hugely unsuccessful. He's down 20+% on HPTX alone.

Medicis - "intelligent big pharma"? Look at what their product line included and ask yourself whether they were cut out to develop an orphan drug for a metabolic disorder. They were selling dermatology products for god's sake. That's why they unloaded glycerol phenylbutyrate. They didn't want to face the long, $200 million road to approval when they knew they weren't cut out to bring it to market. The fact that they were underpricing Buphenyl just shows how little they knew about the orphan drug world. And *that*, by the way, is also the reason 30 million is not the max revenue from Buphenyl and Ravicti.

A few thoughts:
- I think the stock is overheated. Obviously I've said my peace with regard to HPTX elsewhere and think it is a good company with a very solid future. That said, you don't shoot up to 150% of your IPO price so quickly and just keep going. The consistent 1-2% daily bumps the past week or two didn't have much justification, at least in terms of obvious catalysts from anything the company's been saying or doing. I think a drop back toward $20 is likely. I'm a buy and hold guy myself and am standing pat, since long-term I think we're headed well above $25 and I know from experience that trying to time the dips is a fool's game. But I don't think it'll be a straight shot up.
- Regarding Lucane, they've applied for marketing rights in Europe. I don't know whether they're planning on applying for the right to sell their version of NaPBA in the US, but if they do they'll have a fight on their hands. HPTX's dosing patent can and likely will go into the label of both Ravicti and Buphenyl, and you can't make a generic without copying the label... which is patented. So they'd either be at risk for a lawsuit, or have to pay HPTX licensing fees. That's my understanding - welcome any/all thoughts.

rrtzrealmd, I can't tell you how much I appreciate the comic relief! Now I'm not a math major, but I think you may want to check your numbers there.

Welcome back rrtzrealmd! I am a little sad though that you've been reduced to posting under pseudonyms and then replying to your own posts. But you do seem to be a good luck charm for HPTX - up another ~5% today for a total of 28% since you started posting here on Feb 4, and ~140% since the brighter among us bought immediately post-IPO. So thanks for that! A few substantial points in reply to your post:
- HPTX will own Buphenyl within a few months, so they'll be able to control pricing and there is nothing preventing them from selling Buphenyl at close to what they will charge for Ravicti
- the number of patients on treatment will likely increase now that there is an alternative to Buphenyl, which is very poorly tolerated.

Like I said, it's much more fun when you're around. Welcome back!

NE has over the last couple years.

rrtzrealmd - the HPTX board misses you.

"one thing I know FER'SURE is I ain't never seen no offering priced higher than the day it was announced!....HAW!!!..."

Well closing price on 2/26 was $19.30, and they just sold all the new shares at $20.75.

I fear we've seen the last of rrtzrealmd. Hard to keep talking with your mouth so full of crow.

Ahh fundamental analysis and technical analysis working in harmony. I love it. A few other thoughts on why I'm thinking we stay in the $34-36 range for the next while: few catalysts on the horizon except earnings on 4/16, which will be mediocre; on the flip side, the dividend vote is also in April, and assuming the jump to $1/share happens that may provide a stronger floor. I'm in, after stupidly buying in hopes of a scalp trade as we were coming down from $39, but in a perfect world would be watching from the outside and waiting for something in the $34 range. A good time to be selling short-term calls here, I think.