Interesting observation golder. The pattern from last year looks like a buy the rumor, sell the news kind of chart - straight down after July. But I don't see us going down much below this current range. This current movement does feel like a shakeout to me as well. When we finally make our move up it'll be quick and decisive, so my only goal is to not be "out" when that time comes.
I don't foresee a buyout prior to positive P3 trial results or maybe not even until after approval. I suspect it'll rise substantially as P3 completion date gets closer, and then they will ultimately go the way of a buyout. What they'll ultimately be worth is anyone's guess - my best guess is in the 2-4 billion range. If I was unaware of TGTX I'd be excited to get in at these levels. Downside is 100% if somehow all their trials fail, and upside is 5-10x, with the latter scenario being fairly likely.
jwp - I'm not adding here but only because I'm already overweight with TGTX in my portfolio. Long term I suspect these levels will make an excellent entry point. I do ask myself the question - does the lack of activity on this board bode poorly for what should be an exciting stock? Based on my experience, not necessarily. I held Hyperion Therapeutics as it quietly quadrupled and was ultimately bought out last year, and its message board was never particularly active. So I wouldn't let the price action or lack of chatter dissuade you from buying.