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Apple Inc. Message Board

fiend_bear 3 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 30, 2014 7:48 PM Member since: May 27, 2003
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  • Reply to

    New lows

    by jshaef1 Oct 30, 2014 8:25 AM
    fiend_bear fiend_bear Oct 30, 2014 7:48 PM Flag

    Yes indeed, not finished... 7.70 today! Wow, that's a 12 year low (2012). Gold was selling for $300 an ounce, a full 75% lower than today's close of $1,200. Mining stocks have been taken out, shot and left for dead. The HUI/Gold ratio has dropped to 0.137 (almost matching the 2000 bear market record low). Today looked like panic liquidation by the longs. However, if $1,180 gold doesn't hold, there could be a lot more downside to follow.

    BGEIX has (so far) lost 75% from top to bottom. I bought this fund in 2000 at $4.00 and sold it all in 2002 in the $8.00 range for a nice double (it was NOT straight up btw). It is now below my sell point of 12 years ago. Amazing. I have recently accumulated shares again, but it appears the fire sale is just getting started. Sentiment seems worse now than in 2000 - that's good from a contrarian view. Ironically, the set up is similar now with record highs in the Dow too. Time will tell...

  • Reply to

    Trend changes and noise

    by jshaef1 Oct 22, 2014 8:36 AM
    fiend_bear fiend_bear Oct 23, 2014 3:14 PM Flag

    Here's another one for you - check out Sept 1999. HUI rose 60% in 10 days. Of course that was coming off a long term bottom in gold and was precipitated by the announcement of the Central Bank Gold Agreement. Also driven by massive short covering, but that did mark the end of the bear market for gold (gold stocks bottomed the next year). Who knows - maybe the passage of the Swiss referendum could provide a similar spark. You never know. Not predicting, just saying.

  • Reply to

    Trend changes and noise

    by jshaef1 Oct 22, 2014 8:36 AM
    fiend_bear fiend_bear Oct 22, 2014 6:09 PM Flag

    Good point and you certainly are a prolific poster. If this truly is your last post, perhaps this serves as a good contrarian indicator that a bottom is at hand :) FYI - HUI/Gold ratio hit a new 14 year low today at 0.1486. Food for thought...

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