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Cubist Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

finallyinthemoney 83 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 27, 2015 1:51 PM Member since: May 22, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Sam's Blog -

    by finallyinthemoney Mar 27, 2015 1:41 PM
    finallyinthemoney finallyinthemoney Mar 27, 2015 1:51 PM Flag

    BTW, Sam is reporting 102 avg reading on his 'cgm', and 92% time in the '50 - 150' range with Afrezza vs 32% before Afrezza, 71% in range '70 - 130' vs. 22% prior to Afrezza. AU's A1C 'Correlation' is 5.28 on Afrezza vs 10.2 before Afrezza. Brian Sharp is reporting similar results.

    Will only be another 4 weeks-plus before the 'official' new 12 week A1C readings begin showing up at the prescribing physicians - that is when the skeptics begin to become advocates as irrefutable reports demonstrating Afrezza's significant superiority begin stacking up. Sleep tight Shorty - 90 million shares is one heck of a lot of shares to cover at the same time many institutions are also accumulating.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • finallyinthemoney by finallyinthemoney Mar 27, 2015 1:41 PM Flag

    "What Surprises You Most About The First Week Data?"

    "The obvious for me is that our time in zone was significantly greater than anyone expected. Also, the A1C’s levels we are running at now are considered “non-diabetic” or “pre-diabetic”. Of course, this number needs to be run for 12 weeks before any of the participants can claim an A1C in 5’s or low 6’s. You should know that none of us have ever had an A1c that low. We are all stunned, as will our doctors be when we do get that 3 month A1C number. Note: Dr. Bode did look at my data from my Dexcom Monitor and it was only for the first 4 weeks and used the word “unbelievable” several times. On the trials I finished with an A1C of 7.1 even with all the protocols. Can’t wait to see other doctors reaction around the country when all the Afrezza users officially report their #’s – doctors will be pleasantly shocked. And then this new drug Afrezza will be everywhere and a common prescription for all diabetics (except for smokers, asthma sufferers and persons with COPD)."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • finallyinthemoney finallyinthemoney Mar 24, 2015 3:32 PM Flag

    Neat trick since they haven't even filed. My 'ignore' finger is becoming fatigued.

  • Reply to

    Diabetes Mine - Editor

    by rightview2014 Mar 19, 2015 10:51 AM
    finallyinthemoney finallyinthemoney Mar 22, 2015 12:14 AM Flag

    She posted that she is 'starting to master Afrezza'. Seems everyone has just to go through a bit of a learning curve is all. Remember Sam had 6 months prior experience with Afrezza. Give her another week at least.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • finallyinthemoney finallyinthemoney Mar 21, 2015 11:13 PM Flag

    Nice, though all in all, the real share count is a good bit higher.

    Why not re-figure using a FPE of say 39 like REGN's, even CELG with a market cap like 50 times ours is sporting a FPE of 20, or BIIB again with a $111B market cap is graced with a Forward P/E of 24. Increasing the PE to 20 sends your $56 to $80; going with 24 results in $96.

    One could argue for say a 20% increase in share count, but after making adjustments to the above numbers, we are still way way under-priced at $5ish a share. And then there is REGN's Forward P/E of 39 which sends MNKD's share price into near-earth orbit.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • finallyinthemoney finallyinthemoney Mar 20, 2015 4:11 PM Flag

    It makes sense - why should they stand by and allow their investment to be mauled below a key support?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    New User

    by larry5830 Mar 18, 2015 3:38 PM
    finallyinthemoney finallyinthemoney Mar 18, 2015 4:01 PM Flag

    Thanks for posting larry5830. Please let us know how you do with Afrezza.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • finallyinthemoney finallyinthemoney Mar 18, 2015 11:07 AM Flag

    Especially timely considering Sam's experience with Afrezza.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • finallyinthemoney finallyinthemoney Mar 17, 2015 8:59 AM Flag

    Excellent. I will have to do a valuation based on the ISIS P/S of 39. MNKD has $200M just in milestones! Oh baby!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • finallyinthemoney finallyinthemoney Mar 17, 2015 8:56 AM Flag

    Bumping it up

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • finallyinthemoney finallyinthemoney Mar 17, 2015 8:56 AM Flag

    Agree. The information in this post is too valuable to let it get lost. The implications are staggering.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Editor-in-Chief at DiabetesMine Now using afrezza

    by seyhey44 Mar 15, 2015 6:47 AM
    finallyinthemoney finallyinthemoney Mar 16, 2015 5:05 PM Flag

    This news will spread like wildfire. Shorts are sooo skrewed! LOL 90 million at last count.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • finallyinthemoney finallyinthemoney Mar 16, 2015 5:01 PM Flag

    Amazing!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • finallyinthemoney finallyinthemoney Mar 14, 2015 1:53 PM Flag

    What a freaking crybaby....'Sam is out there telling the truth, and I don't like it'! Waaah waaah LOL

  • Has to make you wonder.

