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Noble Corporation plc Message Board

fields59 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 13, 2015 1:19 AM Member since: Dec 31, 2008
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  • fields59 fields59 Apr 13, 2015 1:19 AM Flag

    Jetman - a few I like this year are: STML, GLYC, TGTX, CARA, VSTM, and OVAS. The last few years have been kind to most every investor, but I've been able to stay above average with the following algorithm. Do a stock screen where you look for "biotech" companies in the 100-700 million market cap range (schwab has a great screen) that have a Reuters average rating of "Buy" with 3-7 analysts following. This narrows the results to ~30 companies or so that are small and relatively below the radar. Then run these through a site where you can see projected price target (street insider has one you can use for free). Make a spreadsheet and order the results by highest potential increase if they meet their target price. Pick the top ten, look over the science, and if it makes sense then invest. I own ~12 companies with this algorithm and returns over the last 3 yrs are 50% annually. It's basically a venture capital model. Several of the stocks go down drastically, but each year there are 1-2 that go up 100-300% and these carry the portfolio. Happy to talk more about this if you're interested. Got lucky with HPTX, owning it from the beginning, and a few other winners have been TGTX, OVAS, GWPH, BLUE. I've been less lucky with MEIP and VSTM but the averages have been good.

  • Reply to

    no auction

    by mariyatrader Apr 9, 2015 5:03 PM
    fields59 fields59 Apr 13, 2015 1:11 AM Flag

    My guess is the Horizon deal closes but yeah we'll see - there's still a month or so during which someone could outbid them. $1.1 billion seems a low-to-fair price for a company with $120 in revenue and the kind of patent protection they have, though obviously HPTX felt they were relatively fairly valued.

  • Reply to

    Horizon should sue

    by junglejim888 Apr 3, 2015 3:17 PM
    fields59 fields59 Apr 6, 2015 11:49 PM Flag

    Wow. So misinformed. Why are Hyperion's expenses high? It's because they are (were) developing Ravicti for hepatic encephalopathy. What are the odds that Horizon, an ORPHAN drug company, is going to continue that development program? Low, to say the least. So it makes no sense to look at net profit as a proxy for what Horizon will be making off the drug going forward. And quarterly sales were still on the rise. So stop all the nonsense talk about suing, and lawyers. Law companies post junk on message boards all the time. They have no case against either Hyperion or Horizon, both of whom are getting a good deal, as are YOU, the shareholders!

  • Reply to

    Horizon should sue

    by junglejim888 Apr 3, 2015 3:17 PM
    fields59 fields59 Apr 4, 2015 4:25 AM Flag

    Get a clue. There was a bidding war, and Horizon is still getting an amazing deal. It's immediately accretive, which is why their share price shot up. Who exactly would they sue?

  • Reply to

    Price action

    by starfe1l Mar 24, 2015 6:35 PM
    fields59 fields59 Mar 24, 2015 8:54 PM Flag

    Or some big seller was selling. I'm positive on TGTX but keep in mind every transaction has two parties. I don't make much of that pattern. But then again WTFDIK :)

  • Reply to


    by steveparks61223 Mar 20, 2015 1:22 PM
    fields59 fields59 Mar 20, 2015 9:26 PM Flag

    Steve - plenty of good leads on here already. For what it's worth, the ones I'm in and optimistic about this year:
    MEIP, GLYC, AQXP, CARA, THLD, VSTM. Without a ton of cash it's a tough decision, as my strategy is to invest in about a dozen knowing that most won't do much but a couple 2-3 baggers will carry the portfolio. With limited funds that becomes harder as trading fees eat up your returns. It might be worth looking at one of the new platforms that give you free trades, though many of those companies are brand new and may not be around long. Food for thought.

