My guess is at this point he views SNY in the driver's seat. Al would be asked questions about target population, expected market capture, likely pricing, etc. etc., - all stuff which SNY may not wish discussed at this time. There is nothing for us to do now but wait, as we are facing a likely considerable amount of months before another catalyst rolls around. Your angst at a number of things, all of which tend to put the wind at shorty's back, is understandable. Personally, I just don't think Al is all that interested in whether retail is having a rough time of it in the short run - not that he is an insensitive snooty individual, but just that he likely thinks more globally and in longer time frames. For instance it would be a nice gesture, if nothing else, for Al to purchase shares on the open market as demonstration of his confidence in MNKD and the view that shares are an exceptional value under $7 - but I just doubt he really cares that much. For all we know, Al's attention may now be devoted predominantly to one of his new ventures, and he is just so glad to be rid of the stress which MNKD has presented for so long; Al may finally feel free again - lol.
Thanks for posting and sticking around. I used a 15% discount, but didn't know if that was ballpark. I will go back and recalculate a bit. Roughly $7B was spot on for what I have figured, but I was thinking by 2017/2018, or sometime in 2017 - allows for say 2.5 years of commercial availability; and I was figuring US and hadn't 'credited' any contribution for global sales just to be safe. Someone pointed out that my model was a revenue split vs a profit split so I have to call Matt to try and get some clarification of the true US target population and his input on the profit split to determine how I need to adjust my s/p projections which may need to come down a bit. I think every one, present long company excepted of course, is going to be surprised at the huge market capture in just the first 6 months - this is nice cause we can pick up the 2016 calls for way cheaper than they 'should' be. June/July is going to see MNKD share price just go vertical, sans a market meltdown in progress, is my suspicion.
Keep posting pertinent info and observations, and don't let the short bashers win any more than they already have.
No, that is just my guesstimate, somewhat based on surveys which MNKD reportedly cited previously.
It is possible that you are correct, I mean that is the basis of the short argument. Personally, I think the bong-like inhaler which Exubera utilized was a huge factor in its commercial failure, not to mention that Afrezza/technosphere technology is just superior as regards efficacy to Exubera. I have to believe that SNY did extremely thorough due diligence regarding the commercial acceptance likely to achieved by Afrezza - we know MNKD did, and SNY was apparently convinced that it was at least going to be profitable for them. We aren't privy to whether they share Al's conviction that Afrezza will be one of the all time greatest selling drugs/treatments of all times, but I bet they will do their best to make it so. I also strongly suspect they will pursue the huge pre-diabetes market with a vengeance. My guess is that Afrezza will rapidly achieve 10% target market capture, like blitzkrieg rapid - probably within the first 3 months of availability. The nice thing is we won't have more than another year before we begin to get decent early adoption data.
No, the dissemination date is on the 26th, they came out on the 11th already.
Not forgetting them just have more concrete figures from US. From prior work it is evident that the US acccounts for approximately 1/2 half of the dollars spent on insulin, even though the US makes up less than 1/4 of the world's diabetics. Thus I think you can roughly double MNKD's revenues from the US, but that will take time. I only figured out 2 to 3 years, and I am not sure what kind of global market capture we can expect by 2017.
From cphammer's previous post:
"4.2 million patients are currently on prandial RAA.
1.7 million take a basal insulin only but would benefit from prandial control
15.2 million type 2 patients of which 40% are out of control (6.8 million) currently take no insulin therapy.
So when you read market valuations of the potential for Afrezza based solely on the prandial injectable market understand its much bigger..."
*33% market capture. Just do the math - 4.2M (on prandial) + 1.7M + 6.8M who are poorly controlled with orals only (I will only take 33% of this roughly 7M, not from the whole 15.2M figure). We now have roughly 13M diabetics as our US target, so taking our 1/3 capture of these, or 13M X .33 - thus 4.29M diabetics at $1700 annual (pfg's discounted wholesale figure), gives us approx. $7.29B annual revenue which must be split 65/35 with SNY, which gives us $2.55B annual revenue by when? - maybe we can capture this 33% of the "current potential market" by 2017/2018?
*Mind you, this market is increasing by 12.4% annually, so in reality, our 2014 $2.55B revenue stream would be $3.62B by 2017 *Also - these are US figures - safe to eventually double for global market. So let's say $3.62B US revenue by sometime in 2017 (BP split taken out). So let's extrapolate - if we use 10 X P/S similar to CELG's as a ballpark MC metric - this gives us a MC of ~ $36B, which translates to a share price of approximately $80 (assuming 450M outstanding). Or you could take the $3.62B and apply a 14 X P/S metric similar to REGN's, which gives a ~ $50.7B MC, divided by 450 shares and you get a s/p of ~ $112 Or we could even use a 21 X P/S metric, similar to that used to value PCYC, which gives us a share price of roughly $169
*One thing is clear - even if one wishes to apply a conservative valuation metric, MNKD shares are a 10-bagger from the current $7.00 area; and one can argue our tax-loss carryforward easily justifies at least a mid-range 14 X P/S metric similar to REGN's
Sentiment: Strong Buy
BTW - for those who are not aware - 'PPG' is postprandial plasma glucose.
pfg, taking the company's own words that Afrezza would be priced comparatively with the premium priced insulin pens and then figuring in for wholesale and discounts, came up with a figure of $1700 annually for a diabetic utilizing Afrezza 3 times per day - I just reduced his figure a bit to be conservative.
Now of course these particulars are in the hands of SNY now.....and it is very possible they will decide to price Afrezza below the 'pens', at least for a time. These are estimations for the US market - and we all know that we in the US pay a sig. premium to about all the rest of the known world - something to take into account when extrapolating for global sales/profits.
Seemed balanced. Not particularly in depth, but it is hard to argue with the premise that the MNKD/SNY deal was not received all that favorably.
Apparently battling severe depression of late, maybe for a long while. Depression is such an absolute killer. What a terrible sad thing. Such talent.
Safe to say the shorts have dug in for the fight ahead. It is comforting that the shorts are already so far extended beyond what is prudent, and though not exactly flirting with oversold, we did turn back attempts to break $8.30
Shorts and the Market will provide an excellent double-down opportunity before sales begin to ramp.
Nope, just a realist - been long from a bit over $3.....have done well, but quite disappointed in the deal; future is still bright for MNKD once sales slope is established.
No question - shorts won this one for now. If market weakness returns, we could see MNKD in the $7 range. The upfront cash just killed it; never even considered under $300M. I guess Al finally had no choice.