  • *QUIRK'S Marketing Research Media

    Article ID:
    20050609
    Published:
    June 2005, page 22
    Author:
    Yilian Yaun...." Yilian Yuan is director, marketing analytics, IMS Management Consulting, Fairfield, Conn." *or at least was at the time.*

    "One goal of conducing a forecast of market potential is to be able to determine the optimum level of promotion that should be allocated to launch a new product. To provide evidence-based guidance on promotional resource planning, IMS Health analyzed the professional promotion spending patterns in the first five years after launch for 10 recently- launched products in the United States." *3 'anti-diabetics' included in list btw.*

    "The promotional costs included in the analysis relate to physician detailing, sampling and professional journal advertisement. In the first five years following a launch, the total professional promotion spend is about 15 to 25 percent of the total sales achieved in the same time period. For example, if a product achieved total $2B sales in the first five years, the company spent $300M to $500M in total on promotions in that period. The spending pattern is front-loaded with about 30 percent of the total spent in the first year."

    *"Promotional spend in the first year is about 85 percent of the first year’s sales. Over time, promotional spend drops to about 10 percent of the sales for a given year."

    "Although analogs play a very important role in forecasting new product market potential, primary research with physicians, payers and patients can provide valuable information that may not be available otherwise. And, primary research is even more important than analogs when only sparse secondary data is available or when significant new events are anticipated. Whenever possible, qualitative and/or quantitative primary research should be undertaken with stakeholders."

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Spoke with a IM doc who had the Afrezza Samples

    by jhall5197 Mar 7, 2015 11:17 AM
    finallyinthemoney finallyinthemoney Mar 7, 2015 7:38 PM Flag

    Excellent post jhall5197

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Spoke with a IM doc who had the Afrezza Samples

    by jhall5197 Mar 7, 2015 11:17 AM
    finallyinthemoney finallyinthemoney Mar 7, 2015 7:37 PM Flag

    Thanks for post jhall197 -
    We of course feel that the added cost for Afrezza is more than justified through increased compliance, and superior efficacy, as is being proved out daily, thus Afrezza will actually save money for the insurance industry; whether all insurers will recognize this and 'embrace' Afrezza without resistance is something we are waiting to see. There is also the far superior safety profile of Afrezza, over numerous oral diabetes drugs. I hope it won't be too long before docs, in general, and the insurance industry realize that Afrezza, in many instances, will make these costly and sometimes dangerous oral meds obsolete and unjustified - guessing that is an area where Sanofi will need to spread the word in whatever manner they deem most effective. According to at least one poster, a doc I believe, SNY rep has indicated DTC advertisements will begin in July - by then it should be common knowledge among those who have educated themselves (or been educated), that Afrezza's efficacy surpasses what the FDA will allow Sanofi to claim in the advertisements. Always an uphill battle to supplant the status quo.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • finallyinthemoney finallyinthemoney Mar 5, 2015 8:42 PM Flag

    Yeah, I know, the T2 market is much larger. Seems a number of our early adopters, the posting ones anyway, are T1s, so I just thought it would make an interesting exercise just to see what we might expect regarding weekly RX numbers just from them, also we know even the newly diagnosed T1s need insulin right off. In reality, I suspect Afrezza will capture at least 40% of the existing US T1 population, and I can see this might be achieved easily within 3 years vs the 4 I used, but again trying to be conservative. Still, ~ 70,000 T1s minimum, adopting Afrezza each year for 4 years would likely equate to around $7.00 per share, and we know they represent only 5% to 7% of the diabetic population - from there one can draw loose correlations.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • We know there are approximately 20 million 'diagnosed' diabetics in the US (current figures likely a bit higher); if you aren't diagnosed then you obviously aren't a candidate for treatment (Afrezza or otherwise). We have statistics which indicate T1s make up at least 5%, and it could easily be 7% (depends on your source); but we will go with 5%. We also know that approx. 85% of T1s are adults (only they count for now). So, 5% of 20M is 1M, and 85% of that figure is 850,000 US T1s (minimum). So let's be super conservative and suppose Afrezza 'captures' only 30% of these existing adult US T1s over say 4 years (I did say we were being conservative). 30% of 850K is 255,000....250,000 X .25 (spreading it over 4 years) is 63,750 T1s we can expect to adopt Afrezza each year until we 'capture' the full 255,000 T1s. Now taking this yearly 63,750 - for simplicity's sake we will assume a linear increase in T1 adopters, and dividing by 52 weeks results in ~ 1,226 new Afrezza prescriptions weekly (unless I goofed it up). Obviously we aren't anywhere near that, and of course the true adoption slope will be exponential, but then the whole train hasn't even cleared the station yet.

    Wait! There's More - roughly 15,000 adults are diagnosed with T1 diabetes each year, and we know from surveys that likely a minimum of 40% will choose Afrezza (could be as high as 60%). So, 15,000 X .40 equals 6,000 new T1s yearly - dividing by 52 weeks equals ~ 115 new T1 adopters per week to add to our 1,226 'other existing' T1s.

    Thus, it seems when things really get cooking in July/August, we can expect 'maybe' around 1341 weekly scripts just from our US T1 population. I think 4 years to capture 30% of existing T1s is being quite conservative. This exercise is just to demonstrate the potential - and just from T1s. In less than 4 years Afrezza will certainly be available in Europe, Asia, and likely globally.

    Feel free to point out any unlikely assumptions or errors.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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