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Ensco plc Message Board

fields59 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 20, 2016 1:12 PM Member since: Dec 31, 2008
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  • fields59 fields59 Jan 20, 2016 1:12 PM Flag

    That and yesterday's announcement that they expect TG 1101 to be launched by the end of next year.

  • Reply to

    What happened to all the board posters?

    by jrummell7 Jan 11, 2016 10:51 AM
    fields59 fields59 Jan 13, 2016 10:39 AM Flag

    What do you think a more realistic valuation would be and why?

  • Reply to

    What happened to all the board posters?

    by jrummell7 Jan 11, 2016 10:51 AM
    fields59 fields59 Jan 13, 2016 9:23 AM Flag

    We're still here. The thesis hasn't changed. Yes there are new CLL competitors. Approval is still extremely likely, as is an ultimate buyout. I've been in since $4.3 in early 2014 and several more purchases since then. Only regret is not having had the foresight to see the election year sentiment against drug companies. If I wasn't already at my target allocation for TGTX I'd be buying much more here. I think it will hit a $1 - $1.5 billion valuation sometime in the next 12-24 mos.

  • Reply to

    After hours 56k shares @ $11.31

    by sunchris100 Dec 17, 2015 7:54 AM
    fields59 fields59 Dec 18, 2015 10:04 AM Flag

    I agree golder - Acerta valued at ~$7B. That makes me think ultimate TGTX buyout will be in the $3-4B range. Wouldn't that be nice! Suggests an upside of 5-6x from here.

  • Reply to

    Was anyone here before the 1:50 RS?

    by frankfrazzano Dec 14, 2015 11:52 AM
    fields59 fields59 Dec 16, 2015 4:55 PM Flag

    Not here as far back as the reverse split but have been in since $4.3 in Jan 2014. Have bought several times since without selling any, now with an average cost basis of ~$7/share. jjgiablue - I like the "moral cause" comment. I appreciate the rational look - it's easy to get caught up what the stock price SHOULD be. At what point are you / will you be a buyer again? Congrats too on the profit. For me, I think the odds of approval are very high and with that will come buyout offers in the ~$2B range - which makes any purchase at / near these levels a steal. The consolidation in the pharmaceutical industry these days is unbelievable.

  • fields59 fields59 Dec 13, 2015 2:54 PM Flag

    I see TGTX getting bought out in the 2-3 billion range in the next 18-24 months. Welcome Fraz, feel free to share any expertise you have from knowing the sales side.

  • Reply to

    ASH 2015

    by biomaster43 Dec 10, 2015 3:09 PM
    fields59 fields59 Dec 11, 2015 12:40 AM Flag

    Thanks bio, I'm an internal med resident so a little removed from the basic science and haven't taken care of too many CLL patients myself yet.

  • Reply to

    Picks for 2015

    by fields59 Nov 29, 2015 8:44 PM
    fields59 fields59 Dec 10, 2015 5:33 PM Flag

    Dr. John - what is your reservation regarding TKAI? Meet me over on the TKAI board if you want to chat more. I just posted my thoughts under this same username in a comment to the recent Seeking Alpha article stating the bear case against TKAI. Sorry others for the spam here.

  • fields59 by fields59 Dec 10, 2015 3:49 PM Flag

    I was just looking over some data, thought I'd share:

    from JAMA Oncology, 8/2015: For taxane-based regimens, "The PSA response rates [at least 50% reduction in PSA] were 41% (7 of 17men; 95% CI, 18%-67%) in AR-V7–positive patients and 65% (13of 20 men; 95% CI, 41%-85%) in AR-V7–negative patients, a non-significant difference of 24% (P= .19; 95% CI for the differ-ence, −13% to 60%).

    Not significant based on P value, but notable. Upshot of the study (PMID 26181238): no significant difference in response rates to taxane-based regimens for patient who are AR-V7 positive vs AR-V7 negative.

    TKAI's data compares favorably to this: see http://tokaipharmaceuticals.com/our-programs/publications-presentations/ - data from ARMOR2, dated Jan 30, 2014 - "The most mature data set, M1 treatment naïve at 2550 mg QD has shown favorable PSA responses with 90% PSA30 and 81% PSA50".

    It's curious that TKAI is comparing galeterone to enzalutamide, a drug which we know does NOT work for AR-V7 positive patients (a result confirmed in the JAMA Oncology article I cited above). It's going to work better, duh. It sounds like the more relevant question in terms of convincing oncologists to prescribe galeterone, will be does it do better than taxane-based regimens - the above data suggests it might. So ARMOR3 will be a success but the question is what to do with the results.

  • Reply to

    ASH 2015

    by biomaster43 Dec 10, 2015 3:09 PM
    fields59 fields59 Dec 10, 2015 3:21 PM Flag

    Thanks much bio. Out of curiosity are you an oncologist or in internal med / another field? I'm loaded up already or would be adding at these levels. I do foresee a very rosy 2016 - 2017, and likely an early rise in Jan as the tax-loss selling stops and institutions load up for the new year.

  • Reply to

    I backed up the truck here today

    by liebel53 Dec 7, 2015 8:12 PM
    fields59 fields59 Dec 7, 2015 9:43 PM Flag

    I think that was wise. Not sure what this will do between now and the end of the year, but I do think we'll see an early-2016 pop as funds buy in, for what is going to big a year with important catalysts.

  • Reply to

    Picks for 2015

    by fields59 Nov 29, 2015 8:44 PM
    fields59 fields59 Dec 1, 2015 8:09 PM Flag

    thanks Dr. John - will look into these over the next few weeks.

  • fields59 by fields59 Nov 29, 2015 8:44 PM Flag

    Just one opinion from a random poster on the internet, but did want to say for the record that TGTX is my top pick for 2016 - there's a LOT to look forward to and I think the run-up into the GENUINE top-line data. And also for the record, my other 2016 picks: STML, CARA, TROV, TKAI, CERU, GLYC. Would be happy to hear which stocks you other smart people are looking at for the coming year.

  • Reply to

    What a dog

    by jwpyron99 Nov 25, 2015 3:03 PM
    fields59 fields59 Nov 25, 2015 7:59 PM Flag

    Yes December could be a good month. I would also pay close attention to trading on Dec 31 - if there's a lot of end-of-year (end-of-quarter) selling it could drop substantially and that would be a great buying opportunity, as it's almost certainly going to rise on Jan 4 (first trading day of the year) as institutional investors look to increase their positions for what is sure to be an active 2016.

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