Afrezza's time is almost upon us, and I am choosing to believe there is that serious, even aggressive partnership interest which management has alluded to previously.
My guess is that we are just a bit too early to expect heavy accumulation, though I think I read that Vanguard group and BlackRock have been slowly increasing their positions. I think the heavy majority of the WS heavy hitters are just too risk avers to jump in until they at least see the FDA is going to green light the NDA as is. Most of WS money, except for the hedge funds, are very conservative - if they would even consider a developmental biotech, it is going to be with caution, and then you have the previous FDA CRLs, not to mention Pfizer's experience with Exubera (I know it is a completely different animal, but they may not).
Notwithstanding the FDA's rather unsavory and well deserved reputation, I think the lack of heavy accumulation is just an indication of caution, not an indication of foreknowledge. The risk-reward here seems so heavily weighted toward reward that I fully understand your frustration. We need to remember that this time around Al is going for European-global approval also, so even if FDA were to still have a trick or two planned, they will not be able to stop Afrezza. Just have plenty of dry powder ready to capitalize on any significant dips.
Just so we remember the source.
Good that you understand the use of the ignore button, but it seems to me that he has done a great service to any new person which drops in to try and get a quick handle on what MannKind and Afrezza is all about. Of course you don't really seem to get any of your post recommended much, so I guess that might be quite annoying.
So you would have the board monopolized by shorts who quickly scroll informative posts off into oblivion? Maybe if you contributed something meaningful like pfg or afrezzauser, your opinion would carry a bit more weight?
Agreed. Al might begin considering offers in the $60 range, no way would he do anything but laugh at an offer for $15.
Considering the potential of even say a 10% capture of the global prandial insulin market, and that figure seems laughably conservative, it is a bit puzzling why we are not seeing much heavier inst. accumulation. Only thing I can figure is most are waiting on the FDA's final response to the NDA.
If they ever take us down below $4.50 again, I will be buying.
Thanks clevans1. About the only explanation for the lack of apparent accumulation is that the potential which Afrezza represents just isn't widely grasped, on a large enough scale anyway. Of course the big players already know, and most seem to be waiting a bit longer, so my effort is pretty much directed at the casual retail who pops over to peruse the board and who may be starting their DD efforts.
Relatively recent surveys involving over 600 physicians indicate that the capture rate is more likely to be 25% of the prandial insulin market, at least in the US, within the first 12 to 18 months of Afrezza availability. Note that MNKD has already purchased enough bulk insulin to produce roughly $10 billion worth of product, and the company, due to tax loss carry-forward, will likely pay no taxes for the first few years; consider the implications of these last two facts on margins. Think about it. Insulin use is increasing worldwide from 10 to 15 percent annually. Prandial insulin (before meals) is probably about 75% of the insulin used. Global sales of prandial insulin will be somewhere in the ballpark of $20 billion come 2015/2016. Only a 10% capture of that market results in $2 billion in revenue, and the surveys indicate that 25% capture is likely to be achieved relatively quickly. So we are looking at realistic, well grounded revenue projections of $4 billion by what - 2016? Using realistic, even conservative, value metrics it is easy to see that MNKD share price potential could be headed for a 20-fold increase over the next few years. Also consider that not only is insulin use globally increasing about 12% annually, but diabetics, once they progress to actual insulin use, stay on the injections for many years - it isn't like a cancer drug where most patients die within a year or two.
Anyway, hope this helps any new people to grasp the potential which Afrezza has in the marketplace. The risk/reward is astounding here, especially when one considers that Afrezza has been demonstrated to be completely safe and without any serious side-effects.
An affirmative decision on the NDA with the 74-day letter just means they have accepted it (the application) 'as is', it only relates to the final approval in that the company knows there aren't deficiencies in the application. Still, it is a small hurdle to be achieved on the way to actual FDA approval, and it of course means that the timelines won't have to be pushed out further.
Seems that MNKD is at the mercy of the shorts to move the share price at will, up and down. What BP, even if they are seriously considering a deal before actual FDA approval, would agree to anything even remotely fair and binding, until they are sure at least that the NDA is accepted? I guess they could sign and announce a tiered, heavily back-end loaded, deal which is fair, but it isn't implemented, even the first cash payment until FDA gives the thumbs up on the NDA, but the shorts seem way too at ease with that possibility. And it appears that there just isn't any significant accumulation going on by other powerful WS players to really pressure the shorts right now.
Agree with your complaints, but my guess is the real blame goes to Matt Pfeffer, he is the CFO afterall. In the end, it doesn't matter who structured the deal, or allowed it to be structured in the way it was, or even who signed off on it. It is as it is. All it will take to reverse things is for one or two of the big players to start serious accumulation, but of course they are waiting for it to drop further. And everybody is on hold, all the big money anyway, until the FDA gives at least the final nod of acceptance on the NDA.
Anything to say kevinmik? Is my wild conjecture accurate about you going negative if you don't get your 'big news'?
There are plenty of other bios which aren't facing such opposition. Afrezza is a serious financial threat to a couple of huge and powerful Big Pharma players. The shorts are probably working directly on behalf of these dirty pharmaceuticals.
Sorry to say so, but you sound like you are getting ready to say that since your 'big news' wasn't announced you have decided to dump everything. Whatever. These shorts are seldom caught flat footed and unaware. Hopefully there is some share price boosting 'big news', but don't hold your breath. These shorts seem committed to constantly keeping, even adding to the pressure. we have seen how easily they dropped us to $4.35ish not long ago, and I suspect they can take us considerably lower with about as much ease.