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Linn Co, LLC Message Board

finance.phil 5 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 27, 2014 10:00 AM Member since: Feb 28, 2013
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  • The following is a direct copy and paste email from a NYC-based Nephrologist friend who I spoke with recently regarding Rayaldee.

    “Bottom line from me... medically, we can't imagine doctors changing practice to this drug based on this evidence. And mind you that this "evidence" is heavily drug company influenced. I couldn't find a single thing mentioned in the medical literature about the need to develop such a drug. Google it and you'll see that everything comes from business and investor websites. One of the main things we look at when we look at a study is drug company sponsorship. In our evidence-based medicine eyes, when a study is heavily drug company sponsored it has less meaning due to bias. Any academic looking at the data would scoff at it. The days when drug companies could influence doctor's prescribing practices by taking them out to dinner and paying for vacations are over.

    It's only a small percentage of Stage 3 and 4 CKD patients who develop PTH/vit D/Ca/phosphate problems and those that do are treated with non-calciferol forms of vitamin D. And NO STUDIES have shown that vitamin D supplementation actually improves survival in these patients. There are two drugs that that have revolutionized CKD patient care in the last 20 years: sensipar and aranesp. I don't think this new form of vitamin D will make much difference. Besides, all the studies lack clinical end points which doctors care about. For example, they cite vitamin D and PTH levels as evidence however this is NOT a hard clinical endpoint. A hard clinical endpoint which would change practice would be if Rayaldee showed improved survival/less mortality or less vascular events...

  • Reply to

    Why is this stock down ???

    by johnnyboypappas Oct 27, 2014 9:54 AM
    finance.phil finance.phil Oct 27, 2014 10:00 AM Flag

    Because the results of the stress tests were very bad for the broader European banking sector, so the entire cohort is being sold, regardless of whether or not your bank has a clean bill of health.

    I actually suspected that this would be the case. Long term you're still golden as far as Alpha Bank is concerned, so don't sweat it. It is a buying opportunity if anything.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • finance.phil finance.phil Aug 28, 2014 2:38 PM Flag


    I'm not short or long. I'm potentially interested in taking a long position, though. I am conducting full analysis Rayaldee as I believe that ultimately it will be Rayaldee that will potentially drive the stock to much higher levels.

    I want to encourage open, sensible, civilized and objective discussion on Rayaldee and its chances.


  • Reply to

    Phase III testing?

    by finance.phil Aug 24, 2014 2:40 PM
    finance.phil finance.phil Aug 27, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    Hi Burnaka,

    Thank you for your post, I appreciate you taking the time to explain some of these things. Can you confirm that Rayldee was given an exemption from head to head trials under the SPA? Are you able to provide a link that implicitly states as such? I do know they are conducting Phase III under SPA and did wonder if this is why there is no head to head test versus current standard care, but cannot find any information on the exact nature of the SPA.

    You appear to be coming from an investor’s stand point making quite logical conclusions. Again, I fully understand Rayldee’s significant potential yield over Calcitriol. I am attempting to come from the medical profession’s (in particular the nephrologist’s) point of view, and from lengthy discussions with nephrologist, one thing became very clear – They won’t be prescribing differently from how they do now in absence of hard clinical data. Press releases from OPKO saying how great Rayaldee is won’t cut it. They want hard data.

    My part in all this is fairly simple, I’m very attracted to the OPKO story, I’m close to going long. 22% short interest in the name is a double-edged sword, though. On the plus-side it will undoubtedly produce one almighty short squeeze on positive fundamentals. On the downside, it also means there’s clearly a large number of people out there who think Rayaldee and/or OPKO as a whole is going to tank, the sheer size of this group means they cannot be ignored. For me, this stock is all about Rayaldee. I need to be 99% positive that demand from nephrologists and endocrinologists will be there, that there are big huge competitive barriers surrounding the drug, and that the insurance companies will pay for it.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • finance.phil finance.phil Aug 28, 2014 4:19 PM Flag

    You can launch as many personal insults and barbs at my friend as you like. At the end of the day, he is a highly experienced and fully qualified nephrologist working in the field in NYC. His views are 100% completely impartial and free from bias. As a long investor, you cannot say the same about your own views, Burnaka.

    I do take his views with a grain of salt, skeptical doctors haven't prevented me from previously making successful bets on various biotechs down the years. As I stated to you in another thread, I want be as sure as possible in three areas:

    1. That Rayaldee does exactly what it says in the label
    2. That there are huge competitive barriers around the drug
    3. That doctors and insurances companies will go for it

    I have a red flag on that third point...

    Sentiment: Hold

20.07-0.82(-3.93%)Nov 26 4:00 PMEST

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