    Let's keep an eye on this thread and re-evaluate in several months to see who won... then next time you'll really know who to listen to right? j.k. Good luck

  • fields59 fields59 Mar 20, 2015 12:02 AM Flag

    Icdcweb - wondering if you checked out those stocks I mentioned... it's been a pretty fun week! Up collectively an average of 6.8%

  • Reply to

    Big chunk bought at the close

    by stk_racer Mar 19, 2015 4:01 PM
    fields59 fields59 Mar 19, 2015 11:51 PM Flag

    Ditto about the patience minnesota. The biggest mistakes I've made as an investor have been selling too early. I'm pretty happy with my portfolio right now and despite other opportunities and attractive stocks showing up on my screens I'm holding them all. I'm ok watching some stock I thought about buying go up 300%, because it's way more painful to have sold something on its way up. A couple recent examples:
    Rode ANAC from $8 and sold at $24.. now it's $56
    Rode GWPH from $8 to $68, now it's $94
    And worst of all:
    Had a "buy" order in for ESPR at $15, which missed filling by a few cents. Watched it shoot away. Ouch.

    Big picture, these are first world problems and very good ones to have. I've been very lucky to be in TGTX, BLUE, OVAS, and HPTX the last few years all with 200+% gains, and man what wonders a few of those winners will do for one's portfolio.

    Anyways, good luck exercising patience. I'm done trying to time the market, just choose carefully and let time work its magic.

  • fields59 fields59 Mar 16, 2015 4:50 PM Flag

    I think most of this is takeover speculation, unless someone knows something the rest of us don't. That said, HPTX was WAY undervalued when it was in the mid-20s, so yes I'm fairly sure there will be a pullback to the low 30s at some point but I also wouldn't be surprised to see HPTX in a new range in the 30s. They are making money, have long-term patents that will hopefully protect them against generics, and a potentially huge second indication.

    The biggest trading mistakes I've ever made have been selling too early, so I'd be hesitant to get out right now. Some others I own that I think will do well this year: TGTX, STML, VSTM, TROV, MEIP, CARA.

  • fields59 fields59 Mar 12, 2015 7:34 PM Flag

    jetmanbash - good job finding HPTX. It is a rare gem. Barely any action on this board but there are some good posts (mostly from me) from the last few years that talk about the potential. Only over the last few days has it finally moved closer to fair value. Young, profitable, with a huge looming second indication for Ravicti and frankly unbelievable length of patent protection currently... these add up to a great company and great potential takeover target.

  • Reply to

    some thoughts

    by fields59 Nov 12, 2014 11:58 PM
    fields59 fields59 Mar 12, 2015 7:25 PM Flag

    I'm guessing no one followed my tips, which I certainly wouldn't have from some rando on a message board either. But my point remains: please get out of ESV! Today: market up huge, ESV down big. How much more can you take? Buying biotech like those stocks I mentioned (up 6.3%, 71.6%, and 9.8% respectively) and watching them grow has been a blast. I was lucky to get out early (when ESV was in the low $50s) and still lost about 15%, but to spend so much of this bull market, when it's otherwise so relatively easy to make money just by looking toward high beta stocks, I can't imagine sitting with any significant amount of money in the drillers. It's not too late. Save yourselves. Stop hating yourself. I was in NE and ESV for about 5 years just waiting and finally said enough, and it was the smartest investing decision I've ever made.

  • Reply to

    How low can this go?

    by typea1949 Mar 7, 2015 9:08 AM
    fields59 fields59 Mar 10, 2015 9:46 AM Flag

    If you're with a typical broker that charges $8-9/trade, buying 25 shares means your fee represents 2% of your purchase cost - definitely NOT smart or prudent. And better to buy on the way up. Of course the best way to make money is to NOT BUY ESV - something I recommended back in November. Save yourself the pain! There are way easier ways to make $$ right now.

  • Reply to

    rrtzrealmd's track record

    by fields59 Jul 9, 2014 9:18 PM
    fields59 fields59 Feb 26, 2015 6:05 PM Flag

    rrtzrealmd (and his prediction about Hyperion's maximum revenue) is long gone from this board. And in the meantime, HPTX keeps generating increasing and impressive revenue through excellent uptake of Ravicti, and looks to do the same for a long time via a ridiculously long patent life and promising, potentially game-changing second indication. This should be a $40 stock at least.

  • Reply to

    All eyes on TROV in Geneva this April.

    by norris109 Feb 13, 2015 9:40 AM
    fields59 fields59 Feb 13, 2015 8:48 PM Flag

    Thanks Norris - do you have a reference for them being selected as "best abstract"? Wanted to read a little more about it.

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